• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Yesteryear Correct Score System.

FHRTIPS FHRTIPS .... Very neat and tidy and very well presented if I may say so. I have not had much time to study this but will do so later in the day. Will see how some of your under 2.5 goals compares with the ones I churned out recently. :)
 
HI I am not sure how FHR's file comes up with the expected goals but I think the rest is based on the Poisson distribution. I think the attached will perform similar calculations but you will have to enter in your own expected goals. Expected goals.xlsx . This was made today so let me know if there are any problems with it.
 
As this is a correct score thread please allow me to indulge in trying to 'read' what the %'s are saying.
Most of the German matches look straightforward in Home wins / Away wins and I generally like to look for the Draws.
Only one stands out in the above - M'gladbach v Leverkusen.
The probabilities read that this is a pretty equal affair 38-23-38 with the odds agreeing. The high %'s for both BTTS and Overs lead to a prediction of a high score draw. And there is only one realistic prediction and that would be 2 - 2.

Just for fun, I am going to post all 10 match predictions for correct scores with the current Betfair odds. Let's see if I can show a profit.
If there appears to be some 'logic' with my thoughts I may try and 'automate' with spreadsheets etc. (with all your help!! :))

German Football2.png
 
G gary longstaff .... nice little sheet you have there Gary. Once again very neat and tidy. I note you have only taken 2 of the 3 predicted matches, presumably because match two had a mixed range of predicted results :)
 
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