• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting

    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.

Yesteryear Correct Score System.


FHRTIPS FHRTIPS .... Very neat and tidy and very well presented if I may say so. I have not had much time to study this but will do so later in the day. Will see how some of your under 2.5 goals compares with the ones I churned out recently. :)
HI I am not sure how FHR's file comes up with the expected goals but I think the rest is based on the Poisson distribution. I think the attached will perform similar calculations but you will have to enter in your own expected goals. Expected goals.xlsx . This was made today so let me know if there are any problems with it.


As this is a correct score thread please allow me to indulge in trying to 'read' what the %'s are saying.
Most of the German matches look straightforward in Home wins / Away wins and I generally like to look for the Draws.
Only one stands out in the above - M'gladbach v Leverkusen.
The probabilities read that this is a pretty equal affair 38-23-38 with the odds agreeing. The high %'s for both BTTS and Overs lead to a prediction of a high score draw. And there is only one realistic prediction and that would be 2 - 2.

Just for fun, I am going to post all 10 match predictions for correct scores with the current Betfair odds. Let's see if I can show a profit.
If there appears to be some 'logic' with my thoughts I may try and 'automate' with spreadsheets etc. (with all your help!! :))

German Football2.png


G gary longstaff .... nice little sheet you have there Gary. Once again very neat and tidy. I note you have only taken 2 of the 3 predicted matches, presumably because match two had a mixed range of predicted results :)