All credit to Black Cat who wrote what I post below and to Kimmypops for maintaining the information.
FLASH IN THE PAN
The Thirteen Factors
Although largely a system, some flexibility and thought is allowed!!
1. Forecast: Fav in the betting forecast and live market
2. Class: Top RPM
3. Prize money: LTO must be same or higher than TTO.
4. Days: I look for a horse running within 30 days. (But be a little flexible - keep in mind that some horses do go well after a break, so look for what is there in their past form to confirm this. Also, better class horses won't always have opportunities within 30 days).
5. Consistency: One win and one place, (or better), in its previous three runs. One of those placings should have occurred on its last outing. If beaten LTO, it should be within 2L (flat) or 5L (NH) of the winner.
6. Two Furlongs: VDW says look for horses making a fight of it in the last 1 or 2 furlongs during its last 2 or 3 races. Usually no problem with this, using my consistency assessment. But there are instances where it helps – for example, where the horse won so easily LTO that there was no test - is this then one to exclude).
7. Weight: I do not like to see a horse going up by more than 10-12 lbs from LTO. (I use 12 for the system). I do not like to see it giving weight away to horses that have shown recent good form. When I am feeling extra keen, I use the weights LTO and TTO of both horses, in conjunction the with RPMs of both horses to try and ensure they are roughly “level” in weight rises compared to their respective RPM rises from LTO.
8. Going: The horse should have proved somewhere in its history that it can carry the weight in today’s class of race and going.
9. Distance: Is the horse proven at today’s specific distance and at the same class?
10. Jockey: I want an in-form Jockey. I want a proven Jockey. The ‘worse’ the Jockey is, the better the horse must be (relative to its rivals) to compensate. Racing Post has a wonderful statistics thing on its web site.
11. Trainer: I look for is a trainer that has a reasonable strike rate over the current and previous season. By the other factors, we should already know the trainers intention: he has a fit horse, an in form horse, and a horse that is fancied to have a realistic chance of winning.
12. Runners: Max flat = 16
(I used to have a table that went something like this. Don't know if I used it for Flash)
5f-6f 10
7f 11
8f 12
9f 13
10f 14
11f 15
12f-14f 16
13. No 2 y.o races. No NH bumpers. (I also would sometimes exclude 5f & 6f sprints, but can't remember if I did that when doing this particular Flash test). And be very wary of races where there are horses with no form or no UK form.
FLASH IN THE PAN TWO
For the ˜Flash-in-the-Pan' system, I don't necessarily use the factors in the way described. I have developed quick ways of doing certain things because of time restraints. Nevertheless, each of the factors is accounted for – there is a 13 factor assessment done before the money is placed.
1. Forecast: Position in the betting forecast.
2. Class: VDW gave an ability rating, but suggested that this should be backed up using two further ratings. This class assessment method is not relied on solely, it must be backed up with other ratings which also indicate that the selection is the ˜class' horse. (I use RPM and have begun to add an assessment based on Topspeed, as recommended by Swish).
3. Class TTO compared with LTO compared with the others in the field. This is NOT the same as point 2. A horse may have better overall class rating. But due to whatever circumstances, has been racing against lower class animals recently. (No good).
4. Days: I look for a horse running within 30 days. (But keep in mind that some horses do go well after a break, so look for what is there in their past form to confirm this).
5. Consistency: You all know what was written by VDW concerning consistency. For my system, I like a horse to have one win and one place, (or better), in its previous three runs. One of those placings should have occurred on its last outing. If beaten LTO, it should be within 2L (flat) or 5L (NH) of the winner.
6. Two Furlongs: VDW says look for horses making a fight of it in the last 1 or 2 furlongs during its last 2 or 3 races. (Usually no problem with this using my consistency assessment, but there are instances where it helps – for example, where the horse won so easily LTO that there was no test).
7. Weight: Weight is a great leveller, he writes. I do not like to see a horse going up by more than 10-12 lbs from LTO. (I use 12 for the system). I do not like to see it giving weight away to horses that have shown recent good form. When I am feeling extra keen, I use the weights LTO and TTO of both horses, in conjunction the with RPMs of both horses to try and ensure they are roughly "level" in weight rises compared to their respective RPM rises from LTO.
8. Going: The horse should have proved somewhere in its history that it can carry the weight in today's class of race and going.
9. Distance: Is the horse proven at today's specific distance (and at the same class).
10. Jockey: I want an in-form Jockey. I want a proven Jockey. The ˜worse' the Jockey is, the better the horse must be (relative to its rivals) to compensate. Racing Post has a wonderful statistics thing on its web site).
11. Trainer: I look for is a trainer that has a reasonable strike rate over the current and previous season. By the other factors, we should already know the trainers intention: he has a fit horse, an in form horse, and a horse that is fancied by the media to have a realistic chance of winning.
12. Race assessment: You have looked at the best races, and have a selection shortlist based on class and consistency. You are happy it can carry the weight and will go on the going. And the Jockeys no mug. I now go through each horse previous three races in the RP to see how they have been performing, and write a little summary on each. At the end of that, it will either confirm my selection(s) for the race, or it will throw up some concerns, which will lead to a no bet race. E.g. the up-to-now sure thing was recently beaten by another contender!
13. Odds: What is ˜value' in your book? Only you can answer. I have a price I don't go below. (I also have been experimenting with a simple way of assessing odds. Not very scientific, and I'm not even sure worthwhile at the moment).
And the fourteenth factor if you like, that I don't use in my system, but would use if I were "doing it properly"...
14. Type of Race: VDW says keep to the best (highest value) races of each meeting, best two at main meeting. Again, I would have to say this is simplistic and for the novice. These are races where the horses would be deemed to all be ˜trying' to win. The other point is that ˜good' horses, consistent types will more likely be found among the better races. So, how low do you go? When putting up a "VDW" race, I think you would have to keep within those parameters the maestro set. But you may consider that any race worth say £10K or £20K or whatever will contain triers among the main protagonists.
Hope this helps Arkle