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Both teams to score - No

D

djb38

Gelding
Thanks to Delboy99 Delboy99 for inspiring this thread with his alternative btts thread.

never really been a fan of the btts but after following delboys thread I’ve been looking at the btts market a lot and am interested in the games that have a strong favourite. A game where you might expect the favourite to win comfortably. Yes we will always get the underdog poaching a goal here and there but the odds for the btts-no,imo offer decent value in comparison to the chances of the underdog scoring.

in addition, but not primarily, I may look at cross trading 1. the match odds (laying the strong favourite) 2. Correct score market to cover 2.1, 3.1 and 3.2 score lines, along with backing the btts-no market

still at the paper trade stage and I’ll list games of interest
 
Belarus reserve league

Neman v gorodeya 12 noon ko
Btts no is available at odds of 2.0 on exchange. Paper trade stake 2 units

gorodeya have lost 22 and drawn 3 out of 25 games so far, scoring 16 goals in process. Needless to say they are bottom of league playing 5th placed neman
 
Good start with what looked like a comfortable 2.0 win to the strong favourite Neman. Stats suggest it was closer with underdog gaining 4 shots on target, however low quality striker(s) may have played a part.

should have said I decided on a stake of 2 units based on confidence of result. Stakes will range between 1-3 units, 3 being a banker and 1 being a little uncertain.

as staking is with betfair and Ive opted for 2% commission I’ll use this for p/l record.

1 win / 1 bet
p/l +1.96 units
 
djb38 said:
Thanks to @
Delboy99
Delboy99 for inspiring this thread with his alternative btts thread
Click to expand...
..... congratulations on your presentation of another system apparently engineered from my Alternative BTTS thread. Great to see the football section expanding a little further into an otherwise racing orientated site. Will look on with interest and wish you and your system every success. ;)
 
There’s a few things that I like about this system (which is unusual for me!) as follows:

1. you’re able to assess game for first 20minutes or so and then get involved in play at still decent odds
2. Option to cash out if underdog appears to be doing well, at most likely a profit as odds should still move favourably lower
3. Works ok on low liquid matches (Neman game only had 1k matched during full game)
4. Backing the no btts offers plenty of time prematch and inplay (as long as underdog doesn’t score early) to get amounts/decisions matched/correct without too much pressure
 
I’ll aim for 1 selection per day (don’t hold your breath!) and that way it will hopefully be closer to a banker stake of 3 units

Tomorrows selection is a nice one and I’ve swerved the obvious choice favourites such as Real Madrid game and Bayern game (Bayern leaking goals atm) and gone for a peachy Austrian cup match, here’s why:


On average SC Wiener Neustadt score 0.29 goals and concede 1.71 goals per match. 0% of SC Wiener Neustadt'smatches end with both teams scoring and their average total goals per match is 2. Wiener Neustadt has scored a total of 2 goals this season. Wiener Neustadt has conceded a total of 12 goals this season

so Saturdays selection is
16.00 Sc wiener Neustadt v rapid Vienna
Btts -no 1.88-2.0 range
Stake 3 units...still paper trade but I will prematch trade the market to get an average sp range which I guesstimate to be between 1.88 and 2.0
 
djb38 said:
I’ll aim for 1 selection per day (don’t hold your breath!) and that way it will hopefully be closer to a banker stake of 3 units

Tomorrows selection is a nice one and I’ve swerved the obvious choice favourites such as Real Madrid game and Bayern game (Bayern leaking goals atm) and gone for a peachy Austrian cup match, here’s why:


On average SC Wiener Neustadt score 0.29 goals and concede 1.71 goals per match. 0% of SC Wiener Neustadt'smatches end with both teams scoring and their average total goals per match is 2. Wiener Neustadt has scored a total of 2 goals this season. Wiener Neustadt has conceded a total of 12 goals this season

so Saturdays selection is
16.00 Sc wiener Neustadt v rapid Vienna
Btts -no 1.88-2.0 range
Stake 3 units...still paper trade but I will prematch trade the market to get an average sp range which I guesstimate to be between 1.88 and 2.0
Click to expand...
Good thread D djb38 ... contains all the things that make threads interesting to follow.

