Why is value never value?

[markfinn]

pro-longed purple patch ? not many of those

 

[mick]

pro-longed purple patch ? not many of those

I did not prefix with prolonged but if your playing at high avg prices and mine are > 10/1 then just a few of same can make a big difference in a short period , and i have previously achieved this.

 

[pawras]

analysing purple and black patches is a whole subject itself

 

[formtheory]

Hi mick

I set a min bet of 2/1 nowadays, as bet mainly in Handicaps.

For me I think after you've been betting for a while you get a feeling about the price you want for a horse.

 

[Bertie123]

I think all the arguments for and against value forget one important fact. Nobody knows what the correct value should be for any given horse. There is no scientific or mathematical formula to show this. Yes we all have ratings and opinions and Betfair and other markets to look at but not one of those can possibly know what the correct value for each horse should be. It is a subjective matter. I tried to find value by creating a 100% book and converting the odds from the RP betting forecast to exactly 100% and if the first or second fav looked to have similar and winnable form I would back the one that drifted out to a “ value” price. I had some success with this as I was kidding myself that for example I was getting 9/4 about a 7/4 chance. But was it really a 7/4 chance in the first place ? I agree with the views here that Value is in the eye of the beholder. The one way to really get value of course is to have an edge others don’t have. Many years ago I used to subscribe to Futureform which was a weekly publication of every horse that had a listed or group race entry both here and in Italy and France. Today of course you just click on the entries tab on the horse profile page in the RP website and there is the information, But back in those days it was difficult to find. So I went to Newbury to back an unraced Novice Hurdler called MATINEE in a novice hurdle, trained by Merrick Francis and entered during the next few weeks in the High Class graded Glenlivit Trophy at Aintree. It was the last race of the day and all the horses had come into the paddock Except MATINEE and then this magnificent looking horse came in. What a stunner. I went to Tattersalls to have a bet thinking this was surely around 3/1 which I would have been happy with. It was 33/1. Led all the way and romped in. Now that WAS a value bet. But today with all the technology and information everywhere it is almost impossible to get an edge. I sometimes get stable information but the prices are always short because the bookmakers are aware of most stable jobs given they have a “man” in most yards. Form horses do win of course but are usually priced up accordingly. It’s trying to look deep into the race and find an unexposed one. The big meetings have been pretty good to me mainly in very competitive handicaps where a good three year old that won say a maiden last time out in a good time figure and most importantly of all quickened up well in the last 100 yards. HUKUM at Royal Ascot was a good example. First run of the season at Royal Ascot? Previous year won a maiden in a good time. Well bred, top class trainer and won at 12/1 though was a bigger price earlier in the day on Betfair. These unexposed types are difficult to find but if you do find them you will also find the ever elusive Value.

 

[kenny jones]

Hi Bertie123,
Great analysis!!

 

[tacker]

I think those saying that "value is subjective" are correct and we use the word merely as a guide, if it is possible to demonstrate that a horse might have a better chance of winning than the odds would suggest is about all anyone can offer.
Almost every evening bookies like bet365 appear to have had money come for a horse say from 10/1 to 5/1, if you get the early price it might be possible to argue it was value but if it stays at 5/1 sp then it still only has a 1 in 6 chance of winning so very likely to lose, does it therefore mean that only the winners are value ?
"WHY IS VALUE NEVER VALUE" ?
Sort of answers it's own question i suppose but we punters do have the option not to bet which strikes me has having a small advantage over the layer which should be valued in itself.

 

[mick]

Sometimes value is created by circumstances. The opening Bookmaker EPs will be based on opinion but at some point they will start betting to numbers in an attempt to balance there field money. My interest today is Placebo Effect who has been knocked out to 16/1 because despite this being a 17 run Hcap it appears that only the front two in the market are being backed and this has now forced the Books to seek money for the others.

 

[Bertie123]

Hi Bertie123,
Great analysis!!

Thanks Kenny. Its just my opinion but the great thing about this forum is that lots of people have such good opinions.

 

[pawras]

In my personal setup I can test dutching n horses in a race according xyz criteria, but just doing a blanket dutch of the top 5 in the market in every race where there's >=6 runners showed on average just how on fiendishly accurate the market is on the exchange.
Basically just further showed how to 'beat the market'/'obtain value' one needs an edge/info other people don't have in a chosen subset of races over the year.

 

[mick]

In my personal setup I can test dutching n horses in a race according xyz criteria, but just doing a blanket dutch of the top 5 in the market in every race where there's >=6 runners showed on average just how on fiendishly accurate the market is on the exchange.
Basically just further showed how to 'beat the market'/'obtain value' one needs an edge/info other people don't have in a chosen subset of races over the year.

The front of the market has well proven long term accuracy and this is where the majority of punters play but we know that the majority will not make any long term profit. There is a perverse contradiction in this.?

 

[pawras]

The front of the market has well proven long term accuracy and this is where the majority of punters play but we know that the majority will not make any long term profit. There is a perverse contradiction in this.?

on the exchange it appears that the further away from the top of the market you get the more out of sync it can be with bookies in general i.e. possibly indicates a lot more potential unknowns for those runners and ergo possibilities for some to derive/obtain info for them that is not generally known.

 

[Chesham]

The only way to test if the odds lines that you are creating are accurate is to test them against the outcome

Example a even mons odds line should win 50% of the Time

Example BFSP Even Money actual win more than 50% and profit backed blindly

 

[Chesham]

Combine the Forecast Odds with BFSP

 

[Chesham]

Strange things happen when The Forecast is even but the horse is a backed at less than the Actual forecast ie poor value

 

[retriever]

Hi Chesham I noticed that you are comparing BFSP to SP in these examples.
The ISP will have an over-round of say 25-30% baked in and so for your example in post #33 the Even money at BFSP ( will be in the 4/5 - 1/1 SP range ) the profit will be even greater at 11.16 pts ( including 2% comm. deduction ).


.

 

[markfinn]

What am I missing here ! The forecast is that tissue prices ?

 

[OnTheNod]

I like Chesham way of getting value he goes well into the breeding and spots them before they have run much, i do this in a crude way with a few of my systems so is very hit and miss, but towards the end of last year it gave 100/1 winner and paid alot more bfsp i did not even bet it, of course this is extreme example but is maybe one of the better ways these days with the unsteady form of racing. Again just my thoughts on things.

Also that is interesting in regards even money shots and 10% on BF opens one eyes.

 

[kenny jones]

Thanks Kenny. Its just my opinion but the great thing about this forum is that lots of people have such good opinions.

Hi Bertie,
I haven't been with the forum that long but the level of knowledge and opinion on here is great.I have been a greyhound punter for years,but the forums on here have got me interested in the geegees again
Kenny

 

[Chesham]

What am I missing here ! The forecast is that tissue prices ?

The forecast is the Tissue Price -same one as ATR , Dally Mail etc (racing Pages supply the Tissue to these )