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An old strategy Under 2.5 goals

S

Sputnik2012

Yearling
I will test an old strategy.
Where you cash out after around 10 min if there are no goals where the under 2.5 goal price drifts downwards.
Backing Under 2.5 goals with a 10£ stake.

You approximately make 10% of the 10£ stake and cash out.
If you lose you get around 4.5£ to cash out and then you back over 3.5 goals with another 10£ and repeat the process to reduce or recoup the loss.
If you lose again (a goal) then you get around 2£ loss to cash out.
So a double loss will be around 7£

So the trade needs a strike ratio of 70% to break even.

Ben at Ultimate Football Trading made a video about this strategy where people have been writing to him and telling him they had great success with this system.
Ben is sceptical and shows that in his video.

This made me curious so I will put this method to the test in this topic.

I have some rules I will add to improve the strategy and reduce losses when they occur.

1) I will use Betfair odds for the Under 2.5 goal market that indicate there will be goals, so when the price drift I get some nice ticks favouring my bet.
2) I will check the form where both Home and Away have no more than one or no goals between the 0 to 10 min mark for each previous 10 games.
3) I will check that average of the first goal scored are at 11 min mark or above for both teams.

So we have the likelihood of two teams scoring and will give us odds that will drift nicely downwards.
We have poor scoring between the 0 to 10 min mark.
And we make sure that overall there is no team that has the habit of scoring early goals, no matter if they play Home or Away.

4) I will use a split of four drip lays for each stake, so if there is an early goal I might save 25, 50, or 75% of the stake and if reaching 100 I would break even.
So this option of drip laying will reduce the overall losses significantly.

I use Europen A & B Leagues and Africa, Asian & Middle East Leagues.

Yesterday match

Premier League
Manchester City vs. Tottenham
The first goal was scored 44 min
Cash Out at 6 min mark with a 10% win.

Today match

Netherlands Eerste Divisie
Almere vs. De Graafschap
 
Tomorrow

2023-01-21

Germany Bundesliga
Cologne vs. Bremen
Time 18:30

Belgium First Div A
Mecheien vs. Kortrijk
Time 18:15

Netherlands Eredivisie
Waalwijk vs. Go Ahead
Time 21:00

Portugal Primeira Liga
Vitoria Guimaraes vs. Porto
Time 21:30

Turkey Sup Lig
Galatasaray vs. Antalyaspor
Time 17:00
 
I will change the selection, so all the Saturday Games are Voided except Belgium - Mecheien vs. Kortrijk.
The reason is that the first average goal doesn't give an honest picture of the overall performance.

I will look at the First Goal Scored Minutes percentage.
Where 0 to 15 min should have 10% or less.
This should indicate late-scoring teams.

Mechelen-vs-Kortrijk-21-January-2023-Soccerway-och-1-sida-till-Privat-Microsoft-Edge.png


That would be more accurate, so five games become to be one.
But I will check more leagues and add qualifiers for Saturday if I find any.
 
I have to raise an issue with the Betfair clock as it is inaccurate and drifts.
When we compare it with the Flashscore clock that seems more spot on.
I don't remember exactly, but is around 1, 2 to 3 minutes wrong.

So today I will use the Flashscore clock as the timings of the match start more early than Betfair.
The reason is that I will change one rule of the 10% and stay in the market until the 10 min mark.
So if the gain is 13% or above, then that will be the cash-out amount.

Another thing that I have to correct is the drip-laying.
So for every 10 ticks downwards, I back 25% of the stake.
That is 2.5 cents for each segment (10 ticks)
2.5 - 5.0 - 7.5 - 10
I keep this option as any small savings is better than no savings.

Cheers
 
Sunday's games

2023-01-22

Spain La Liga
Villarreal vs. Girona
Time 14:00

Spain La Liga
Barcelona vs. Getafe
Time 18:30

Belgien First Div A
Club Brugge vs. Sporting Charleroi
Time 18:30
 
Sputnik2012 said:
When we compare it with the Flashscore clock that seems more spot on.
Click to expand...

I use the Flashscore app on my phone alongside my laptop when betting football in-play. It's the best and fastest way available to me atm.
If you have the match open on the phone, the score will change before any kind of notification from anywhere else.

Good luck with this S Sputnik2012 There's a 101 different methods we can employ with in-play football. The problem is always following them though and sticking to the game plan.
.
 
This game today has been delayed, no further information.

England League One
Peterborough United vs Charlton Athletic
Time 16:00
 
The Belgian match was a win.
Won two out of two.

The Betfair clock differs by around 2 min at the beginning if you compare it with Flashscore.
After 7 to 8 min in the match, the Betfair Clock drift around 1,5 min after Flashscore.
And Flashscore is 1 min behind the computer and mobile time.

