• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
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    AR

Will racing resume on or before may 1st

People say back horses you think will win at the bookies and lay on Betfair , what happens you will find the horses lose and all your profit is on Betfair and you push yourself closer to PC , if anyone knows which horses were going to win/ lose to that extent you wouldn’t need to mess about .
The only way to avoid it would be to automatically put in 1000s of bets that you know are going to return a very low but positive ROI just enough to break even after commission this would mean you are not making money on that activity but bumping up your commission paid, but even that can’t just be plucked out of the air a lot of planets would have to align for you to avoid losing your nads on that kind of project.
 
nicksar said:
Out of interest O Outlander what (if any) inplay racecards do you use,I looked at Horseinplay but never got as far as subscribing but they do look pretty good.
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I don’t use anything , just bet angel to place bets one click software is essential, others like gruss I have used and that is perfectly fine, I never have a plan before the race has started just watch until something catches my eye then act on it.
 
Outlander said:
I don’t use anything , just bet angel to place bets one click software is essential, others like gruss I have used and that is perfectly fine, I never have a plan before the race has started just watch until something catches my eye then act on it.
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I use Bet Angel myself :handgestures-thumbup:
 
Outlander said:
People say back horses you think will win at the bookies and lay on Betfair , what happens you will find the horses lose and all your profit is on Betfair and you push yourself closer to PC , if anyone knows which horses were going to win/ lose to that extent you wouldn’t need to mess about .
The only way to avoid it would be to automatically put in 1000s of bets that you know are going to return a very low but positive ROI just enough to break even after commission this would mean you are not making money on that activity but bumping up your commission paid, but even that can’t just be plucked out of the air a lot of planets would have to align for you to avoid losing your nads on that kind of project.
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What about larger backing on one exchange and laying on another on low odds propositions so liabilities on the lay side are not ridiculous. Inherent risk as you say and very much down to the individuals circumstances and willingness to engage in the activity and personal circumstances.

I am thinking if you ("Royal" you not O Outlander specifically) are trading potentially use some of the higher liquid markets so less danger of fast moving markets and ability to shift larger volumes in "relative" ease.

I don't know the answer - just chewing the cud so to speak
 
Graeme said:
What about larger backing on one exchange and laying on another on low odds propositions so liabilities on the lay side are not ridiculous. Inherent risk as you say and very much down to the individuals circumstances and willingness to engage in the activity and personal circumstances.

I am thinking if you ("Royal" you not O Outlander specifically) are trading potentially use some of the higher liquid markets so less danger of fast moving markets and ability to shift larger volumes in "relative" ease.

I don't know the answer - just chewing the cud so to speak
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2 points I would make would be commission comes into play on the winning side in a cross exchange trade , you don’t want to defeat the object by losing heavily due to commission, also there is no guarantee that the losses would be generally in the exchange you want them to be there is always the law of sod to account for.
Also once you are on the the 40-60% you are powerless to do anything like this because you are potentially losing 60% on any cross exchange trade if the wins come on the BF side you are on the quick way to the poorhouse, maybe if you know that one day you will reach the 250k you can if you are very clever mitigate it somewhat, but like I say try it in practise and it won’t be easy.
If you were just put on it at the start on historical activity there is nothing you can do because the 60% on all your winning markets make you powerless.
 
Really not many have to worry about it because it should only really catch traders who green up on every market and never lose, or in-running players with picture advantage that hardly ever lose on a market, some of the better in-running players with a disadvantage were caught up because in the early days it was more of a level playing field.
Normal backing of horses and over the years it takes you if you are exceptional to make 250k you will have done it in a way that you will have paid enough commission as to not be troubled that much by the PC2.
 
I had similar thoughts & conclusions re potential pitfalls with cross exchange betting. I'd have to dig the sql & spreadsheets out but i think what I came to from the amount I played around with it was that backing & laying the same shortie in high liquid markets to as close 0 as poss seemed to offer the most potential to delay pc.
But that was just theory, those who've lived it etc will know better.
 
Outlander said:
Normal backing of horses and over the years it takes you if you are exceptional to make 250k you will have done it in a way that you will have paid enough commission as to not be troubled that much by the PC2.
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Thanks for your last two responses and I think this is true - I guess if you are luckily enough to have the chance to try and offset the risk then it may make sense to build some of that into your plans. Truly recreational backers may well not need to worry, But anyone aspiring to create a significant and potentially professional income should be aware and adjust their methods accordingly I guess
 
Maybe it’s changed now but I’m sure it used to be that if you had naturally paid over 20% of you gross profit in commission you wouldn’t be liable for PC , if this is the case it would be virtually impossible to place pre race bets make that kind of profit and not be over the 20%, you would have to be totally exceptional gambler.
 
An average gambler in an exchange should how no trouble breaking even with 100% books, they WILL be beaten by commission.
The decent gambler will be able to make a profit on the exchanges but will probably end up losing or at nest breaking even because of commission
A great gambler will make a profit even after the churning of commission.
An extraordinary gambler ( probably a trader or big advantage ) will make consistent profits on nearly every market they play and be hammered by PC because Betfair’s commission doesn’t impact them at all and Betfair want in on the action.
Personally I don’t fit any of these I just good at in running and did very well in the early days so have been lobbed in with the ones that Betfair want most of the their profits for themselves , a bit unfortunate for me but shouldn’t worry the vast majority of punters even the great ones.
 
