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  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
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Yesteryear Correct Score System.

..... that is quite a bit higher than the one I operate. I used to be up there but found that it was better to drop the odds and operate within a smaller margin. I have currently not been operating much at all recently as I have a troublesome bout of Sciatica which is driving me scatty at the moment. ;)
point and advice taken.... I'll drop it to 1.6 and see if that improves things... and hope the sciatica disappears quickly ! :sorry:
 
Bank.....85pts

Home​
Away​
League​
Score​
BF Odds​
Brighton​
Man Utd​
E.Pm​
1-2​
9​
Millwall​
Swansea​
E.Ch​
0-1​
8​
Cardiff​
Charlton​
E.Ch​
2-2​
20​
Barnsley​
Blackburn​
E.Ch​
2-3​
45​
Reading​
Brentford​
E.Ch​
2-2​
21​
QPR​
Fulham​
E.Ch​
1-3​
21​
Wigan​
Stoke​
E.Ch​
2-1​
11.5​
Leeds​
Luton​
E.Ch​
2-1​
10​
 
Good afternoon all.
I'm not giving up on this!! 😂 Apologies to all those prediction sites that I thought were useless.....lol !!

Bank 77pts
1st July
Home​
Away​
League​
Score​
BF Odds​
Arsenal​
Norwich​
E.Pm​
2-0​
7.4​
Bournemouth​
Newcastle​
E.Pm​
1-0​
6.8​
Everton​
Leicester​
E.Pm​
2-2​
18​
West Ham​
Chelsea​
E.Pm​
2-2​
21​
Preston​
Derby​
E.Ch​
1-3​
29​
Birmingham​
Huddersfield​
E.Ch​
2-0​
13.5​
Nott Forest​
Bristol City​
E.Ch​
2-1​
8.6​
Sheff Weds​
West Brom​
E.Ch​
0-2​
9​

Tweaked the method slightly.
 
Slowly feeling this is going to come right with each tweak........who am I kidding!!..........."this time next year, Rodders....."

Bank 69 pts
2nd July
Home​
Away​
League​
Score​
BF Odds​
Sheff Utd​
Tottenham​
E.Pm​
1-1​
6.6​
Man City​
Liverpool​
E.Pm​
3-2​
24​
Hull​
Middlesbrough​
E.Ch​
0-2​
11​
 
Slowly feeling this is going to come right with each tweak........who am I kidding!!..........."this time next year, Rodders....."

Bank 69 pts
2nd July
Home​
Away​
League​
Score​
BF Odds​
Sheff Utd​
Tottenham​
E.Pm​
1-1​
6.6​
Man City​
Liverpool​
E.Pm​
3-2​
24​
Hull​
Middlesbrough​
E.Ch​
0-2​
11​

Unlucky with the west ham game last night. Seems like things are going against us at the mo. Hopefully the tide will turn and last minute goals will be for winners rather than heartbreak!
 
How do we calculate the chances of predicting the correct score ?
Looking at last nights results where both arsenal & newc scored 4 goals each and west ham won 3-2 it strikes me that any score is possible.

Therefore if we accept a max of 4 goals for any side the possibilities are........

Draw = 5 possible scores
home = 10
away = 10

total = 25 possible scores

sheff utd v spurs
utd struggling to score but showing slight improvement from being crap, also conceding goals since restart.

spurs are always capable of scoring goals and can concede at times, looked fine since restart .

prediction...............1 - 3 .......21 betfair...............18/1 bet365.
 
Yes, unlucky with that one......knew it was too good to be true.,,,,lol
I had my Flashscore's app loaded with the games and was just waiting for the Full time ping.....alas no....disappointment, lol.

On the whole, and more importantly for me, it's about achieving a balanced set of predictions that are thereabouts over time. It's about being able to predict if a game is going to be low scoring or high.
If I confidently thought there was going to be goals in, say, the West Ham v Chelsea match, I could have got good odds for Over 3.5, for example, after 30 minutes of play. The first goal didn't come until 42 minutes.

You get a better sense of how a game might pan out if you do your own assessments, and to obtain a profit, sometimes, all it takes is the balls to go with your convictions.
 
T tacker You would have to weigh the chances of a score against its probability of occurring.
Using your 5 draws possible analogy - not all draws are the same ( obviously ).
The statistics show ( and it's pretty much the same from season to season ) that 1-1 draws are the most common scoreline. In fact, it's usually the most common of all matches total ( 12% of matches ).
0-0 and 2-2 ( 6% of matches ) - 3-3 ( 1% of matches ) - 4-4 ( may or may not occur within a season ).
Look up Full-Time scores on a football stats site.
 
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If placing bets on correct scores then using Betfair can be an advantage in that any scoreline with 4 goals or more to the Home or Away side are grouped together in 3 groups ( AnyOtherHomeWin, AnyOtherAwayWin, AnyOtherDraw ).
Possible 'scorelines' up to 3-3 are a total of 16, so with the 3 above = 19 possible selections x 2 (for both teams) = 38 possibles.

As the possible outcomes are fixed, and assuming that that whole correct score market is 'near' perfect, you could build prediction models that highlight where the market is 'out of kilter' to your statistics for a given match.
As any score can 'win', just like any horse can win a race ( given its day, relative to its odds ), it would be just a matter of backing at the odds that are value - regardless of whether you thought it was likely or not.
 
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T tacker You would have to weigh the chances of a score against its probability of occurring.
Using your 5 draws possible analogy - not all draws are the same ( obviously ).
The statistics show ( and it's pretty much the same from season to season ) that 1-1 draws are the most common scoreline. In fact, it's usually the most common of all matches total ( 12% of matches ).
0-0 and 2-2 ( 6% of matches ) - 3-3 ( 1% of matches ) - 4-4 ( may or may not occur within a season ).
Look up Full-Time scores on a football stats site.
Hi retriever retriever of course 3-3 & 4-4 are pointless even thinking about but i'm surprised 1-1 is the most common scoreline, I would have guessed 2-1.
 
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