• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
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    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
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    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

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    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
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    Best Wishes
    AR

Why Betting Systems Can Help The Human Race More Than A Horse Race

arkle55

Sire
All of the above is way above my head, but is interesting so i am reading and understanding what i can in my own slow way.

Why horse racing and not sports where there is no dead heat/draw just win or loose. Like Tennis, snooker, etc etc. In tennis or snooker there would be more certainty then a heads or tails contest. Having said that, not that i know much about either sport, so perhaps somebody may answer this question. Of all the tennis and snooker matches in one to the last ten years, take the top four ranked from both sports, which of the two sports is the most likely to have a top four player play in a final, and which of the two sports is the most likely to have a top four player win the final. My feeling is, the answer is tennis but i do not no for sure.
 

Chesham

Sire
I wonder if anyone has come up with a system for Match Bets in Horse Racing. It was something that I found profitable mostly buying the spread, but had to stick to Grp and Listed races where even if the horse was not going to win it was at least trying to get black place type after its name. Of course some Jockeys liked to showboat and did not put as many lengths between the horse you were buying and the other match horse. Even though you had beat the spread, it was eating into your profit.
 

arkle55

Sire
Chesham Chesham , you just jogged my memory. Within betting shops you do see from time to time horse match bets of different grades. I'm not sure though if this is a regular thing. It may be offered more on the internet. It maybe something that can be exploited.

Arkle
 

Chesham

Sire
Sporting Index was the firm that I used and was a Telephone account. The Spread would change throughout the day. The reason I liked it in the late nineties was because your winning were not taxed this was incorporated into the spread.

This was a Spread form earlier this morning, but I would never do spread betting in NH Races as if the Horses falls you are 15 lengths + the Spread X Your Stakes, well it was 15 lengths in NH Races when I backed this way.

Screen Shot 2014-10-27 at 12.39.23.png

My favourite were 12f Races less problems than Sprint races with regards bad luck etc. With 12f races and younger horses the Pedigree could give a clue as Stamina comes in to the equation.
 
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mick

Sire
As I learn more about racing I find myself, as Ark Royal notes, tending towards using my system as a stepping stone towards my final decision of whether a bet is a good one. When I divert from my system's instructions I have resolved to do as Mick suggests and record why I have done so. If I prayed to the Horse gods for a single gift then it would be for the discipline to practise what I preach.

The topic of record keeping is worthy of its own thread.Even a very basic tally showing profit /loss and expenses, but recording why you placed each wager has imo multiple advantages and is time well spent.

When you can look back at several years actual results then any new ideas or filters can be better judged RE the effect on the bets you placed not those you might have.This decreases the risks involved in back fitting.

But another more individual way it works for myself is being able to reference what i call "similar situation" bets.You build a decent case for backing a horse but there is one aspect involved(or more than) which you view as a negative(s).I don't know about you guys but this is a regular occurrence for myself. The easy out is to just swerve the wager but reference to past bets you have placed under similar circumstances when the horse has won might give the extra confidence needed to place the bet.?

The recording is not time consuming and over the years i have developed my own short hand as a quick starting point. An example might be TW LF ND which to me says top weight large field new distance.All possible negatives in today's bet but those six letters may enable quick reference to a previous bet(s) containing same which won.

When making the final call on a possible bet perception plays a part but what is this other than past experience.? Good record keeping can evidence and reinforce both.
 
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sootywooty

Gelding
All of the above is way above my head, but is interesting so i am reading and understanding what i can in my own slow way.

Why horse racing and not sports where there is no dead heat/draw just win or loose. Like Tennis, snooker, etc etc. In tennis or snooker there would be more certainty then a heads or tails contest. Having said that, not that i know much about either sport, so perhaps somebody may answer this question. Of all the tennis and snooker matches in one to the last ten years, take the top four ranked from both sports, which of the two sports is the most likely to have a top four player play in a final, and which of the two sports is the most likely to have a top four player win the final. My feeling is, the answer is tennis but i do not no for sure.

Hi arkle55 arkle55! personally i find SB a little easier with not as many factors to consider, i have used stats mainly since i finished serious HR betting in 1995, and basically used current form, combined with venue form and mainly place betting or ew if the odds are good, is much harder nowadays since about 2001, but i always found snooker the easier of the two you mention.
 
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Chesham

Sire
fascinating read Chesham Chesham
i'm sure Alan or Bill would have liked you to have been part of their team

I think their approach was well thought out, pick somewhere that only has two tracks and probaly the biggest Totepool in the world to bet in. They only need to be better at picking winners than the rest of the crowd, at odds that are better than there true probability, to generate a constant profit.
 

sootywooty

Gelding
Well said Steve and i am pleased to second that.! He has even got me playing chess again.The bloody machine wins even when i cheat.!

Hi mick mick! i use to play it at school! i tried for about year a while back online and started with around 1000 rating and got up to nearly 1600, also i use to play matches online for up to a couple of hour each day, but every time i come up against someone with about 2000 rating i got beat except once so gave up.

I use practise against the pc machine also at grandmaster level for about 3 games a day, but the best i ever did was 34 moves, most times around 2o odd lol.

Is a skilled game, but to be really good i think one has to have loads of natural talent for it, but you have to make loads of mental notes similar to HR, and i suppose the finish of a horse race is much more exciting also if you win of course.
 

Chigorin

Filly
Chesham Chesham I've watched all the videos. Thanks again for posting them. For me any anybody with a background in maths or probability there aren't any big surprises but he is a good speaker and we can't be reminded about the basic math behind betting too much. The article was probably even more informative. The sort of system referred to is exactly the sort of system I was trying to describe in much of what I have said on this thread but more specifically in 'part three' when I concentrated on systems. A with a key idea is obviously that their system is taking into account every aspect of a horse race that they can quantify.

With the Bill Benter videos I was interested in his answer to one of the questions at the end of the last video where he says that bookmakers don't use such a system but are market driven. Do you think this is still true? (I note he was stood in front of a rostrum with 2004 on it.) Good news for us if bookmakers are focused on guarding against loses rather than selecting winners.

Thanks again for sharing these.
 

dave58

Administrator
I think bookmakers have to be totally market-driven if only to guard against 'surprise' results . Surely that's where the savvy punters have their edge, in that generally they don't follow the crowd and hence obtain their 'value' ?
 

Chesham

Sire
Hi Chigorin Chigorin

Bill Benter was betting against being better than the Average Punters in the Tote Pool and not having to worry about Bookmakers manipulating the odds.

These days the Betfair Market appears to influence the market as regards Bookmakers, so yes I would say that what Benter says holds true in 2014.
 

Chigorin

Filly
I think bookmakers have to be totally market-driven if only to guard against 'surprise' results . Surely that's where the savvy punters have their edge, in that generally they don't follow the crowd and hence obtain their 'value' ?

I'm not so sure they are (totally market driven), dave58 dave58

Sometimes I look at the 'estimated bets posted on the internet' bit on the Racing Post website and calculate the potential loses / winning for the bookies if each horse comes in. I'm surprised how little prices have moved to cushion a potential loss for the bookies sometimes. Of course my argument holds true only if the information being given is a fair reflection of all bets, but I wonder if they are more attached to their own systems than one may think. Certainly, as Bill observes above, they presumably have a system to generate original odds.
 

arkle55

Sire
Chigorin Chigorin hi. I would agree the R/Post has it's own way to generate original odds, but the online odds can change over night with the influence of Betfair. Also the R/Post on line forecast /odds can be very different to the R/Post paper.

Arkle
 
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