• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Another Question

twmills said:
Ok Not a very good start, now the excuses, I went back and checked everything I went through and found two errors the first was weight, I found I had added and subtracted the wrong way, the second was I used the books standard times for the calculations, which thinking about maybe I shouldn't have not really knowing how old they were. The book did say the best alternative was RP standards.
So when I changed the standard times and changed the weight calculation the other way, the result changed, and believe or not I would have had the winner, who was highest rated and the second home was second highest rated.
So having made the changes today is test 2, and the selection is Redcar 3:40 MOHEEB.
I wont keep posting the selections unless someone wants me to, I just wanted to share with you guys what I am doing.
What I will ask is how long should you test a system for, how many races do you give to find out if its any good or not?
Thanks
Click to expand...

is it possible to post spreadsheet up
tx
 
This is what I've have done by trying to follow the book, infact this is now my fourth attempt, so have not rated any races using it as yet.
When it come to weight of horse I have also included weight of jky.
 

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Where did you get the Horse Weight from, these aren't published for UK races are they?

AR
 
The weight of the horse come from chapter 3 in the book, the weight used is of a 2yo filly, its taken from research done by Dr Mostert, who came up with a weight a Thoroughbred would way, and as the horse grows its weight changes.
Because the book is in the inner sanctum I am not sure how much I can share.
 
Just having another quick look the weight is not used anywhere in the calculations although I have it in there, yet it should be, so again I can see I have gone wrong somewhere.
I have tried emailing from the email given, but it is an old NLT email address, so don't know if they still exist or what the new email might be.
 
The research done by Dr Mostert estimates a
Filly 2yo to be 950lb
Colt 2yo to be 1000lb
Filly 3yo to be 1050lb
Colt 3yo to be 1100lb
Mare 4yo to be 1250lb
and a 4yo+ to be 1300lb
 
twmills said:
The research done by Dr Mostert estimates a
Filly 2yo to be 950lb
Colt 2yo to be 1000lb
Filly 3yo to be 1050lb
Colt 3yo to be 1100lb
Mare 4yo to be 1250lb
and a 4yo+ to be 1300lb
Click to expand...
I don't know much about this rating thing, but I don't know how the above can help much
horses come in all sizes and you can get some very good small ones and some awfully bad big ones
I know that the late V O'Brien always said that the weight of a horse is very important (J Bolger also) and should be shown on the race card, like its shown at the greyhounds.
But this is only of use if you know what weight the horse was when it ran its best races and what it weighs going into todays race and only the stable knows that
 
Agree there Nedloh. A horse has a racing weight whether it be a sparely made 3yo or a 17hh beast.

Paul Mostert who did the figures used to rescue horses from neglect and used his figures for those horses. I'm not sure how pertinent they are to racehorses. Though I stand to be corrected.
 
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