VDW VDW Tipping Thread
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mick
Sire
Indeed and well said because to do so sets a fine forum example and benchmark. We can all find excuses for not bothering to contribute but imo personal health problems or those of a loved one is one of the few valid ones. With this in mind well done yourself.
mjay
Gelding
I posted this this morning on formtheory's new blog but thought I would post it here. Before I took notice of mick, chesham I was after the VDW magic system. 2 years later I realise the magic is hard work! I would recommend anyone to heed their advice. For example I have leaned about the concept of hotraces from Chesham. mlmrob has pointed me in the way of profiles and mick has shown the importance of looking at old form and waiting for the ideal opportunity and more importantly price before betting.
I thought it might be helpful to point out horses in the first 5 in the betting with a clear superiority in the ability rating as a possible place to start study. I have been investigating the relationship between top A/R and also best prize ever won. I also like to see the horse being in the top 3 best prize for the distance of today’s race.
1.50 York - First Eleven – Towers over the rest with a rating of 34, which should arguably be higher as he won a class 62 over roughly this distance last year. Obviously this is 3yo form which I feel should be treated with caution and no run for over 200 days.
3.00 - Limato – Has won a group 1 over this distance. But this was in 2016. As a 7yo does he still have the speed? The variety of distances run over last season suggests the trainer may not be sure. Has won 3 out of 5 attempts at group 2 and placed every time he has attempted this race value. No run yet however this season & is 0-2 when running between 200 and 300 days.
7.45 Punchstown – Farclas. Won a small race on first try over fences. Has by far the best A/R as a result of running in high value hurdle races. However, Stowaway Forever may muddy the waters as he has far more jumping experience in higher class races and has come close twice in this arena.
In reference to my comments about validating form I looked at Starcaster in the 5.05 York. He ran 2nd to the progressive King’s Advice at Thirsk LTO and has since won a class 2 race at Ripon. This is a much larger field however at a grade 1 course. I would not want the skinny price in a 20 runner field.
Similarly at Perth in the 8.05 I looked at Shanroe Al C. A winner of his last race over C&D, the 2nd place has since won. However this was an amateur race and the form should be treated with caution. Won a larger field race in Limerick 2nd LTO. Handicap put him up 8lbs for the win so taking no chances with an improving Irish runner.
I felt there was conflict in this race with Presence Felt who is only 1lb higher than winning here at this meeting last year. That race eventually produced winners at up to class 2 & 3.
I thought it might be helpful to point out horses in the first 5 in the betting with a clear superiority in the ability rating as a possible place to start study. I have been investigating the relationship between top A/R and also best prize ever won. I also like to see the horse being in the top 3 best prize for the distance of today’s race.
1.50 York - First Eleven – Towers over the rest with a rating of 34, which should arguably be higher as he won a class 62 over roughly this distance last year. Obviously this is 3yo form which I feel should be treated with caution and no run for over 200 days.
3.00 - Limato – Has won a group 1 over this distance. But this was in 2016. As a 7yo does he still have the speed? The variety of distances run over last season suggests the trainer may not be sure. Has won 3 out of 5 attempts at group 2 and placed every time he has attempted this race value. No run yet however this season & is 0-2 when running between 200 and 300 days.
7.45 Punchstown – Farclas. Won a small race on first try over fences. Has by far the best A/R as a result of running in high value hurdle races. However, Stowaway Forever may muddy the waters as he has far more jumping experience in higher class races and has come close twice in this arena.
In reference to my comments about validating form I looked at Starcaster in the 5.05 York. He ran 2nd to the progressive King’s Advice at Thirsk LTO and has since won a class 2 race at Ripon. This is a much larger field however at a grade 1 course. I would not want the skinny price in a 20 runner field.
Similarly at Perth in the 8.05 I looked at Shanroe Al C. A winner of his last race over C&D, the 2nd place has since won. However this was an amateur race and the form should be treated with caution. Won a larger field race in Limerick 2nd LTO. Handicap put him up 8lbs for the win so taking no chances with an improving Irish runner.
I felt there was conflict in this race with Presence Felt who is only 1lb higher than winning here at this meeting last year. That race eventually produced winners at up to class 2 & 3.
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Chesham
Sire
Temperament is about the way the you react when analysing a race . Habitual tendency etc. Most interpret it as resisting the temptation to bet. But if you always approach everything the same way “Characteristically, then you will have no problems as you are repeating the same success formula.Well doneChesham - I'm regretting not having a forecast on the Perth race, still temperament is all allegedly...
Quote VDW ‘s definition of Temperament (Systematic Betting) 'Manner of thinking or Behaving, or reacting characteristic of a particular individual. A disposition which in turn is defined as ...'Personality, temperament, habitual tendency or inclination'
mick
Sire
Ah yes
Chesham but if your temperament triggers habitual ultra cautious tendency's you may end up backing nothing which means you will not be a losing punter and how many can honestly claim this. Have i just found and worse still shared the missing link. ? 
Ps : My temperament gets sorted via a swear box which over the course of a years betting is on a very good earn......... F*** It.
Prior to reading VDWs five point plan (with the Hard work bit being the only aspect i understood then and now ) i had my own six pointer Class Weight Fitness - Dist Course Going. Forty years on and i still use and prefer mine.