Personally I tend to avoid cup game betting as they aren't necessarily managed the same way as league matches, but your stats seem to stand up to justify your prediction. Good luck - will follow with great interest.
 
retriever said:
Well, I'm just hoping you two don't go and pick the same blinking matches!! :confused:

And credit to paulb164 paulb164 for starting the BTTS thing! :D
Where is that boy!!??
Click to expand...
LOL - sorry to say a combination of work commitments and losing a bit of faith in betting on football at the moment has meant I haven't been on here as much as before.
 
paulb164 said:
Good thread D djb38 ... contains all the things that make threads interesting to follow.

Personally I tend to avoid cup game betting as they aren't necessarily managed the same way as league matches, but your stats seem to stand up to justify your prediction. Good luck - will follow with great interest.
Click to expand...

you’re right and I meant to say that this system flies in the face of the ‘standard’ requirements, in terms of low liquidity, includes cup games etc. I’m approaching it with lower expectations hence the paper trading. What’s bugging me atm is that there’ll be a raft of games today where the btts-no comes in, it’s just finding the right way to nail them.
I, too, fall in and out of systems too easily, so it would be nice to get one right for a change
 
D djb38

Good to see you back mate it's hard work getting consistent systems to work for football and getting harder for some reason to turn a profit day in day out BTTS not something I have ever looked at tbh so good luck with the idea 👌
 
footysystems said:
D djb38

Good to see you back mate it's hard work getting consistent systems to work for football and getting harder for some reason to turn a profit day in day out BTTS not something I have ever looked at tbh so good luck with the idea 👌
Click to expand...
I don't think I've ever found or come up with a system that 'turned a profit day in day out'... I'm just happy if it makes a decent and semi-consistent profit. More's the pity ! :violin:
 
djb38 said:
I’ll aim for 1 selection per day (don’t hold your breath!) and that way it will hopefully be closer to a banker stake of 3 units

Tomorrows selection is a nice one and I’ve swerved the obvious choice favourites such as Real Madrid game and Bayern game (Bayern leaking goals atm) and gone for a peachy Austrian cup match, here’s why:


On average SC Wiener Neustadt score 0.29 goals and concede 1.71 goals per match. 0% of SC Wiener Neustadt'smatches end with both teams scoring and their average total goals per match is 2. Wiener Neustadt has scored a total of 2 goals this season. Wiener Neustadt has conceded a total of 12 goals this season

so Saturdays selection is
16.00 Sc wiener Neustadt v rapid Vienna
Btts -no 1.88-2.0 range
Stake 3 units...still paper trade but I will prematch trade the market to get an average sp range which I guesstimate to be between 1.88 and 2.0
Click to expand...
... and why I avoid betting on cup games... unlucky D djb38 - Weiner Neustadt sneaked a goal in !

1602953249702.png
 
paulb164 said:
... and why I avoid betting on cup games... unlucky D djb38 - Weiner Neustadt sneaked a goal in !

View attachment 90521
Click to expand...

yes they got a penalty unfortunately and killed the bet off early on which wasn’t good.
Although the odds ended up being irrelevant, they weren’t as generous as I hoped although I did get £16 matched at 1.88 and laid off at 1.77 well before ko

2 bets/ 1 win
P/l -1.04
 
Delboy99 said:
... That was seven days ago, found anything yet or have you packed it in? ;)
Click to expand...

sorry I’m reliably unreliable on this forum Delboy99 Delboy99
Work keeps jumping in the way and I never have/make time to update threads in the way so many of you do on here.
Anyway, looks like some good u21s games later on today so will investigate and report back in a bit...
 
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