I well remember the attention given to VDW years ago in the Raceform Update although I have never got caught up in the discussion and interpretation of his writing before today. Having seen this VDW board here and realising how many people still develop their punting methods using his wisdom made me think a little about my understanding of what he said all those years ago and the nature of racing at that time.
When you think about it, our friend VDW would have been in a world where anything called the internet probably sounded like an organisation James Bond would have to destroy. There was much less racing and winter would have had many weeks where no racing took place at all due to abandonments. What would VDW make of today's sport? AW racing on flat artificial surfaces, even in winter. Summer jumping, much lower and narrower weight ranges in flat handicaps, whip rules, no whip races and the ability to watch every race on TV? What would he think about punters laying horses to lose?
So much has changed yet much of what I think he was advising still makes reasoned sense.
As far as I recall VDW was basically recommending a focus on two things, namely a horse's "class" and "ability". He laboured the importance of establishing a "methodology" when punting but was at pains to distinguish this from systematic betting. I seem to remember he said something like he'd rather be able to question the sea conditions and how likely he was to survive before he followed a system that said he had to throw himself off Brighton Pier on any given day! In my opinion there isn't much to argue with about that.
While VDW would probably be shocked at the volume of racing now, and the questionable impact on quality that's resulted, I think he would also realise we have some amazing technology that allows us to filter through incredible amounts of data about races and horses incredibly quickly. Can you imagine having something like HRB to hand in VDW's day? You'd be complaining there wasn't enough racing!
I define "Class" simply as a measure of the quality of competition a horse faces compared to "Ability" which is the measure of the racing qualities possessed by an individual horse as displayed in its performances. I believe these two factors can be judged from logically compiled numerical ratings and leave the scope to ammend the conclusions based on your understanding of a specific days race conditions. But now I would also add another factor to the VDW mix which is the pace angle of races. Unfortunately, even in the UK today, pace is a tough ask to quantify and rate (although possible). In VDW's day I acknowledge it would have been near impossible.
I do also recall a lot of flowery language used by fans of VDW to explain some results and, just as we often hear a one paced animal using his stamina to close in on the lead during the final furlong described by the commentator as a "fast finisher", I recall hearing in VDW discussion that "some runners love running past beaten horses". Personally I'm not sure what any horse loves to do but I do know a fast early pace will likely cause the speedier animals problems in the closing stages allowing the slower, stamina laden competitors to possibly overhaul them. I guess we all have our likes and dislikes in life and constantly trying to place human characteristics on animals is one of my pet hates in life!
Anyway, while the writings of VDW may seem a little old fashioned in style now, I believe his advice to build a methodology underpinned by class and ability ratings is just as valid today as it has ever been. All that has changed is the actual racing we have to work with and the tools we have to create and store ratings to help reach those judgements.
When you think about it, our friend VDW would have been in a world where anything called the internet probably sounded like an organisation James Bond would have to destroy. There was much less racing and winter would have had many weeks where no racing took place at all due to abandonments. What would VDW make of today's sport? AW racing on flat artificial surfaces, even in winter. Summer jumping, much lower and narrower weight ranges in flat handicaps, whip rules, no whip races and the ability to watch every race on TV? What would he think about punters laying horses to lose?
So much has changed yet much of what I think he was advising still makes reasoned sense.
As far as I recall VDW was basically recommending a focus on two things, namely a horse's "class" and "ability". He laboured the importance of establishing a "methodology" when punting but was at pains to distinguish this from systematic betting. I seem to remember he said something like he'd rather be able to question the sea conditions and how likely he was to survive before he followed a system that said he had to throw himself off Brighton Pier on any given day! In my opinion there isn't much to argue with about that.
While VDW would probably be shocked at the volume of racing now, and the questionable impact on quality that's resulted, I think he would also realise we have some amazing technology that allows us to filter through incredible amounts of data about races and horses incredibly quickly. Can you imagine having something like HRB to hand in VDW's day? You'd be complaining there wasn't enough racing!
I define "Class" simply as a measure of the quality of competition a horse faces compared to "Ability" which is the measure of the racing qualities possessed by an individual horse as displayed in its performances. I believe these two factors can be judged from logically compiled numerical ratings and leave the scope to ammend the conclusions based on your understanding of a specific days race conditions. But now I would also add another factor to the VDW mix which is the pace angle of races. Unfortunately, even in the UK today, pace is a tough ask to quantify and rate (although possible). In VDW's day I acknowledge it would have been near impossible.
I do also recall a lot of flowery language used by fans of VDW to explain some results and, just as we often hear a one paced animal using his stamina to close in on the lead during the final furlong described by the commentator as a "fast finisher", I recall hearing in VDW discussion that "some runners love running past beaten horses". Personally I'm not sure what any horse loves to do but I do know a fast early pace will likely cause the speedier animals problems in the closing stages allowing the slower, stamina laden competitors to possibly overhaul them. I guess we all have our likes and dislikes in life and constantly trying to place human characteristics on animals is one of my pet hates in life!
Anyway, while the writings of VDW may seem a little old fashioned in style now, I believe his advice to build a methodology underpinned by class and ability ratings is just as valid today as it has ever been. All that has changed is the actual racing we have to work with and the tools we have to create and store ratings to help reach those judgements.