A way of rating a race

Olwenba · Feb 16, 2024

A new thread, hopefully with a new idea worth abit of merit but lets see.

The idea is two use both the RPR and OR a combination of ways to find the best horses in any given race using those two constants for the class of the horse, race, opposition and the performance rating.

I also use horseracebase for my race selection, I do prefer the handicaps and prefer more runners (8+) the idea being the more runners the likely the race will be truly run and the form being solid. I have the system saved and it produces me a shortlist of races to look at. Now the way I'm rating does involve a bit of manual input from the RPR the rest of the data I can gather direct from horseracebase. I did rate a race earlier, which now has a non runner so only 7 runners but we will proceed anyway, the race is the 2.55 Kelso class 121 how I am rating it. I use the last 6 races of form as per the showing on the racing post,

LTO	Best	Horse	OR
0	136	Jungle Jack	132
112	132	Carnfunnock (IRE)	126
123	123	Ginger Mail (FR)	124
110.5	111	Ip Up (FR)	121
107.5	108	Bois Guillbert (FR)	119
114	114	Slugger	118
123	123	Cracking Rhapsody (IRE)	115

As you can see, we have LTO rating and their best from the last 6, followed by the horse and its official rating. What is noticable straight away is as this is a class 121 the best figures of Ip Up, Bois Guillbert and Slugger are way short of todays class. These would be eliminated from contention. This now gives us a shortlist to delve further to see if a winner can be found. Bother Ginger Mail and Cracking Rhapsody put up figures just above class LTO, not by much and were 1 and 2 in the same race, both arriving in form. Both Jungle Jack and Carnfunnock were below form LTO but both recorded their best figures 2 starts back. In a brief summary their two best were over 2m 4f and 2m 3f and todays 2m trip could be on the sharp side? GM and CR both ran over the same CD on soft ground last time so could be the two to focus on here. CR with only 1 handicap run still could have improvement and only has to make up 3L on GM and I would be keen on him to reverse the form.

Anyway not too much detail on the analysis at the minute but a view on how I see the race. It's the ratings I'm looking to hopefully gain abit of confidence in but I guess it's all trial and error and can only be used as a guide.

Ready to see one of the first ones eliminated romp in now..... would be just my luck!

Olwenba · Feb 16, 2024

So another race for example the 4.10 wolves class 62.5 and the ratings below;

		Rating
Horse	OR	1	2	3	4	5	6	Best
Blazing Hot	65	58	55.5	62	64	60	61	64
Back Tomorrow	65	70	64.5	60		70
Sixties Chic	64	73	71	72	71.5	65.5	71.5	73
Glamorous Express (IRE)	63	70	72.5	73	56.5	79	78	79
Late Arrival (IRE)	63	42	70.5	52	83.5	79.5	66	83.5
South Dakota Sioux (IRE)	62	36	71	72	63.5	55	33	72
All In The Hips (IRE)	61	63	65	66	58	64.5	44	66
Ballysax Lil Mick (IRE)	60			10	27.5	27.5
Porfin (IRE)	57	63	58	60	73	48	72	73
Empress Of Bough (IRE)	50	52.5	50	56	54	64	51	64

Ballyaax lil Mick is out of it straight away. The majority have ran a race better than class before but doing alittle further study I have eliminated also empress of bough, porfin, South dakota sioux and Blazing Hot, late arrival and all the hips. Back Tomorrow looks to be improving and has a nice draw and would be my selection.

Olwenba · Feb 17, 2024

I need to find a quicker way of getting the RPR onto a spreadsheet so have only managed to rate the LTO races for the 4 races I have on my shortlist. Here are the 4 and my thoughts...

time	track	horse_name	todayor	Rating1	130
2.25.	Ascot	Le Milos	146	122
2.25.	Ascot	Rare Edition (IRE)	139	127
2.25.	Ascot	Jay Jay Reilly (IRE)	139	132
2.25.	Ascot	Hyland (FR)	135	131
2.25.	Ascot	Santos Blue	133	122
2.25.	Ascot	Soaring Glory (IRE)	132	122
2.25.	Ascot	Rambo T (IRE)	132	129
2.25.	Ascot	Teddy Blue (GER)	131	128
2.25.	Ascot	Monviel (IRE)	128	101
2.25.	Ascot	Issam (FR)	126	122
2.25.	Ascot	Ostend (IRE)	126	102
2.25.	Ascot	Irish Hill (GER)	125	125
2.25.	Ascot	Mothill (IRE)	123	126
2.25.	Ascot	Bad (FR)	122	111
2.25.	Ascot	In The Air (FR)	121	0
2.25.	Ascot	Arqoob (IRE)	120	124

