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Why is value never value?

LukeyBoy

Yearling
I've been trying to solve the Horse racing problem a few years now.I've got files with over 500,000 runners etc that I've analysed and with backtesting and in the live environment.One thing that I've always found which kind of odd is that when I think I have value in fact if the Betfair win% is greater then mine it has always always performed better.
I read somewhere that this true for a lot of systems etc I guess despite what we think the market is alot wiser then us.
Just wonder if people have tested there own results and may be surprised that flipping what they see as value there own results improve.
 

dave58

Administrator
Have to agree with markfinn markfinn to be honest.
I don't think about value on a race to race basis because honestly I wouldn't have a clue how to go about it.
My systems make profits overall and I can explain my thinking behind all of them.
There are many members here who use different methods to me and do far better than myself.
I like to think that we can all learn from each other and in doing so increase our knowledge (and hopefully profit)!
 

kenny jones

Yearling
Hi,
Value is simply in the eye of the beholder.One example could be that you view a course specialist as an important bit of form,then one day he turns up at 14s so you regard that as good value.Others will say that despite him being a course specialist,there are better horses in the field who have run at similar courses.Where is the value now.??
Ken
 

markfinn

Sire
Hi,
Value is simply in the eye of the beholder.One example could be that you view a course specialist as an important bit of form,then one day he turns up at 14s so you regard that as good value.Others will say that despite him being a course specialist,there are better horses in the field who have run at similar courses.Where is the value now.??
Ken
Rate the race and percentage advantage required by yourself - if the odds are equal to or over the req you have value
 
I used to look for "value" and to be honest I never really got anywhere. Now I look for thd horse I think will win and do much better. Sounds obvious but I believe I over complicated matters for myself.

I agree with markfinn markfinn and dave58 dave58 if your horse wins it's value to you. After all the reason it's possible to make money betting on horse racing is that it is based around opinions not facts like Roulette, Blackjack etc....
 

markfinn

Sire
Hi Mark,
I agree so value again is in the eye of the beholder.
yes it took me a little while to understand ( get my head around and I still instinctively veer away from such ideas ) why an odds on shot can ever be value - but if the work is done and confidence is there - there is value to be had in most things at the considered correct price - I suppose the obvious question is how do you extract a worthwhile profit from some , but that's up to the buyer to square away.

We have ingrained ideas that need to be challenged if only to disprove or prove to our self's.
 

mick

Sire
I used to look for "value" and to be honest I never really got anywhere. Now I look for the horse I think will win and do much better. Sounds obvious but I believe I over complicated matters for myself.
Why not combine both by only betting when the horse you think will win is also offered at a value price, In theory a peaches and cream. :)
 

pawras

Colt
you might think you are getting value but you never know for sure until after the event, your 'true odds' /min odds required are always just a personal opinion when it comes down to brass tacks. i.e if when betting at evens you are only getting value if you win more than 50% of the time.
 

mick

Sire
you might think you are getting value but you never know for sure until after the event.
My take on this is different but each to there own. :) When you only bet at what you consider to be value odds then your losers are just part of the profit parcel. If you back a winner at your perceived poor value price then imo you have made no gains. The real straighter is our individual perception of value.
 

retriever

Gelding
Plain statistics of just betting on every Evens money shot that comes along means you will win 45% of the time with a ROI of -10% to ISP and -5% to BFSP - numbers rounded - source HRB.

From this, it's our job is to decern whether the horse has a better than 50% chance of winning. So, therefore, it doesn't matter whether we think the horse will win or not - that's immaterial - it's whether we are beating the odds or the 50%. That's the concept of value betting from what I know.
As for knowing if we have 'value' or not, only our ROI will show.
 

kenny jones

Yearling
This is the real test because if you have a long term positive Roi then you will have been obtaining value as part of.
Hi Mick,
Not necessarily so,because you are not betting on every race every day if you were you would lose.However by being selective you are applying method and by applying method you are selecting fewer horses with(according to your criteria) have a good chance of winning.Your positive ROI has little to do with value and everything to do with the efficiency of your selection methods.
kenny
 

mick

Sire
is why it most important to have clear view of prices required and sticking to them
I would be the first to admit that its not an easy discipline to acquire or maintain and over the years i could give several examples of doing so costing me, but these are the ones we tend to recall not the more frequent times when observing the rule has enabled swerving a poor value loser.
 

markfinn

Sire
which then beggars the question - in a prolonged ( longer than expected ) down turn would that necessitate a lengthening of odds required ?
 

mick

Sire
which then beggars the question - in a prolonged ( longer than expected ) down turn would that necessitate a lengthening of odds required ?
Only if i shortened them during a purple patch and hopefully my honest answer is no defiantly not in both cases.
 
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