Why is value never value?

[retriever]

OnTheNod It's not 10% - it's even higher at 15%.
That's what I was trying to point out.

 

[Chesham]

 

[markfinn]

The forecast is the Tissue Price -same one as ATR , Dally Mail etc (racing Pages supply the Tissue to these )

Thanks I thought so - so we are talking about value based on some one else's opinion - when in fact the true value is to be gauged at the off when we know the horse is actually down at the post and looks ready to go - ring watchers will have it over on all, I appreciate that most have rely on other ring watchers to hold the price up.

I have never understood backers who back night before at odds (BOG excepted, which most cannot get anyway) and then complain about a drifter. Same with SP backers - might as well wait until the off until to ensure the horse is still value at your tissue

For it would be sense to say I have 50% at over estimated or actual value before the of and then reassess at the off, is it still viable to back to the hilt. Can still have drifted and be value against your opinion or shortened which may give assurance or shortened out of a punters considered sense range .

Without our own tissue are we not simply following or bring trampled by the heard

 

[tacker]

markfinn
While I might agree with you that taking a price the night before without bog might seem a bit silly but does it not demonstrate that you have a strong opinion on whether or not you can see value, my own approach is that I might have half the stake on early and the other half when bog come into force.

 

[Chesham]

Hi markfinn

When I subscribed to Tony Drapkin Hoof Ratings he tested his Odds against the actual expected outcome. Ie a Even Money odds won 50% of the time. 5/4 won the expected percentage of Races and so on .

The only way one could tell if their own tissue prices were accurate would be to test them against the expected percentage of success.

Even if ones Even Money Tissue was accurate it would lose half of the time. Even greater amount of losers, as one moves up the Tissue odds

Clearly a balance has to be sought with

A) The amount of Bank required to stand losing runs .(Tony recommended a Bank of 300 Points)

B) Rob Morris only backed his up to 9/2 on his Tissue. ie If the horse was 9/2 on his tissue or less he would back if he could get odds greater. The reason being is that he knew backing his tissue odds that we’re 5/1 or greater on his tissue would result in losing runs greater than he was comfortable with.

Rob was using his opinion based on various factors and not from converting Ratings or mathematical modelling, it was pure experience.

 

[markfinn]

No matter how many hours we spend on a race - cannot possibly ever find value if the horse is not fit - or not in the race - stall draw alters - going alters - jockey shift etc

my own approach is that I might have half the stake on early and the other half when bog come into force

My approach 50 at odds and 50 at BSP - I never pull the BSP bet but seems prudent to leave it there

 

[Chesham]

For the Factors that Rob Morris used see https://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/ingredients-to-consider.22797/post-98910


Another aspect is how many contenders you consider are in with a chance of winning and how close are those contenders to each other

 

[mick]

markfinn
While I might agree with you that taking a price the night before without bog might seem a bit silly but does it not demonstrate that you have a strong opinion on whether or not you can see value, my own approach is that I might have half the stake on early and the other half when bog come into force.

This is in line with my own thinking. When i take a day before non bog price i am doing so because imo that price is good value. If it drifts on the day and i complain i am complaining to myself for not correctly anticipating said drift. My weakness is that having done the advanced work and made the case if the first show EP is deemed decent value then i assume that others will be thinking likewise, which is the wrong mind set and a work in progress.

 

[markfinn]

if we take the OR as the common best rating - just for arguments sake s

a random race today - by pure chance and coincidence it has the last evenings price (thats the column that I use on my spreadsheet for todays date ) and is usually overwritten



the OR has 19 point spread between 10 horse 2 pts per place ( tighter at the top I know) - simplistically - min price 2/1 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20/1



Min price 11/4



makes you think this forum