time	track	horse_name	todayor	Rating1	137
3.15.	Haydock	Iwilldoit	149	123
3.15.	Haydock	Chambard (FR)	147	0
3.15.	Haydock	Highland Hunter (IRE)	145	0
3.15.	Haydock	Iron Bridge (IRE)	140	122
3.15.	Haydock	Famous Bridge (IRE)	139	0
3.15.	Haydock	Yeah Man (IRE)	133	139
3.15.	Haydock	Full Back (FR)	133	0
3.15.	Haydock	Credo (IRE)	132	134
3.15.	Haydock	My Silver Lining (IRE)	127	142
3.15.	Haydock	Snipe (IRE)	124	129

time	track	horse_name	todayor	Rating1	124
3.50.	Haydock	Cuthbert Dibble (IRE)	133	125
3.50.	Haydock	Punta Del Este (FR)	131	125
3.50.	Haydock	Ilovethenightlife	130	115
3.50.	Haydock	Jai Froid (IRE)	129	132
3.50.	Haydock	Castle Rushen (IRE)	127	117
3.50.	Haydock	Lord Snootie (IRE)	122	0
3.50.	Haydock	Yes Day (IRE)	121	0
3.50.	Haydock	Our Sam	119	117
3.50.	Haydock	Schalke	118	58
3.50.	Haydock	Foillan (IRE)	110	108

time	track	horse_name	todayor	Rating1	105
4.17.	Wincanton	Eceparti (FR)	110	103
4.17.	Wincanton	Motion In Limine (IRE)	110	0
4.17.	Wincanton	Uptown Lady (IRE)	109	0
4.17.	Wincanton	Edeiffs Elton	108	6
4.17.	Wincanton	Leissieres Express	105	0
4.17.	Wincanton	Samuel Jackson	105	95
4.17.	Wincanton	No Hubs No Hoobs (IRE)	103	95
4.17.	Wincanton	Captain Claude (IRE)	100	100
4.17.	Wincanton	Born At Midnight	91	109

Ascot 2.25; class 130 by my calculations. Nothing really shining on their lto performance only Jay Jay Reilly and Hyland making a performance better than class but not by much. No obvious stand out and one to swerve me thinks.

3.15 haydock; class 137 a few of these failed to finish LTO but those who did My silver Lining and yeah man putting up figures better than class and I think are the two to focus on. My Silver Lining is up 5lb but gets similar conditions here to lto and would be my selection.

3.50 haydock; Not too many to note here, Cuthbert Dibble looks progressive, steps up to 3m on heavy ground though? I'll stick with Jai Ford for this one.

4.17 Wincanton; born to midnight at the bottom of the handicap could do well first run in 11months lto and did well on my figures. My selection.

Selections
My silver Lining
Jai Ford
Born to Midnight

Michael231 · Feb 17, 2024

Hi Olwemba.
Have only just seen this thread.
Good luck with today's picks

Olwenba · Feb 17, 2024

2.25 - Right to swerve the race at ascot.

3.15 I've had the 1st and 2nd on the shortlist and chose the wrong one.

3.50 I've had the winner mentioned but was not sure the trip/ground combo. The selection ran okay in 4th.

4.17 - Born to midnight did okay for about 2 1/2 miles but not good enough in the end.

Work in progress with these, had I managed to included the 6 last time runs rather than one maybe a different picture would have emerged. I know how the ratings are formed its finding a way to interpret them the best way. The time consuming part really is the RPR for the runners and getting them onto a spreadsheet for the rest of the ratings to be formed. That's the manual part keying those in. There's bit of promise shown with a couple of the results so far but very early days of course.

