Calculating the weight of the horse(Estimated)Lbs

[StuartH]

Hi ARAZI91

I hope this is one of your better days,

"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson

This is what started me on this journey

Justify’s Kentucky Derby Body Weight

= (1.712049/.02682) *9.81*2.205 = (1,381.8 -126) = 1,255.8 Lbs

Weight Calculation for Springtime Mojo at Remington Park
Horse: Springtime Mojo 1st Race
Racetrack; Remington Park Date: September 19, 20l8 Race off at 7:08p
Temp: 860F Wind: 11 MPH
Race Distance: 1M
Approximate Distance run by horse (ft): 5,386 Time of Race(sec): 99.64
Initial Velocity: 55.96 ft/ sec Velocity (Pace): 54.05 ft/sec Acceleration: -.011742 Terminal Velocity: 52.12 ft/sec Assigned Wgt: 120 Lbs
Horse’s Weight Estimate: 1,269.3 Lbs

d-Displacement(metres)
t-Time(seconds)
V1-Initial Velocity(m/s)
VF-Final Velocity(m/s)
a-Acceleration(m/s^2)

Displacement = V1*t+1/2*a*t^2
Initial Velocity V1=(d-(1/2*a*t^2))/t
Final Velocity VF = V1+(a*t)
Acceleration a =(VF-V1)/t

Acceleration = (2*distance/time Squared)/9.81) 9.81 is gravity and a constant

I will come back later with more to follow

 

[ARAZI91]

Hi ARAZI91

I hope this is one of your better days,

"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson

This is what started me on this journey

Justify’s Kentucky Derby Body Weight

= (1.712049/.02682) *9.81*2.205 = (1,381.8 -126) = 1,255.8 Lbs

Weight Calculation for Springtime Mojo at Remington Park
Horse: Springtime Mojo 1st Race
Racetrack; Remington Park Date: September 19, 20l8 Race off at 7:08p
Temp: 860F Wind: 11 MPH
Race Distance: 1M
Approximate Distance run by horse (ft): 5,386 Time of Race(sec): 99.64
Initial Velocity: 55.96 ft/ sec Velocity (Pace): 54.05 ft/sec Acceleration: -.011742 Terminal Velocity: 52.12 ft/sec Assigned Wgt: 120 Lbs
Horse’s Weight Estimate: 1,269.3 Lbs

d-Displacement(metres)
t-Time(seconds)
V1-Initial Velocity(m/s)
VF-Final Velocity(m/s)
a-Acceleration(m/s^2)

Displacement = V1*t+1/2*a*t^2
Initial Velocity V1=(d-(1/2*a*t^2))/t
Final Velocity VF = V1+(a*t)
Acceleration a =(VF-V1)/t

Acceleration = (2*distance/time Squared)/9.81) 9.81 is gravity and a constant

I will come back later with more to follow

Yep , i remember the post now , i wish you well on that journey. Hope that Pdf helped i posted with other parts of the puzzle.

 

[ARAZI91]

Remember Baffert came out after the Kentucky Derby and stated that Justify's weight going into that race was 1268 lbs so Old Cratos was very close with this formula. After his Belmont win his weight going in pre-race was 1380lbs

 

[ARAZI91]

i also remember Cratos stating that his team used Trackus data if available for approx distance travelled so keep that in my mind.

 

[Outlander]

so if 2 horses run in the same race and dead heat then we can assume the same body weight or do we need more information than distance and time

 

[Sandhog]

Though I know nothing of the formula, my guess is that assumption would likely be incorrect, O Outlander.
I saw many a big horse and little horse "fight out"a close finish.

Unless size is no indicator of weight, I'd be surprised if their weights were the same.

Can Australian racing tell us anything about this?

In boxing, which is in weight divisions, there can be quite a difference in contenders' weights by actual fight time, and even after the contest is just over.

 

[Outlander]

Remember Baffert came out after the Kentucky Derby and stated that Justify's weight going into that race was 1268 lbs so Old Cratos was very close with this formula. After his Belmont win his weight going in pre-race was 1380lbs

looking at HK data where you have the body weights of every horse its hard to believe Justify put on 112lb in a month even with the help of Bafferts special tinctures ?

 

[Outlander]

Though I know nothing of the formula, my guess is that assumption would likely be incorrect, O Outlander.
I saw many a big horse and little horse "fight out"a close finish.

Unless size is no indicator of weight, I'd be surprised if their weights were the same.

Can Australian racing tell us anything about this?

i sure it could be checked within an inch of its life with Hong Kong data

 

[ARAZI91]

looking at HK data where you have the body weights of every horse its hard to believe Justify put on 112lb in a month even with the help of Bafferts special tinctures ?

Justify was a monster really - Baffert had already spoken about his size/build as a 2yo and why he was given him time, hence no runs but that's the figures his Bobness quoted in public - i have no idea of the validity of them or ever will have. Given his recent behaviour you either take them as true or with a pinch of salt.

 

[ARAZI91]

i sure it could be checked within an inch of its life with Hong Kong data

People talk about bringing the weighing horses concept to the UK, but i'd guarantee you that HK with it's set up is more ideal than the UK for this kind of stuff - here you have horses travelling 300 mile plus daily , what about the Irish horses travelling over - travelling in itself causes weight loss in horses - then there is the different times trainers arrive at the track - it could never be decentralised like it is in HK and that could lead to misinformation being fed out to the public.

 

[ARAZI91]

looking at HK data where you have the body weights of every horse its hard to believe Justify put on 112lb in a month even with the help of Bafferts special tinctures ?

