Hi
markfinn
When I subscribed to Tony Drapkin Hoof Ratings he tested his Odds against the actual expected outcome. Ie a Even Money odds won 50% of the time. 5/4 won the expected percentage of Races and so on .
The only way one could tell if their own tissue prices were accurate would be to test them against the expected percentage of success.
Even if ones Even Money Tissue was accurate it would lose half of the time. Even greater amount of losers, as one moves up the Tissue odds
Clearly a balance has to be sought with
A) The amount of Bank required to stand losing runs .(Tony recommended a Bank of 300 Points)
B) Rob Morris only backed his up to 9/2 on his Tissue. ie If the horse was 9/2 on his tissue or less he would back if he could get odds greater. The reason being is that he knew backing his tissue odds that we’re 5/1 or greater on his tissue would result in losing runs greater than he was comfortable with.
Rob was using his opinion based on various factors and not from converting Ratings or mathematical modelling, it was pure experience.