So when I cash out the Betfair time says 13 min and Flashscore 14 min.
No need to clock the time as the goal is to make 10% no matter what.

All the drip-lay bets were taken just before Cash Out.
So there is a different match tempo that has an effect on the price dropping downwards.
Also, score on target or action in the penalty area.
The first match only took 6 min (Betfair time).

Now the selection says 10% or less scoring between 0 to 15 min mark.
I keep that.

Now to the other selection where i look at the 0 to 10 min mark allowing one or none for the previous Home and Away.
This was based upon that i reckon the drift downwards would be done within 10 min mark.
But that is not the case.
So I might stretch the criteria to 0 to 15 as well as the first criteria above.

If we add and change the second rule then this match is voided and not qualifying.
I decide I will play tight and follow that criterion, the other two matches is on to tomorrow.

Spain La Liga VOID
Barcelona vs. Getafe
Time 18:30
Cheers
 
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Update and summary

I will from this moment only update the P/L for each month.
And I will change the drip lay to 15 ticks with 1,5£

Todays matches 2023-01-23

England Premier League
Fullham FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC
Time 21:00

Netherlands Eerste Divisie
AFC Ajax 11 vs. SV Roda JC
Time 20:00
 
One Unit = 10£
- - - - - - - - - -
Jan 2023 +0,68

Note; if the small profits continue, it is just a matter of scaling up.
So I will test this method for a couple of months and stake 100£ if the results are positive.

Cheers
 
Update & Changes

I have been taking two losses out of seventeen matches and one break even where the odds did not drop.
This might sound good but is not.

The stats/data show that fifteen matches out of seventeen matches have no goals during the first twenty minutes mark.
So I reckon, instead of going for 10% go for a whole tick and drip-laying to reduce losses when they occur.
Or option two stays until the twenty-minute mark.

The selection gives around eight to twelve matches each month, wish is too small and slow action for my taste.
So I thinking of going in-play stats, and live action for decision-making.
Also known as match reading without live pictures using Sofascore where you can see the match development at present time.

Here we give the different happenings during the match points to give a likelihood of a goal or not.
I have seen matches pass twenty minutes with only corners and shot of target wish indicating a slow and poor start and where the likelihood for a goal is small.
So when there is a shot on target or two shots in the penalty area I would consider Cashing Out.
This way I can pick all matches with odds 2.02 to 2.98 for Under 2,5 goals and use live stats using Sofascore rather than pre-game stats using Soocerway.
Reckon live stats and match reading much better.

We could also sing a half or whole point for different occurrences in the match using live stats to map or give a picture of the likelihood of a goal or not.
For example:

Corner - Half Point
Shot of target - Half Point
Shot in the penalty area - Half Point
Shot on target - One Point

Update after some more trading using live stats for match reading instead of pre-game stats.

Cheers
 
A better strategy is over 2.5 goals.
Just watch a little of the game.
If the ball rolls and the players are not sending each other to hospital every 20 seconds then you are good.
If not then try another match.
Depends on the price for over 2.5 too.
 
Sputnik2012 said:
Update & Changes

I have been taking two losses out of seventeen matches and one break even where the odds did not drop.
This might sound good but is not.

The stats/data show that fifteen matches out of seventeen matches have no goals during the first twenty minutes mark.
So I reckon, instead of going for 10% go for a whole tick and drip-laying to reduce losses when they occur.
Or option two stays until the twenty-minute mark.

The selection gives around eight to twelve matches each month, wish is too small and slow action for my taste.
So I thinking of going in-play stats, and live action for decision-making.
Also known as match reading without live pictures using Sofascore where you can see the match development at present time.

Here we give the different happenings during the match points to give a likelihood of a goal or not.
I have seen matches pass twenty minutes with only corners and shot of target wish indicating a slow and poor start and where the likelihood for a goal is small.
So when there is a shot on target or two shots in the penalty area I would consider Cashing Out.
This way I can pick all matches with odds 2.02 to 2.98 for Under 2,5 goals and use live stats using Sofascore rather than pre-game stats using Soocerway.
Reckon live stats and match reading much better.

We could also sing a half or whole point for different occurrences in the match using live stats to map or give a picture of the likelihood of a goal or not.
For example:

Corner - Half Point
Shot of target - Half Point
Shot in the penalty area - Half Point
Shot on target - One Point

Update after some more trading using live stats for match reading instead of pre-game stats.

Cheers
Click to expand...

S Sputnik2012 I like the way you're going this one.

