• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

VRR Lite Puntology

Worked out well yesterday. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

squirrel.png

A couple of ok type races today. One that could work out is Finawn Bawn, stands up well with a little uncertainty about the next ranked Duc De Grissay in this class. Dragonfruit just creeps onto the lay list.

Ayr 3.23

Ayr 3.23.png

Lay List (to qualify, odds =<11.00 near the off)

LayList.png
 
Got my ass handed to on a plate yesterday. In highlighted race, main selection, although backed from 3/1 to 9/4, lost. Just about got the Lay right. The Lay list lost about 16pts as Ask Blossomfort won at the high end of the maria odds range, 11.00. The other 2 were beaten as expected.

One race to highlight today.

Hexham 3.35

Golan Cloud has a strong rating and is in the market as the fav @2/1. The value indicator (with a 1.50 multipier) should be around 5/2. Its the only selection that has evidence of performing well in the class. The only other one, so far, that has value in the race, is Shoeshine Boy. There are no Lay types in the Lay range at current odds.

Hexh3.35.png

Lay List - (Max lay odds 11.00)

LayList.png
 
The winner of the yesterdays highlighted race came out of left field. Another example of the inconsistencies of a Class 5 type race. The Top-Rated did come into value range finishing 3rd. The 20/80 (W.Pl) staking would have worked out ok on that selection. The Lay list picked up a +2pts, the other 2 also lost, although the odds were too high.

Todays fare, another Class 5, is shown more to demonstrate the interpretation more than a stand out opportunity. The Value indicator, based on the rating achieved, suggests 2/1 M.A.P for Taqwaa, trading at 7/1. The next on the list has some doubt for consistency in the class. Matewan, creeps into the Lay List for the same reason, where as Presuming looks weak, but is better in this class.


MRas 2.55.png

Lay List

LayList.png
 
Must steer clear of those pesky Class 5 races...Lay list yielded +5pts.

Had a review of all the races I've assessed so far (loads of others not posted) I Need to focus on Class 1 to Class 4 Handicaps/Non-Handicaps more.

The one today:

Leoncavallo has a strong bias on its' profile and represents some value. The ole 20/80 (Win/Place) could yield a profit. The early fav, looks weaker but should compete in the Class ok, so not quite a Lay. The Lay looks to be Method Madness, maybe 11.00 or less nearer the off time could be offered.

Ascot 2.40.png


Lay List - Not many opportunities today.


Lay List.png
 
Good race to watch. 20/80 landed and the Lay List picked up +2pts.

I revisited one of the old spreadsheets and reviewed some of the key races today. I also used some of the ratings off the previously mentioned website; BackThatHorse. Back That Horse created and maintained by pawras pawras (great resource) (y)

Also, created the base ratings in the same say the Inform Racing - Betting Tissue Tool does.
Betting Tissue Tool 1 - Inform Racing

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The above race, Ascot 2.40, has a different complexion, with those above the line, and in the right class, to consider as value backs, and below the line, not in the right class, as poor value Lay options. (if 11.00 or less).

So in this example, 7.3 and 2 above the line with a value index above 1.00, can be shortlisted. Below the line 4 and 9, short-listed for Lays.

Ascot 2.40.png

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Ascot 2.05 example, shows only no.5 (above the line) as value in the right class. No.7 although top-rated and seemingly value, may not do so in this class. Below the line, 4,8&6 are poor value in not in this class. No 8 falls into the price range of less than 11.00.

Ascot 2.05.png

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Chepstow 3.25 example has 1,3&4 as value above the line and in the right class, No.5 looks value, but not in the right class. Below the line, 2,11 &12 are short-listed as poor value Lays, none in the right price range,


Chep 3.25.png

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I was surprised to see how well the data held up. Only time will tell as we move forward.
 
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