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Winner in a Race

VanMan

Yearling
VDW instructed the we should break the habit of trying to find the "winner of the race" and instead find a horse with all the attributes of a winner and then establish the capability under the races conditions.

This comment has me considering what are the attributes of a winner? After some deliberation;
1) Form. The horse must be in form. Several more knowledgeable students than me have found difficulty in a simple explanation of this essential component of racing. VDW IIRC, gave examples of a dart player, a schools star athlete and a football team. One comment that has always stuck with me on this point is " One performance is better than another". I use this throwaway comment in a couple of ways to try to determine the attributes of a "winner in a race". Sticking to the horse itself, is the latest performance better than the penultimate? Varying methods of evaluating improvement are possible, Speed Figures, form ratings, proximity to the race winner, race class. Of course this is exposed form. The horse must be showing improvement.
2) Consistency. I have to be confident that the horse is consistent enough to show its running once again.

What are others views on the required attributes?

If I have found a horse that is bang in form and it can reasonably expected to reproduce that performance then I think I have found a winner in a race, and can then evaluate the likelihood of it doing so in its race today.
 
Hi Chesham,

I dont know how these spurious and mysterious ratings are supposed to help?

Tommy's oscar was pretty straightforward, a horse being given the run around in the wrong class, he had won a class 60 the fav had only won a class 40. No secret ratings needed, Just a simple VDW cross check of the last three runs to highlight class and form.

That approach, is used by many trainers to get a horse in, not always from a "winning a race" standpoint and class is not the only screen used to blur the handicappers vision. distance, ground, course etc
I get some nice prices with those types, the lower you go the less places they have to hide.

My concern is why deviate from VDW's methods, are they not good enough?

Kind Regards
 
I was re-reading some of Patrick Kilgallon's Raceform books the other week. Interestingly he mentions something similar in that he concentrates on mainly recent winners and then looks for a "Race for the winner". I know Chesham mentioned Marvex from the 50's who used to identify the races that a horse should then be aimed at. Kilgallon was generally looking for progressive types who the handicapper was not able to punish too heavily but who looked to have more in the tank and to come later.

He generally considers form from grade 1 and uphill courses to be of greater merit and looks for the "story" behind any potential improvement in order to confirm it can be maintained. Form as VDW says can be misleading.

In this respect he differs from some of the hidden form aspects of VDW as he was dealing with proven exposed recent form.
 
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Hello Chesham Chesham,

You seem very attached to the rating's, I remember JIB, he never was a VDW man and it sounds like he has not deviated from that path much. How you can compare those selections to anything like pegwell bay is beyond me, or any comments regarding him.
Diamond bay was a mugs bet, they get beat day in day out. save all the analysis "just back No 1" if its won.
 
V VanMan Re your above posts, Plenty of VDW content on this forum and yet Chesham Chesham is the only member i have seen who via pre race posting has proved that using some of the VDW thinking can produce a high strike rate. Therefore i would suggest that anything he shares is worth thinking about by those who still have an interest in the subject.
 
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mick mick Chesham Chesham

That is the problem, that I mentioned, I would join to see if it was still evident.
You are arrogant enough to assume that I need your help. I came here to provide help. But, as previously, you know it all already.
For your information, I operate two of VDW's methods the first has a probabilty of 77.23%, the second 91.4%, of course there are slight fluctuations but that is the current situation. Providing about 10-15 selections a week, they nearly all win. I back 5. they very seldom lose.

adios amigos

I wish you all Good health to persue your dreams. VDW

Very sorry to here about BOB, god bless him. He was another who you could not tell nothing and knew it all.
 
I think maybe working on a suitable future race would be a good way to demonstrate everyone's thoughts and methods. I really don't think there is any need to fall out over it - it usually takes about 300 pages into a VDW thread before death threats are issued:) I for one would welcome any thoughts you may have about the method.
 
mick mick Chesham Chesham

That is the problem, that I mentioned, I would join to see if it was still evident.
You are arrogant enough to assume that I need your help. I came here to provide help. But, as previously, you know it all already.
For your information, I operate two of VDW's methods the first has a probabilty of 77.23%, the second 91.4%, of course there are slight fluctuations but that is the current situation. Providing about 10-15 selections a week, they nearly all win. I back 5. they very seldom lose.

adios amigos

I wish you all Good health to persue your dreams. VDW

Very sorry to here about BOB, god bless him. He was another who you could not tell nothing and knew it all.

Hi V VanMan

I did not think that you needed my help but in your first post that you opened this thread with you asked if anyone had any views and I gave my views as requested.

Good to read that you are doing well with your take on VDW and long may it last.

Yes Bob did have his strong belief and would not be swayed differently. We all miss him very much as he was a good long standing member of this Forum.

Unlike most Forums, this one has settled into being a friendly exchange of Pre Race selections, some with in depth analysis others just naming a horse and the Course and race time. We are not in competition with each other to see who is the greatest punter. We all benefit from sharing views and reading different angles that members use to find winners with.

Quite a few provide their own personal ratings and put a lot of work into providing those.