Olwenba · Feb 17, 2024

Moving on to this evening I've managed to rate 4 races and below are the ratings

time	track	horse_name	todayor	Rating1	50
6.15.	Wolverhampton	Beau Geste (IRE)	46	42
6.15.	Wolverhampton	Calcutta Dream (IRE)	51	54
6.15.	Wolverhampton	Descendant	46	26
6.15.	Wolverhampton	Havana Goldrush	52	55
6.15.	Wolverhampton	Hazel Bear	55	55
6.15.	Wolverhampton	Kemerton (IRE)	49	56
6.15.	Wolverhampton	Lough Leane (IRE)	58	63
6.15.	Wolverhampton	Star Of St Louis (FR)	51	57
6.15.	Wolverhampton	Van Zant	46	53

time	track	horse_name	todayor	Rating1	67
6.30.	Newcastle	Ballyare	70	75
6.30.	Newcastle	Hes An Angel	69	64
6.30.	Newcastle	Hurt You Never (IRE)	66	73
6.30.	Newcastle	Naaser (IRE)	66	63
6.30.	Newcastle	Pub Talk (IRE)	65	55
6.30.	Newcastle	Ramon Di Loria (IRE)	65	67
6.30.	Newcastle	Rory	64	76
6.30.	Newcastle	Westmorian	69	74

time	track	horse_name	todayor	Rating1	59
7.00.	Newcastle	Anif (IRE)	62	51
7.00.	Newcastle	Comedian Leader	62	56
7.00.	Newcastle	Concert Boy (IRE)	62	65
7.00.	Newcastle	Danielsflyer (IRE)	61	25
7.00.	Newcastle	Headabovetherest (IRE)	60	0
7.00.	Newcastle	Jems Bond	57	58
7.00.	Newcastle	One Last Hug	52	60
7.00.	Newcastle	Rich Waters (IRE)	59	64
7.00.	Newcastle	Saisons Dor (IRE)	58	56

time	track	horse_name	todayor	Rating1	59
7.30.	Newcastle	Angel Amadea	59	61
7.30.	Newcastle	Eleven Eleven (FR)	61	64
7.30.	Newcastle	Global Humor (USA)	52	54
7.30.	Newcastle	Ring Fenced	58	25
7.30.	Newcastle	Shes Got Bottle	62	67
7.30.	Newcastle	Smalleytime (IRE)	60	40
7.30.	Newcastle	To The Bar (IRE)	60	64
7.30.	Newcastle	Turbo Command (IRE)	62	67

Just a few quick thoughts on the

6.15 lough leane looks the pick, a winner last time out follow up again here.

6.30 Rory is consistent and looks good on the figures.

7.00 concert boy and rich waters I find hard to split.

7.30 she's got the bottle and turbo command

Olwenba · Feb 18, 2024

So I've decided to drop using the RPR as it's taking far too much time manual inputting those numbers onto the spreadsheets. So instead the OR is being used for all figures that I arrive at, class of race, class of the horse etc now what this has allowed me to do after abit of tinkering is use the ratings machine in HRB to create the raw figures I want. I can rate upto 10 races per runner per race using this now but I won't be using that many, instead I'll be taking the last 3. These raw figures can be exported onto a spreadsheet where there is a little excel work to be done to get the adjusted figures I want but the whole days handicaps can be done quite quickly. I'll use the 2.35 at punchestown as an example now. The ratings show the top OR in the race as 144 This is the class of the race, ideally now what I'm looking for is a LTO figures of the runners to be greater than 144. This meaning a horse only has to repeat their effort from last time to stand a good chance in the race today. If no figure LTO is greater the look to the 2lr and 3lr. Any figures that is extremely low and minus is showing the horse didn't finish the race.

time	track	horse	topor	OfficialRating	LR	2LR	3LR	Best
2.35.	Punchestown	Any Second Now (IRE)	144	144	114	118	23	118
2.35.	Punchestown	Dunboyne (IRE)	144	138	0	144	5	144
2.35.	Punchestown	Frontal Assault (IRE)	144	138	111	137	139	139
2.35.	Punchestown	My Immortal (IRE)	144	134	-134	-134	-134	-134
2.35.	Punchestown	Queen Jane (IRE)	144	134	0	135	-6	135
2.35.	Punchestown	Stormy Judge (IRE)	144	132	145	86	-20	145
2.35.	Punchestown	Street Value (IRE)	144	132	0	127	138	138
2.35.	Punchestown	Must Be Obeyed (IRE)	144	131	131	1	127	131
2.35.	Punchestown	Champagne Platinum (IRE)	144	130	108	121	2	121
2.35.	Punchestown	Fakiera (FR)	144	125	3	126	6	126
2.35.	Punchestown	Clonmeen (IRE)	144	123	113	102	94	113
2.35.	Punchestown	Where It All Began (IRE)	144	123	-1	111	92	111
2.35.	Punchestown	Regina Dracones (IRE)	144	121	89	77	139	139
2.35.	Punchestown	Wellhavewan (IRE)	144	118	148	143	133	148
2.35.	Punchestown	Baldurs Gate (IRE)	144	118	97	122	91	122

From the figures the best LTO races are from stormy judge and wellhavewan both better than class. These two now require abit more attention. Dunboyne is the only other runner to match or better the class from the reaming runners.

