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Betting a MASSIVE amount on a sure thing...

C

Choby1988

Newbie
So with Bet365, if i take a game that's 85 mins in and 3-0 and bet £1000 on the winning team, i win £2.00.

Not a great amount at all, but if i did this say... on 10 games a day, thats 20.00 guaranteed. £140 for the week.

Dpes anyone else so anything similar to this? I know technically, the other team equalise on 5 minutes bit it's never gonna happen. Just gotta get over that fear of betting so much money.
 
ArkRoyal said:
If it can happen, it will!
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Not to mention tying up ten grand in an online betting site every day, knowing that every loser will mean you need 500 winning bets just to get back into profit.
Not sure if I could be arsed to be honest, even if I did have that much spare time and money.
 
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"A gambler has told an internet forum how he lost more than £4,000 backing Angola to win their African Cup of Nations opener against Mali when they were holding a 4-0 lead. The crazy fool, who calls himself Big Matt on the forum, claims to have put £4,400 on Angola to win in the 78th minute when they were coasting to a 4-0 victory.

Big Matt thought he was onto a dead cert that would have netted him a massive return of, erm, £44 profit, but unfortunately for him Mali staged a fightback in the final minutes of the match and the game ended 4-4. The 19-year-old student reckons his massive loss will cost him his place at university (we reckon the money in his Betfair account was a student loan, which probably arrived in his bank account about a week ago!)."

Remember seeing this a while ago. Think it may have been fake, but still shows it could happen.
 
how many games a day are 3-0 at 85 mins and if you think you would get on bet after bet when they happened you are mental if you need to seek attention go and seek it in the right place screwball
 
mike 68 said:
how many games a day are 3-0 at 85 mins and if you think you would get on bet after bet when they happened you are mental if you need to seek attention go and seek it in the right place screwball
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Appreciate the sentiment M mike 68 ,but for better or for worse we tend to give new posters the benefit of the doubt for a while.
Btw when I went to uni way back when, I qualified for a full grant of £500 a term.
Never had to pay it back though.
That was the last sure thing that I experienced
 
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Usually everyday at least 1 horse gets beaten at odds of 1.01 (1/1000) in play. I realize it is very different from football but at the odds it should work out to the same mathematical probability. There is no such thing as a sure thing. Better to look for value...
 
Choby1988 said:
So with Bet365, if i take a game that's 85 mins in and 3-0 and bet £1000 on the winning team, i win £2.00.

Not a great amount at all, but if i did this say... on 10 games a day, thats 20.00 guaranteed. £140 for the week.

Dpes anyone else so anything similar to this? I know technically, the other team equalise on 5 minutes bit it's never gonna happen. Just gotta get over that fear of betting so much money.
Click to expand...
Oh but it is...and only needs to happen once

Sigster said:
Not to mention whether or not your bookie of choice will actually let you continue over the long term.
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Would probably let it continue until the inevitable loser, then restrict or close the account so no chance of winning it back
 
JamesSmith said:
Usually everyday at least 1 horse gets beaten at odds of 1.01 (1/1000) in play. I realize it is very different from football but at the odds it should work out to the same mathematical probability. There is no such thing as a sure thing. Better to look for value...
Click to expand...

Yes i noticed when i use to trade with the geeks toy some huge amounts waiting to be laid at 1.01 maybe alot of it was BMs money i dont know, also one can learn alot from just watching the markets as well, often money would come for horses which on the form did not seem that great and still they would go in so i think their is a little more to it all than just form.

Of course with football it is a little different events can be up turned in minutes due not to form so much, but more to a few events seem to click at the right time and and we get what some would call a freak result or outcome.
 
Choby1988 said:
So with Bet365, if i take a game that's 85 mins in and 3-0 and bet £1000 on the winning team, i win £2.00.

Not a great amount at all, but if i did this say... on 10 games a day, thats 20.00 guaranteed. £140 for the week.