Special tinctures aside, the horse was still developing and had only 3 very easy races before the KD in a short space of time by US standards. Some really special 3yos can develop very quickly and by each race. It's interesting that his stride frequency and stride length were a lot different in the Belmont than his 2 previous TC victories where his stride shortened dramatically both times. He had a larger than avg stride , clocked as large as over 27ft early in the KD but shortened to around 23ft in both the KD and the Preakness - this was the complete opposite of the Belmont where his stride sustained much deeper into the race. Maybe the horse had really grown into himself by then.

 

[ARAZI91]

Special tinctures aside, the horse was still developing and had only 2 very easy races before the KD in a short space of time by US standards. Some really special 3yos can develop very quickly and by each race. It's interesting that his stride frequency and stride length were a lot different in the Belmont than his 2 previous TC victories where his stride shortened dramatically both times. He had a larger than avg stride , clocked as large as over 27ft early in the KD but shortened to around 23ft in both the KD and the Preakness - this was the complete opposite of the Belmont where his stride increased from the middle to the latter stages of the race. Maybe the horse had really grown into himself by then.

Or Bob's vets had him on a "paste" diet

 

[Outlander]

Special tinctures aside, the horse was still developing and had only 2 very easy races before the KD in a short space of time by US standards. Some really special 3yos can develop very quickly and by each race. It's interesting that his stride frequency and stride length were a lot different in the Belmont than his 2 previous TC victories where his stride shortened dramatically both times. He had a larger than avg stride , clocked as large as over 27ft early in the KD but shortened to around 23ft in both the KD and the Preakness - this was the complete opposite of the Belmont where his stride sustained much deeper into the race. Maybe the horse had really grown into himself by then.

Not doubting the horse was 1380lb in the Belmont just the 112lb in a month seems extreme weight gain especially as he had another race in between

 

[ARAZI91]

so if 2 horses run in the same race and dead heat then we can assume the same body weight or do we need more information than distance and time

NEVER on one sample O Outlander -i simply stated that the formula was pretty close to what was quoted publicly by the horses trainer

Not doubting the horse was 1380lb in the Belmont just the 112lb in a month seems extreme weight gain especially as he had another race in between

i think if we were privy to elite developing 3yo physical weights and Western training methods, we my be surprised ,we shall probably never know as the logistics of weighing in the UK would probably be problematic and maybe misinformation to punters plus the top owners seem against it, as their paying the upkeep of the horse so see this info as a "perk" or "privilege" of that.

 

[Outlander]

NEVER on one sample O Outlander -i simply stated that the formula was pretty close to what was quoted publicly by the horses trainer

i think if we were privy to elite developing 3yo physical weights and Western training methods, we my be surprised ,we shall probably never know as the logistics of weighing in the UK would probably be problematic and maybe misinformation to punters plus the top owners seem against it, as their paying the upkeep of the horse so see this info as a "perk" or "privilege" of that.

Yes difficult obviously looking at HK data because they show body weights, but most horse in HK are imported and don’t race there as 2yo , of the better ones that did race as 2yo a increase in body weight of around 30- 40lbs in a year seems a generalisation, maybe with the US horse and all the steroids and creams maybe 112 lb in a month is doable but I’m not convinced , Mark Johnston who wrote that article I’d love to ask him if he had ever had a 3yo put on 112lb in a month racing 3 times, he’s probably weighed 100s of such horse , be interesting to know if that was physically possible

 

[ARAZI91]

There are more state of the art methods now anyway including accurate remote non-contact weighing performed with machine vision

so if 2 horses run in the same race and dead heat then we can assume the same body weight or do we need more information than distance and time

if you look at the formula again there is an "acceleration" function , both those horses who dead heat could have different velocity values so possibly that would affect the calculations

 

[ARAZI91]

not as extreme but Arrogate another late developer apparently put on 86lbs before his trip to Dubai for the WC - and lost 56 on the way home due to travelling etc

 

[ARAZI91]

if an ex-protege of mine can develop this to biomechanically score a horses walk (and gallop)in 8 months then you can be rest assured that remote non-contact machine vision is being used now to estimate horses weights - sire weight data is available in the UK as well as height , plenty of data from HK and Japan - the computer only needs the data

 

[Outlander]

There are more state of the art methods now anyway including accurate remote non-contact weighing performed with machine vision

if you look at the formula again there is an "acceleration" function , both those horses who dead heat could have different velocity values so possibly that would affect the calculations

Was just I looked at Sha Tin data looked at the first dead heat I could find one weighed 1094lbs the other 1272lbs (1200 m race)
to be honest I’m not clever enough to calculate the formula all the Vs etc made me give up before I started .
What would the formula make of this scenario

DATE

RNO

COURSE

CLASS

DIST

GOING*

POS

HORSE

AGE

WT

JA

BodyWeight

DRAW

DBTN

TIME

Section1

Section2

Section3

07/11/2021​

154​

SHA TIN

2​

1200​

G

1​

TRILLION WIN

5​

127​

0​

1272​

1​

0.00

68.58​

23.79​

21.79​

23.00​

07/11/2021​

154​

SHA TIN

2​

1200​

G

1​

FANTASTIC WAY

4​

117​

0​

1094​

10​

0.00

68.58​

24.27​

21.67​

22.64​

 

[ARAZI91]

Though I know nothing of the formula, my guess is that assumption would likely be incorrect, O Outlander.
I saw many a big horse and little horse "fight out"a close finish.

Unless size is no indicator of weight, I'd be surprised if their weights were the same.

Can Australian racing tell us anything about this?

In boxing, which is in weight divisions, there can be quite a difference in contenders' weights by actual fight time, and even after the contest is just over.

they do not weigh horses in Aus S Sandhog