• Hi Guest, The software has been updated but I have not had a chance to tweak anything yet.
    It took longer than I had hoped, so I just turned it on and hope everything is OK
    If you spot anything that does not look rigfhyt then please let me know.
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest, If you are seeing that Lurker has appeared under your name then please take a look here to see why. AR

Yesteryear Correct Score System.


FHRTIPS FHRTIPS .... Very neat and tidy and very well presented if I may say so. I have not had much time to study this but will do so later in the day. Will see how some of your under 2.5 goals compares with the ones I churned out recently. :)
HI I am not sure how FHR's file comes up with the expected goals but I think the rest is based on the Poisson distribution. I think the attached will perform similar calculations but you will have to enter in your own expected goals. Expected goals.xlsx . This was made today so let me know if there are any problems with it.
As this is a correct score thread please allow me to indulge in trying to 'read' what the %'s are saying.
Most of the German matches look straightforward in Home wins / Away wins and I generally like to look for the Draws.
Only one stands out in the above - M'gladbach v Leverkusen.
The probabilities read that this is a pretty equal affair 38-23-38 with the odds agreeing. The high %'s for both BTTS and Overs lead to a prediction of a high score draw. And there is only one realistic prediction and that would be 2 - 2.

Just for fun, I am going to post all 10 match predictions for correct scores with the current Betfair odds. Let's see if I can show a profit.
If there appears to be some 'logic' with my thoughts I may try and 'automate' with spreadsheets etc. (with all your help!! :))

German Football2.png


G gary longstaff .... nice little sheet you have there Gary. Once again very neat and tidy. I note you have only taken 2 of the 3 predicted matches, presumably because match two had a mixed range of predicted results :)