With Xg being vaunted as the Holy Grail of stats (I'm not wholly convinced) not all leagues have them so I while back I thought (it seems I'm not alone in this) that using a combination of the in play stats metrics, there must be a way to create my own Xg by assigning points and comparing with the live Xg. I did this during the World Cup and it worked well.

Here's a recent game in the Premier showing HT and FT.

XgScore.png

HT scored was 0-0. My Xg showed a projected score of 1-1. This would indicate strong likelihood of goals in the second half. Goal scored in the 66th minute. The final score of 1-1 suggests Brentford were lucky to get a point, but that's football some of the time.

The trade could have been set up at backing Over 1.5g at HT and trade out after the first goal. It would of been tempting to stay in the trade for a full win as the stats suggest a likelihood of more goals to come.
 
Back on track with improvements
Hello all - now I will explain in detail how I will try to accomplish a high and steady strike ratio and reduce occasional losses when they occur.
First, I look at the Under 2,5 goal market that has odds between 2,02 - 2,98 as I want the market to expect goals so the price drift in-play.
Second, I look at pre-game stats for goal timings at the 0-15 min mark with 5% or less, or else I skip.

Third, I look at the in-play stats without live pictures using Sofascore where I can explain some different situations in how I do my decision-making for continuing with a trade to the 15-minute mark or trading out before the 15-minute mark.
If I trade a game where there is a 5/8-minute in-play and there are one or two shots off target I continue the trade or one shot of target and one blocked shot where I glance at total shots and what kind of shots that have been made where one to two and max three - no shots on target - i will continue - but it the total shots change to four/five with or with outshot on target I considering the attacking momentum has an increment where the game-changing from cold to hot and trade out.
Also if I get one shot on target and one off target I will continue, but two shots on target will make me trade out immediately.

Fourth I look for matches with 10K match in the O/U 2,5 market.

I have been experimenting and trying to find the optimal trading tactics, first, I try to lay off every two-minute interval to reduce losses if a goal strikes, but the Betfair clock is drifting one to two minutes behind Sofascore/Flashscore clock which is more accurate and spot on.
So I discovered that laying off with four ticks intervals five times would match the 15-minute mark.

I back the Under SP three minutes before kick-off and then make my lay orders and then let the trade run in play where I can concentrate on the in-play stats.
That sums it all up.

In a perfect world, all matches would end up with a 10% profit, but after a reality check, it depends on the market belief that there will be or not be goals and make the price movements drift in different directions as time passes in play, so with yesterdays games where I try out my tactics, I made around 6 and 8% of my 10£ stake where I believe occasionally making 10% where the markets are on my side.

Losses I have to make an estimation around 30/40/60% or less depending on how much I lay off in play or depending on a direct early goal, middle goal, or late goal where the losses will be larger, medium, or small because of layoff in play.
So in a perfect world of estimated risk and reward, we talk about 3,4,5 winning trades for a break-even position.
My estimation and belief is to encounter a 90% or higher strike ratio which will diminish the risk and reward ratio.

Todays matches

13:30
England Premier League
Fulham vs Manchester Utd
pre-game 1,5%
in-play
Over 10K match

15:00
Italy Serie A
Salernitana vs Napoli
pre-game 3%
in-play
8K match on observation

16:00
England Premier League
Brentford vs West Ham Utd
pre-game 2,5%
in-play
Over 10K match

Cheers
 
Here are some more games today - try to find games with as low goal timings as possible - one exception today is 4,5%

15:30
Germany Bundesliga
FC Köln vs FC Augsburg
pre-game 4,5%
in-play

18:30
Spain LaLiga
Celta Vigo vs Sevilla
pre-game 3%
in-play

18:45
Netherlands Eredivisie
Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar
pre-game 3%
in-play

20:45
Belgium First Division A
Antverp vs Genk
pre-game 3%
in-play
 
Hi Sputnik, 9 month forward I dont know if your still here, but I used to spend hours looking to try to crack the U 2.5 and all the other's on the football trading., and like you I used to try to copy Ben and many of the other's top players on youtube in my first few years of trading, but it did not take long to learn all these top strats can work, but the big question is did they make profit long term? and its impossible to get an answer as its up to the individual to put the most important factor in and thats the teams and how you play it.
I ended up testing loads of footie strats but found the best way forward was to tweak the old systems to your own style of playing that way you have your own genuine strat and in the way you find the games you believe are a match up, personally I never tested any long enough to see if they really did work,
I have a video on U2.5 scalping/Trading the unders, worth a look, if anyone is interested, copy/paste including the number in youtube and it should come up my name is Green up,

and a slightly different way to play find and play a fh correct score,

(30) Live Football Trading, Scalping/Trading the Unders

(25) Live Football Trading New Strategy Winner
 
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