Dpes anyone else so anything similar to this? I know technically, the other team equalise on 5 minutes bit it's never gonna happen. Just gotta get over that fear of betting so much money.
Click to expand...
it can happen... for sure it will happen
 
This instant can see only one such, Los Angeles FC - Orange County Blues.
It's half time and Los Angeles are 3-0 up. The price is 1.005.
The biggest I remember was Olympiakos Piraeus v. OFI Crete. Olympiakos was 4-0 up, lost 4-5. It was an indifferent match but the Olympiakos team was a good one, with Lajos Detari playing. Here it is:

 
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Choby1988 said:
So with Bet365, if i take a game that's 85 mins in and 3-0 and bet £1000 on the winning team, i win £2.00.

Not a great amount at all, but if i did this say... on 10 games a day, thats 20.00 guaranteed. £140 for the week.

Dpes anyone else so anything similar to this? I know technically, the other team equalise on 5 minutes bit it's never gonna happen. Just gotta get over that fear of betting so much money.
Click to expand...
This sounds like a 1 way ticket to the poor house, for a start bet365 have a high margin, so you will be placing at under value, this means over the long run the % chance of a loss will work against you.. so you may bet £1000 time after time and win but ultimately the maths will beat you in the long run. Kyle Millet does a good video on the inverse of this theory, that is laying 1.01 or 1.02, with some caveats, you would need a bot but essentially in games that are a draw or games that are 1-0 or 0-1 when the odds hit 1.01 or 1.02 you lay the favourite, most of the time u lose but you only lose say 10p for £10 bet, if you win you win £10 or £9.80 on betfair, I've seen a few videos explaining the system, my caveats above are just an example, you would need to do some research to get the specific laying and cancelling criteria, hope this helps.
 
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Choby1988 said:
So with Bet365, if i take a game that's 85 mins in and 3-0 and bet £1000 on the winning team, i win £2.00.

Not a great amount at all, but if i did this say... on 10 games a day, thats 20.00 guaranteed. £140 for the week.

Dpes anyone else so anything similar to this? I know technically, the other team equalise on 5 minutes bit it's never gonna happen. Just gotta get over that fear of betting so much money.
Click to expand...
What you may find yourself doing sub-conciously is increasing the time-lapse of 5 minutes to 10 minutes and then maybe 15 or 20 as the wins rack up -but you will soon be in dangerous territory there as many teams have came back from 3-0 down in the last 15 to 20 mins. B Betulator above has also made some very excellent points regarding the inverse of this situation which is laying on the exchanges - but with bookmakers the math will eventually grind you down.
That "never gonna happen" phrase was stuff i used to hear in bookmakers shops all over the UK with various scenarios- that fact that > than 50% of the situations did happen made me realise that the game is probabilistic not deterministic.
 
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OnTheNod said:
Yes i noticed when i use to trade with the geeks toy some huge amounts waiting to be laid at 1.01 maybe alot of it was BMs money i dont know, also one can learn alot from just watching the markets as well, often money would come for horses which on the form did not seem that great and still they would go in so i think their is a little more to it all than just form.

Of course with football it is a little different events can be up turned in minutes due not to form so much, but more to a few events seem to click at the right time and and we get what some would call a freak result or outcome.
Click to expand...
There have been studies (Smartsig done one) done that show the more obvious the form for the direction of money ..in this case "a steam" then the more you will lose. The reverse of that situation , a horse with 5 duckeggs last 5 , not won in over 2 years etc were shown to be profitable even at closing odds.
Drifters were the same with horses that had obvious form and positive credentials losing more than a random drifter.
Not sure if this still holds up as the study was in the long ago.
Seem to remember a guy called Jack Houghton doing a similar study around 2008 for a Betfair blog and coming to the same conclusions.
 
Sigster said:
Not to mention whether or not your bookie of choice will actually let you continue over the long term.
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And there is this.......Bookmakers are not in the business of giving away "free money" especially Denise, your £140 quid a week or so would eat into her £263 million annual salary. :)
 
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I know two people who did that, back favourites at tiny odds.
In one case it was a success 4 times, the 5th time he lost. Was n't hurt by it but stopped doing it.
The other one also was n't hurt (he says) but also stopped it.
 
ArkRoyal said:
If it can happen, it will!
Click to expand...

I agree - if it can happen, it will :)

@Choby 1988 - if you want a strategy with recovery plans I can give you some examples.
There is one that has been around with much talk about being promising.
Personally, I don't like strategies that involve recovery plans.

Maybe this is something for your liking/taste ...

 
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