What the figures do is narrow the focus down the ones with the ability to compete in today's race. I have the criteria in place to give me the races to look at each day, the figures give me the horses in those races to look at further. We'll see shortly how the race pans out but hopefully gives an idea of what I'm looking at/for in a race.

Olwenba · Feb 18, 2024

The remaining races on the shortlist of races are below.. I have ** the horses which make the shortlist

time	track	horse	topor	OfficialRating	LR	2LR	3LR	Best
2.45.	Musselburgh	Call Me Harry (IRE)**	112	112	106	-3	113	113
2.45.	Musselburgh	Balkardy (FR)**	112	110	103	115	120	120
2.45.	Musselburgh	Cardamon Hill (IRE)	112	108	89	4	90	90
2.45.	Musselburgh	Masked Crusader (FR)	112	108	105	7	11	105
2.45.	Musselburgh	Jem In Em (IRE)	112	107	106	106	102	106
2.45.	Musselburgh	Sean Og (IRE)	112	104	98	2	87	98
2.45.	Musselburgh	Valleyview Tommy (IRE)	112	103	-103	-103	-103	-103
2.45.	Musselburgh	So Many Roads	112	99	93	93	99	99
time	track	horse	topor	OfficialRating	LR	2LR	3LR	Best
4.20.	Musselburgh	Limerick Leader (FR)	92	92	86	88	82	88
4.20.	Musselburgh	Coolkill (IRE)**	92	89	84	97	64	97
4.20.	Musselburgh	Ex Selance (FR)**	92	84	106	93	95	106
4.20.	Musselburgh	Claret Dabbler**	92	81	4	76	109	109
4.20.	Musselburgh	Budarri**	92	77	110	98	75	110
4.20.	Musselburgh	Divas Doyen (IRE)**	92	76	97	-5	72	97
4.20.	Musselburgh	Izzys Champion** (IRE)	92	75	8	95	96	96
4.20.	Musselburgh	Halfway House Lad	92	71	89	87	92	92
4.20.	Musselburgh	Blazing Hartingo (IRE)	92	66	82	91	70	91
time	track	horse	topor	OfficialRating	LR	2LR	3LR	Best
4.50.	Musselburgh	Cancan (FR)**	100	100	109	115	93	115
4.50.	Musselburgh	Bashful**	100	98	107	63	50	107
4.50.	Musselburgh	All Ways And Ever (IRE)	100	97	2	6	-97	6
4.50.	Musselburgh	Copper Fox	100	87	97	87	94	97
4.50.	Musselburgh	Cliffs Of Dooneen (IRE)	100	84	45	71	94	94
4.50.	Musselburgh	Dont Look Back	100	83	89	25	31	89
4.50.	Musselburgh	We Still Believe (IRE)	100	81	95	83	88	95
4.50.	Musselburgh	Spanish Hustle	100	80	46	50	59	59
4.50.	Musselburgh	Lifetime Adventure (IRE)	100	79	76	85	5	85
4.50.	Musselburgh	La Quarite (FR)	100	88	-88	-88	-88	-88
time	track	horse	topor	OfficialRating	LR	2LR	3LR	Best
5.30.	Kempton	Beautiful Surprise**	60	60	53	61	54	61
5.30.	Kempton	Art Collection (FR)	60	60	51	21	24	51
5.30.	Kempton	Araifjan**	60	59	65	51	17	65
5.30.	Kempton	Revision	60	58	51	51	58	58
5.30.	Kempton	Seas Of Elzaam (IRE)	60	58	50	49	31	50
5.30.	Kempton	Dulcet Spirit**	60	57	57	62	46	62
5.30.	Kempton	Smasher (IRE)	60	57	51	47	-4	51
5.30.	Kempton	Divine Messenger	60	56	51	44	57	57
5.30.	Kempton	Miss Moonshine	60	55	58	50	54	58
5.30.	Kempton	White Mist	60	53	52	49	57	57
5.30.	Kempton	Scramble	60	50	54	44	-2	54
5.30.	Kempton	Star Adorned (IRE)	60	46	-3	0	32	32
time	track	horse	topor	OfficialRating	LR	2LR	3LR	Best
6.00.	Kempton	One Hart (IRE)**	60	60	59	63	60	63
6.00.	Kempton	Holbache	60	59	29	58	44	58
6.00.	Kempton	Due Date	60	58	46	46	42	46
6.00.	Kempton	Man On A Mission**	60	58	59	55	63	63
6.00.	Kempton	Diamondsinthesand (IRE)**	60	57	54	61	59	61
6.00.	Kempton	Porfin (IRE)	60	57	54	56	50	56
6.00.	Kempton	Diamond Dreamer	60	56	54	58	43	58
6.00.	Kempton	Princess Naomi**	60	55	48	62	54	62
6.00.	Kempton	Phoenix Star (IRE)**	60	55	63	53	23	63
6.00.	Kempton	Sisters In The Sky	60	52	45	50	48	50
6.00.	Kempton	Beauen Arrows**	60	50	37	23	65	65