I have found this in my BF Account details ( listed under betting activity - premium charge) the numbers have left me feeling confused because although it was years ago i feel certain that as soon as i received the e mail saying i was going on to PC and established that this was not a mistake i withdrew my deposit and stopped betting with them. But my reading of the below is that i paid £1200 PC. ?

I have just checked my own records which show net after commission profits of £13,494.59p during my BF experience and i would expect these to be bang on so i am now left wishing that i had not looked.! PC aside there appears to be £375.30p difference between there figs and mine and its now doing my nut in. !

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mick said:
I have found this in my BF Account details ( listed under betting activity - premium charge) the numbers have left me feeling confused because although it was years ago i feel certain that as soon as i received the e mail saying i was going on to PC and established that this was not a mistake i withdrew my deposit and stopped betting with them. But my reading of the below is that i paid £1200 PC. ?

I have just checked my own records which show net after commission profits of £13,494.59p during my BF experience and these would have been bang on so i am now left wishing that i had not looked.! Does the Gross profit & loss mean turnover.?

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Cant find anything that looks remotely like that - anyone know where exactly to look - be good to know even though I am a way short right now :)
 
mick said:
I have found this in my BF Account details ( listed under betting activity - premium charge) the numbers have left me feeling confused because although it was years ago i feel certain that as soon as i received the e mail saying i was going on to PC and established that this was not a mistake i withdrew my deposit and stopped betting with them. But my reading of the below is that i paid £1200 PC. ?

I have just checked my own records which show net after commission profits of £13,494.59p during my BF experience and these would have been bang on so i am now left wishing that i had not looked.! Does the Gross profit & loss mean turnover.?

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Yes the premium charge here is a pretend premium charge to bring you up to the 20% , it doesn’t mean you paid it, but your numbers suggest you would end up paying it, if you replicated you exact same activity over the next period they would have taken £1251 more from you because it looks like naturally you are paying only 12.4 % in commission which would say to be you were very efficient , so you would be asked to make this up to 20% , it wouldn’t be enough to put me off with those numbers but you would certainty be paying a little more , it would probably equate to paying 4 % commission instead of 2% if you put it in those terms still not too bad.
Now i will probably blow your mind but my guess is at the time you would be paying overv4% commission and the £ 2028 commission is implied commission assumed to be a lot less than you are paying I can’t remember if it was 2% or 3% so in affect if you availed yourself of the new 2% commission and paid the expected premium charge you would probably end up paying less than you were in them days when I’m guessing you were on a rate of between 4-5%.
I would still use betfair if I was in your situation , especially as you have a long way to go to get to PC2.
Looking at your figures though I imagine if you carried on like that if you reach 250k profit you may qualify for the lowest PC2 rate of 40%, but would certainly fully utilise BF in the meantime if I were you.
I honestly believe you would be on better terms than you were then before you reached PC.
 
Graeme said:
Cant find anything that looks remotely like that - anyone know where exactly to look - be good to know even though I am a way short right now :)
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Actually it must only appear if on it - I was hoping for a you are here - pc here - this how far you have to go kind of thing - silly me ;-)
 
mick said:
have just checked my own records which show net after commission profits of £13,494.59p during my BF experience and these would have been bang on so i am now left wishing that i had not looked.! Does the Gross profit & loss mean turnover.?
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Don’t worry about this your figures will be correct it is because of implied commission in the calculations,
 
Cheers O Outlander i was starting to wind up myself. I guess my bad because i have never fully investigated the PC T&Cs but needs must i shall now be doing so. Tbh i had not looked at anything to do with the exchange on there site for years and it was only by chance this afternoon that i found my personal exchange stats.
 
mick said:
I have found this in my BF Account details ( listed under betting activity - premium charge) the numbers have left me feeling confused because although it was years ago i feel certain that as soon as i received the e mail saying i was going on to PC and established that this was not a mistake i withdrew my deposit and stopped betting with them. But my reading of the below is that i paid £1200 PC. ?

I have just checked my own records which show net after commission profits of £13,494.59p during my BF experience and i would expect these to be bang on so i am now left wishing that i had not looked.! PC aside there appears to be £375.30p difference between there figs and mine and its now doing my nut in. !

View attachment 83363
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On closer inspection of your figures you made a net profit of £13,494.59
Now the exact same bets would result in a net profit of £13,119,29
So a difference on that activity of £375.30 less
It would be up to you if you believe this would have been a price worth paying mick mick
 
Outlander said:
On closer inspection of your figures you made a net profit of £13,494.59
Now the exact same bets would result in a net profit of £13,119,29
So a difference on that activity of £375.30 less
It would be up to you if you believe this would have been a price worth paying mick mick
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Mystery solved and many thanks for that. I always blame myself first and during that period i was also having additional bets on the same horses with some bookmakers i could still get on with. The BF earns where shown separate in my personal accounts but at first i thought i had cocked up when using my calculator.

Re do i believe it will be worth it ? currently I can still get on with help but its a pain, so yes i am now thinking that it might be. During this period of inactivity i shall certainly be investigating. Many thanks for your help and explanations. :clap:
 
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