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VDW VDW Tipping Thread

mick

Sire
Ran well but no well enough! One thing I'll say is I forgot about the 80% strike rate along time ago and am happy with a much lower strike rate and a profit!
This is well said because both the attraction and frustration came from the fact that his claimed results where almost to good with not all the horses he mentioned as good things or selections being short priced Favorites. Although as i recall he also said that anyone could achieve the same but i have yet to see it.

Fair dues to those who like yourself say i have not cracked it but do use some of the thinking to turn a profit, especially so when they then provide some pre race posting to confirm this. :)
 
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jm77

Filly
I think the time spent looking for a missing link etc,and trying to find what I thought were vdw type bets was a mistake on my part, especially the time that it eroded.

Agree with this. The belief is that once the key is found, you can pick the winner of every race.

The real key may be accepting that is impossible, and coming to terms with it. Knowing when to strike, even if that rarely.

I almost stopped completely, didn’t visit forums for a while as they clouded thinking, then stripped it right back back. Ended up wiping out an account which forced a rethink, then one day a free bet allowed a fresh start. Since then 19 out of 29 have landed, averaging one selection every 4 days.
 

mick

Sire
Which ever method we deploy making long term profits is a very difficult ask indeed the industry figs say that of the millions who try less than 3% will make any money in the longer term let alone a worthwhile earn. This is also evidenced by the exchange premium charge which they claim affects only 1.65 % of there many customers.

So perhaps we should all have the thought that not losing money could be seen as half the job. I often feel that the longer i have been involved in this game then the harder it becomes, and i suspect this might be because the more your knowledge of why horses win and lose races increases then so does your awareness of just what you are taking on. !

Having said that i am 50yrs in and still here so it cannot be all grief. :)
 
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mjay

Gelding
mick mick totally agree with your above. I am just slightly above break even for the last 2 months and personally see that as a win as I have been exploring quite a few new avenues. The elimination of losers and frivolous "fun" bets on days when nothing shows has been a bit of a personal triumph. All those £2 betfair dabbles soon add up over a month.
 

formtheory

Stallion
May be mad but I believe NAVAJO PASS will go well today.

Improved LTO in a higher class race, has won at around this trip at this level.

Donald Mcain has a good record at the course in the last five seasons, he has only sent 18 runners with 4 winners giving a 22% strike rate and a level stakes profit.

At 12/1 looks worthy of a bet.
 

Thomas

Filly
Newcastle 5 55 Purple Power

As a betting proposition it looks strong to me, from a vdw perspective, however, as Lee I think it was put it , when referring to one of his pre race selections"it's not quite the full ticket".

A lot of these get beat I wouldn't have stats, but this looks like one that should win, it has multiple entries as well, so it could be one to run up a sequence, coming from a shrewd stable.
 
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