WINTER DERBY 3.15

[Chesham]

Yeah can't disagree with much of that although it might be there's a couple of typo's........genetic & mother, I took them to be generic & another but every chance i'm mistaken.

Mother is a typo but genetic is not. The Fuel that powers Racehorses comes from the mitochondrial DNA

 

[markfinn]

Winter Derby and Pace or Tactics

Can speed be relied upon ?
Pace Draw I/V Tr Form Horse run Pattern

 

[tacker]

markfinn
I['m unsure what we are looking at here but in my first post i was trying to point out that while the overall times gave support to BANGKOK perhaps being superior time wise but the sectionals told a different story depending how the race might unfold, most including me expected COURT HOUSE to make the running, something this horse had done before but it didn't happen and Dettori was allowed to dictate from the front and use his speed to to complete the job. Bangkok is a hold up horse that needs a strong pace to chase but i'm afraid gosden is a clever sod and had worked it all out beforehand.

In my humble opinion the numbers are of great interest but trying to second guess the tactics employed are just as important, O Outlander made some compelling points.

 

[markfinn]

markfinn
I['m unsure what we are looking at here but in my first post i was trying to point out that while the overall times gave support to BANGKOK perhaps being superior time wise but the sectionals told a different story depending how the race might unfold, most including me expected COURT HOUSE to make the running, something this horse had done before but it didn't happen and Dettori was allowed to dictate from the front and use his speed to to complete the job. Bangkok is a hold up horse that needs a strong pace to chase but i'm afraid gosden is a clever sod and had worked it all out beforehand.

In my humble opinion the numbers are of great interest but trying to second guess the tactics employed are just as important, O Outlander made some compelling points.

No point to make , just exploring ideas, so many stats become part of another line of form reading and if using such can never be quite sure if one is being unknowingly inflated enough to distort the rating.

 

[tacker]

Did you see Bangkok when Frankie dropped the pace and he started to run up the back of him , he hated it and was pulling and that was it then, he was never going to have a kick left to challenge.
Dettori went out even pace I think because Dubai has pulled in the past got him racing nicely then pulled the handbrake and slowed it right down then quickened it was very well planned and executed.
It just shows how important pace is in a race it causes all sorts of chain reactions and affects results probably as much as anything, knowing this though doesn’t always help picking winners though, pace in itself is not totally predictable.

AustinDillon75 This post sums up how the race went and earlier in the thread O Outlander predicted just what dettori might do , so very much got it right. In my opinion this race was a good example how tactics and pace dictate the likely result, BANGKOK benefitted from the strong pace that COURT HOUSE set on the 8th feb but that horse was held up in the derby which is well worth another look .