Obviously the ratings a purely a guide and other aspects must be looked at before checking if one is worthy of being a selection. Maybe the use of a speed rating to match a good class/form figure I have is an indication the form is worth some merit? Anyway not to get too far ahead the figures can now be done alot quicker are they any good? Who knows? But it's a start.

Paul Brown · Feb 18, 2024

I'm going to pop something on but I'm not sure how it will come out. It's something that is part of Inform racing

Paul Brown · Feb 18, 2024

Official Ratings

Horse	To Last	Today	Last	Highest	Lto1	Lto2	Lto3	Lto4	Lto5	Lto6	Lto7	Lto8	Lto9	Lto10

Captain Quint

-2

+117

+119

117/2

121/8

122/2

122/U

122/5

119/1

118/2

119/3

120/3

120/U

Grey Skies

+2

+119

+117

119/2

120/4

121/4

123/5

123/6

122/2

117/1

122/4

127/5

Hold Onto The Line

+1

+107

+106

106/1

108/7

110/P

110/4

103/1

95/1

91/1

0/5

0/7

0/3

Honey I'm Good

+4

+105

+101

107/P

99/7

101/P

101/3

101/2

107/4

101/1

94/1

0/3

0/1

Massini Man

+5

+108

+103

110/3

110/F

111/3

103/1

99/2

96/1

97/4

98/2

99/2

No Regrets

+4

+112

+108

110/2

111/3

108/1

104/2

100/1

100/2

105/9

110/7

115/4

117/6

Return Fire

+2

+105

+103

106/5

106/3

103/1

105/6

106/3

107/2

109/4

110/4

102/1

So They Say

+7

+103

+96

96/1

95/4

95/2

95/F

0/3

0/4

Paul Brown · Feb 18, 2024

UK racing only

Paul Brown · Feb 18, 2024

Not sure it will help you

Olwenba · Feb 18, 2024

Thanks, I've managed to get the raw ratings I need from Horseracebase. The ratings machine on there are using the official ratings and basically a standard lbs per length figure which is used for beaten horses, this gives me a raw rating which I then tweak to give the final rating you see on the thread now in the last couple of posts. I had timing issues at first it was abit more manual than it is now but this way has speeded things up considerably.

Olwenba · Feb 18, 2024

Including the punchestown race the shortlist of horses from the ratings threw up 4 winners from 6 races the losing races having shortlist horses finish second. A couple of nice prices. Not too bad today, an area worth more of a look going forward.

HRB already have the cards and system ready for tomorrow, looks plenty of handicaps tomorrow to sort the figures out for.

Paul Brown · Feb 18, 2024

Olwenba said:
Including the punchestown race the shortlist of horses from the ratings threw up 4 winners from 6 races the losing races having shortlist horses finish second. A couple of nice prices. Not too bad today, an area worth more of a look going forward.

HRB already have the cards and system ready for tomorrow, looks plenty of handicaps tomorrow to sort the figures out for.

soundslike your doing well with this

Paul Brown · Feb 18, 2024

I managed to creat a macro to seperate the InformRacing Hcap marks from the positions.

