VDW instructed the we should break the habit of trying to find the "winner of the race" and instead find a horse with all the attributes of a winner and then establish the capability under the races conditions.
This comment has me considering what are the attributes of a winner? After some deliberation;
1) Form. The horse must be in form. Several more knowledgeable students than me have found difficulty in a simple explanation of this essential component of racing. VDW IIRC, gave examples of a dart player, a schools star athlete and a football team. One comment that has always stuck with me on this point is " One performance is better than another". I use this throwaway comment in a couple of ways to try to determine the attributes of a "winner in a race". Sticking to the horse itself, is the latest performance better than the penultimate? Varying methods of evaluating improvement are possible, Speed Figures, form ratings, proximity to the race winner, race class. Of course this is exposed form. The horse must be showing improvement.
2) Consistency. I have to be confident that the horse is consistent enough to show its running once again.
What are others views on the required attributes?
If I have found a horse that is bang in form and it can reasonably expected to reproduce that performance then I think I have found a winner in a race, and can then evaluate the likelihood of it doing so in its race today.
This comment has me considering what are the attributes of a winner? After some deliberation;
1) Form. The horse must be in form. Several more knowledgeable students than me have found difficulty in a simple explanation of this essential component of racing. VDW IIRC, gave examples of a dart player, a schools star athlete and a football team. One comment that has always stuck with me on this point is " One performance is better than another". I use this throwaway comment in a couple of ways to try to determine the attributes of a "winner in a race". Sticking to the horse itself, is the latest performance better than the penultimate? Varying methods of evaluating improvement are possible, Speed Figures, form ratings, proximity to the race winner, race class. Of course this is exposed form. The horse must be showing improvement.
2) Consistency. I have to be confident that the horse is consistent enough to show its running once again.
What are others views on the required attributes?
If I have found a horse that is bang in form and it can reasonably expected to reproduce that performance then I think I have found a winner in a race, and can then evaluate the likelihood of it doing so in its race today.