Mine does not enable profitable after timing but this aspect remains a work in progress. If only i could learn to "read" what i have said.!
mjay Re your above it has the makings of a PSP Positive Starting Point and these are helpful (mine being my own ratings) so best of with that, because imo its always preferable to spend your time attempting to learn more about less. ? I had ten races to work on a busy Fri but from these only 3 produced possible bets off ratings who then needed to be profiled. One of these was fairly easy to dismiss , so i had - have plenty of time to go in deep for 2 races and horses. York 3.35 Society Red already backed @ 12/1 and 14/1. Newm 4.45 Medieval ...........still pondering Going and as yet an unknown price but ample time remains to get these sorted for or against.
Chesham but if your temperament triggers habitual ultra cautious tendency's you may end up backing nothing which means you will not be a losing punter and how many can honestly claim this. Have i just found and worse still shared the missing link. ? Ps : My temperament gets sorted via a swear box which over the course of a years betting is on a very good earn......... F*** It.Prior to reading VDWs five point plan (with the Hard work bit being the only aspect i understood then and now ) i had my own six pointer Class Weight Fitness - Dist Course Going. Forty years on and i still use and prefer mine.
Mine does not enable profitable after timing but this aspect remains a work in progress. If only i could learn to "read" what i have said.!
mjay Re your above it has the makings of a PSP Positive Starting Point and these are helpful (mine being my own ratings) so best of with that, because imo its always preferable to spend your time attempting to learn more about less. ? I had ten races to work on a busy Fri but from these only 3 produced possible bets off ratings who then needed to be profiled. One of these was fairly easy to dismiss , so i had - have plenty of time to go in deep for 2 races and horses. York 3.35 Society Red already backed @ 12/1 and 14/1. Newm 4.45 Medieval ...........still pondering Going and as yet an unknown price but ample time remains to get these sorted for or against.
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Chesham
Sire
Hi
mick , I think the key part is “Manner of thinking or Behaving, or reacting characteristic of a particular individual.” It is this quality, that you have in abundance that enables you to have been so successful in being full time over many years and be able to sustain the psychological pressures.
Looking again at the Quote in Bold, I can see that the Blog Members although small in number by comparison to the overall Forum Membership all have the above way of working, each unique in their approach but consistent in not deviating from something that works for them. Always learning and being positive.
Most VDW followers think Temperament is the ability to resist betting, which as you rightly pointed out can lead to ultra cautiousness and missing out on maximising profits.
Lee said he could spell out how he operated VDW in a couple of Paragraphs, but that most would even then lack the temperament to be successful with it. I must say that looking at his method it does resemble work that Jock Bingham published “Trainers Track Tips”
mick , I think the key part is “Manner of thinking or Behaving, or reacting characteristic of a particular individual.” It is this quality, that you have in abundance that enables you to have been so successful in being full time over many years and be able to sustain the psychological pressures. Looking again at the Quote in Bold, I can see that the Blog Members although small in number by comparison to the overall Forum Membership all have the above way of working, each unique in their approach but consistent in not deviating from something that works for them. Always learning and being positive.
Most VDW followers think Temperament is the ability to resist betting, which as you rightly pointed out can lead to ultra cautiousness and missing out on maximising profits.
Lee said he could spell out how he operated VDW in a couple of Paragraphs, but that most would even then lack the temperament to be successful with it. I must say that looking at his method it does resemble work that Jock Bingham published “Trainers Track Tips”
mick
Sire
Good morning
Chesham Re your above my knowledge of Lee is limited and no disrespect intended but Re his comment my response would be who are you to assume failings in other peoples temperament prior to showing your two paragraph MO. VDW certainly talked the talk always via after timing which was and remains another negative "temperament" trait imo.
Chesham Re your above my knowledge of Lee is limited and no disrespect intended but Re his comment my response would be who are you to assume failings in other peoples temperament prior to showing your two paragraph MO. VDW certainly talked the talk always via after timing which was and remains another negative "temperament" trait imo.
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mjay
Gelding
mick thank you for your suggestion and generous use of your time as usual. Incidentally, I have just finished Lawrence Voegele's Professional Method of Winner Selection. It crumbled to dust as I turned every page. The book Horse Sense is literally (apart from the analysis section) the same. Even the race day anecdotes are the same.
formtheory
Stallion
mick
Sire
Cheers for the info
Incidentally, I have just finished Lawrence Voegele's Professional Method of Winner Selection. It crumbled to dust as I turned every page. The book Horse Sense is literally (apart from the analysis section) the same. Even the race day anecdotes are the same.
mjay i have not read the book but fair dues to Paul Major he gave credit to same for providing the inspiration to attempt his UK adaptation. My copy of Horse Sense also disintegrated from over use many years ago but perhaps more importantly some of the good sense it contained still remains in my bonce. 
arkle55
Sire
mick
Sire
Being an old git i still cannot get my head round book reading away from paper. Re betting how to or i did books i bought the Major one > 40yrs ago and it did prove helpful but i cannot say the same of any i have read since. Positive interactions with members of this forum will imo and experience provide a better learn.......perhaps i am being over cynical but i often wonder how many of these betting book writers are practicing what they preach (and sell) via risking significant amounts of there own money betting on horses.?
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mick
Sire
Also members are risking there own wedge.
mjay
Gelding
Finished 4th at 4/1, shortened in betting so maybe lack of fitness / age found him out.