All the best with whatever you do, Keep safe and most of all Keep Well in these difficult times




3C403C1C-8718-49C5-AC85-1573499FF87A.jpeg
 
Views on the required attributes?

IMO it boils down to focussing on the better class races and those have the ability to perform in them. If I remember correctly, many examples were non-handicaps, I believe it can be achieved in better class handicaps too. I always felt that the form figures bias was a weakness, as a horse can run a better race and finish 4th, than another that had won an inferior class race.

The element that VDW never really covered, as it was subjective, was how the race was run. Ratings will only give a guide to performance.

I took a big interest in VDW in the early years and fondly remember the old sporting chronicle handicap book discussions, tony peach et-al. I think I still have some old .pdf's on a USB stick pertaining to some of the articles.
 
This must be the shortest VDW thread on record. It didn't even make the weekend.

I have never been a fan of VDW, probably thats why I lose all the time:D, but I thought maybe that V VanMan was going to show pre race selections and now the impressive strike rate has been presented, I was looking forward to it being exhibited. Such is life.
 
VDW instructed the we should break the habit of trying to find the "winner of the race" and instead find a horse with all the attributes of a winner and then establish the capability under the races conditions.

This comment has me considering what are the attributes of a winner? After some deliberation;
1) Form. The horse must be in form. Several more knowledgeable students than me have found difficulty in a simple explanation of this essential component of racing. VDW IIRC, gave examples of a dart player, a schools star athlete and a football team. One comment that has always stuck with me on this point is " One performance is better than another". I use this throwaway comment in a couple of ways to try to determine the attributes of a "winner in a race". Sticking to the horse itself, is the latest performance better than the penultimate? Varying methods of evaluating improvement are possible, Speed Figures, form ratings, proximity to the race winner, race class. Of course this is exposed form. The horse must be showing improvement.
2) Consistency. I have to be confident that the horse is consistent enough to show its running once again.

What are others views on the required attributes?

If I have found a horse that is bang in form and it can reasonably expected to reproduce that performance then I think I have found a winner in a race, and can then evaluate the likelihood of it doing so in its race today.
Van man, you sound very interesting and positive. "One performance is better than another" from reading a posts by chaps called Lee/Guest/Barney and some others, I took the meaning as horse As form was better than horse Bs in that race. Like P/King and Mr Kildare in the Erin checking the form ect. If you don't come back good luck to you.
 
My question is " will the horse cope with the job ahead?"
Has it got the relevant ability and experience to win.

My follow-up question is " do Connections want to win this particular race?"

I have to admit that I rarely know the answer to these two questions.
That's why I was hoping that VanMan was going to elaborate a bit on how it's done.

However, it seems he may have got the hump. Not sure if I've missed something - here or elsewhere - but he did seem to get very excited, quickly.
Have some preceding posts been removed, or something?

Anyway, that's all I can offer about the requisite attributes of a winner.
Good luck , all. I need it. :)
 
Hi Chesham Chesham, did you delete a post at the beginning of this thread? VanMan's second post doesn't make much sense unless you did unless the sole reason for his arrival here was to give you a poke with his stick.
 
Thanks Chesham,
I would like to post more but I have a problem and my concentration is not as it used to be. I liked those posts by Van Man, they reminded me of some of those unselfish posters on the old Gummy site even though I was not a member. Some great lads on there, as well as on here.
 
Hi Chesham Chesham, did you delete a post at the beginning of this thread? VanMan's second post doesn't make much sense unless you did unless the sole reason for his arrival here was to give you a poke with his stick.
I just posted some examples of Pre Race Examples that I hve posted on the Subject of Class, Form and “Winner in a a race “ ie KEY RACE FORM” and how those components link together.

Also explained where “Winner In A Race “ was in my opinion was demonstrated in the Pegwell Bay Example. Basically constant CLass /form running through the Form Line.

Although Vanman had asked for Views, it would appear that he did not find my contributions helpful, so I deleted the posts to allow his thread not to be cluttered up with posts that he found did not fit in with his thoughts on “Winner In A Race”

There were no posts from me that were in conflict with Vanman but I think he thought I was trying to preach to him, judging by his replies to me and mick mick , but I think he got that bit wrong as that was not our intention. Just responding to his first post Quote from Vanman “What are others views on the required attributes?“

They were my views but sadly not of any value to Vanman. Not sure why he needed to say “Adios” as there was no conflict.
 
Just for the record and Re my own post #6 perhaps i got the wrong end of the stick but having requested other members opinions i felt that V VanMan was rather abrupt and dismissive when Chesham Chesham was good enough to provide some. Of course its fine to disagree with another member but when doing so the way we go about it counts for plenty.
 
it usually takes about 300 pages into a VDW thread before death threats are issued:) I for one would welcome any thoughts you may have about the method.

I do quite enjoy the odd VDW thread, not because I have any particular take on it, nor because I have an interest in it as in all honesty I probably don’t have the nous to pull the necessary Information together but I do find the majority of people very protective of what they know(or claim to know), to the extent that hostilities do break out when somebody voices any opinion contrary to their own. There are exceptions(within this forum) but I do find it strange when you join a place specifically because it encourages open debate that you then get the hump when debate ensues……. :confused:
 
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