Official Ratings
Horse	To Last	Today	Last	Highest	Lto1		Lto2		Lto3		Lto4		Lto5		Lto6		Lto7		Lto8		Lto9		Lto10
Blazing Hartingo	-	66	-	-	66	3	73	7	71	5	75	P	0	4	0	4	0	9	0		0	0	0		0	7	5	9	-66	-66	-66	-66	-66	-66
Budarri	-	77	77	77	83	2	79	3	81	5	82	7	82	2	80	2	81	5	82	4	82	2	77	1	6	2	4	5	5	3	4	5	5	0
Claret Dabbler	-	81	-	-	85	P	90	4	88	2	89	3	90	7	95	5	98	4	0	3	0	8	0	5	4	9	7	8	9	14	17	-81	-81	-81
Coolkill	-	89	-	-	90	4	88	2	93	8	97	P	102	9	107	8	114	P	115	6	116	P	0	1	1	-1	4	8	13	18	25	26	27	-89
Divas Doyen	-	76	-	-	74	2	71	P	73	2	73	5	71	2	74	5	76	5	81	8	86	P	92	P	-2	-5	-3	-3	-5	-2	0	5	10	16
Ex S'Elance	1	84	83	83	84	4	85	3	84	2	83	1	82	2	84	P	77	1	78	10	78	3	79	7	0	1	0	-1	-2	0	-7	-6	-6	-5
Halfway House Lad	-	71	-	-	72	4	107	2	83	8	71	7	87	P	77	9	0	11	0	5	0	U			1	36	12	0	16	6	-71	-71	-71	-71
Izzy's Champion	-10	75	85	-	83	P	77	3	78	3	79	3	79	2	81	3	80	4	77	2	82	5	86	5	8	2	3	4	4	6	5	2	7	11
Limerick Leader	-	92	-	-	96	8	100	7	104	7	104	2	100	2	103	7	100	2	101	5	103	3	105	3	4	8	12	12	8	11	8	9	11	13

TheBluesBrother · Feb 19, 2024

O Olwenba

I looked at using the ORs and RPRs to handicap races a while back and complied 2 tables for all 3 disciplines.

Mike.

Olwenba · Feb 19, 2024

TheBluesBrother

Thank you, it was an idea I tried to explore. Do you use these figures today? It was part of my thinking originally, using the two together as a raw figure and look at a couple of ways to give an final class/rating. I couldn't find a quick way to get the RPR data onto the spreadsheets I had and was too much manual work for me so dropped the idea of using RPR and instead just used the OR for all the data.

TheBluesBrother · Feb 19, 2024

Olwenba said:
Do you use these figures today?

yes, it is my method of working out class.

Mike.

Olwenba · Feb 19, 2024

I did the figures last night, so possibly a non runner or two will be included in them the first race on my shortlist of races 1.47Lingfield ill give my thoughts as there is one I particularly like;

time	track	horse	runners	category	topor	OfficialRating	LR	2LR	3LR	Best
1.47.	Lingfield	Mclean House (FR)**	9	All Weather	83	83	89	69	74	89
1.47.	Lingfield	Riot (IRE)**	9	All Weather	83	83	88	74	81	88
1.47.	Lingfield	Borgi (IRE)	9	All Weather	83	83	77	82	58	82
1.47.	Lingfield	Larado (FR)	9	All Weather	83	82	76	79	78	79
1.47.	Lingfield	Good Too (FR)**	9	All Weather	83	80	76	93	86	93
1.47.	Lingfield	Epsom Faithfull	9	All Weather	83	78	72	73	66	73
1.47.	Lingfield	Party Island (IRE)	9	All Weather	83	78	63	51	70	70
1.47.	Lingfield	Mint Edition**	9	All Weather	83	77	56	93	65	93
1.47.	Lingfield	Sandy Paradise (IRE)	9	All Weather	83	76	77	64	75	77

The ** horses are one on the shortlist which are

Mclean House
Riot
Good Too
Mint Edition

Good too and Mint Edition have the best rating of 93. Mint Edition his figure was achieved in a 4 runner race, where top weight was giving bags of weight away and finished 3rd form is ??? Also has been off the track 241 days and is currently around 66/1 so not for me. Good too achieved his rating 2LR, at odds of 125/1 - was that fluke performance? odds of around 33/1 today suggests it could have been so not for me.

We are left with Riot and Mclean house, the one I like here is the latter. Needed every yard of 7f LR and has only had 4 runs in handicaps so possible he hasnt reached his ceiling just yet. Would have progressive numbers but for 2lr being in stall 10 and racing keenly on the outside before fading, got back on track LR at this course which is also the best LR figure of the runners.

A way of rating a race

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