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VDW.... How to Find the Solution.

Chesham

Sire
Good to read that your health has improved @Bobajobber, sorry about your dad not being in the best of health. From my understanding it was Barney (I was not on any Forums that he was part of) who said that he had worked out the one set of Ratings, but so did Keith Head who had a letter published in the RF Update, but of course he was using Weights Right. I think the two of them did correspond on the old Gummy Forum, so perhaps Barney was using that too

Well done with working out the Ratings that appeared next to the Old Fellow and SIAO Examples, VDW said he had been offered thousands for them back then.
 

Chesham

Sire
Hi Chesham you can check with bobajobber regarding pms although. I do not know the secrets to van der wheils methods but I have never made sarcastic comments about any other members if it was made in jest I fully take on board Chesham along with boajobbers comments on not being the oracle on vdw methods don't all gang up on me lol
Hi @nagwa it was in jest and you have in the past under a different name on a different forum, inundated my email box with a continuous supply of questions regarding VDW, so it was tongue in cheek that I could imagine you being first off the rank to PM Boba.

You should be the VDW Oracle by now as I think Boba, a past email chum of mine and myself have helped you over the years.
 

nagwa

Colt
Thanks Chesham ..yea thanks for your help. With vdw methods. And sharing your racing expertise I agree I should be more au fait with the methods but still not fully understandings the vdw. Thanks
 

Bobajobber

Gelding
@dicko14 nice to see you again Dave, hope your well.

@Chesham never thought I would get to the finish line, but you should remember the conversation we had about '2+2 will equal 5 and not 4 as it should' and be assured that this is the way to go, ratings should be used as a guide, interesting the first page of Betting The VDW Way tells exactly what the method is
 

Bobajobber

Gelding
Apologies, if this all sounds 'cloak and daggerish' , its not meant to, I am clearly not going to spell it out, but there are obvious pointers to anyone with an interest in VDW in the few posts I have written.
I will though at some stage offer up the ratings for scrutiny at a later date.
 

jm77

Filly
Lingfield 3.10 - Fleur De Lys Listed Fillies

Anyone have a view on this race?

Mise En Rose the favourite as a 3yo, coming up from 6f. Does she get the mile? Although back on AW so maybe a little easier.

Muffri'Ha the one of interest. Dropping from winning a G3 LTO, all the others look like handicappers. Clear top on two form ratings, highest class LTO, up there on speed.

Second on ability rating, with only Volunteer Point close on that score. VP "running like a donkey"?

LTO form of M'H reads pretty well (although maybe not G3 level, but still a decent Lst level).

Question over this being on AW, but sire record doesn't look too bad. Nothing particularly negative in the trainer record either.

Can't quite bring myself to back her, but interesting.
 
Hi all!

Fancying BAYDAR to win stepping up in class tomorrow.

Ultra consistent, done everything he could possibly do.

Improving leaps and bounds, gets in with the bonus of WFA so receives weight all round.

Trainer has mentioned that the owner does not like handicaps and only will use them as stepping stones towards stakes races.

Tomorrow looks a good target.

11/4 B.O.G win.
 

jm77

Filly
Baydar came out well for me aswell.

Good (if limited) record of LTO hcp winners.

However, trainer record does it for me:
Class 1, LTO Handicap:
2/22 (9%, 18% lower than expected)

Those with 3 career runs are 2 from 3.

The rest 0 from 19, 2 placed (expected at least 2 winners).
 
Hi @Chesham!

Looking over the opposition I do not feel they are very strong.

Ayrad: 5 year old 17 runs, 3 wins
Class 30 (maiden)

Class 290 (listed) Beating Rawaki, whose best wins were two class 120's.

Class 200 beating Spark Plug over 10F, and Spark plug not in great form at the time. Up to that point had won 3 races, with the best prize class 240 at 8F.

I feel Ayrad may be better over further, and he gives Baydar 8lbs.

The others are only really handicappers so I think Baydar will go well.
 

jm77

Filly
Interesting to note they choose this race over a 12f Listed one at Kempton on Wednesday.

Latharnach in the 4.40 comes out well clear for me, but another one to watch.
 
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Chesham

Sire
Hi @Chesham!

Looking over the opposition I do not feel they are very strong.

Ayrad: 5 year old 17 runs, 3 wins
Class 30 (maiden)

Class 290 (listed) Beating Rawaki, whose best wins were two class 120's.

Class 200 beating Spark Plug over 10F, and Spark plug not in great form at the time. Up to that point had won 3 races, with the best prize class 240 at 8F.

I feel Ayrad may be better over further, and he gives Baydar 8lbs.

The others are only really handicappers so I think Baydar will go well.
I thought he was a stand out LTO (Handicap), especially as I mentioned in my analysis that the Trainer had a job to persuade the owner to let him run in a handicap.

The Trainer of Baydar has said that he will run Baydar at Kempton if the Ground is too firm
 

jm77

Filly
Owners record with 3yo in handicaps over last 5 years (per RP stats) 10 from 31.

Having said that, over a third of his runners over the period have been in handicaps
 

Chesham

Sire
The Stewards considered the running of BAYDAR, ridden by Josephine Gordon and trained by Hugo Palmer, which started favourite and finished unplaced. The Stewards noted the trainer’s explanation that in his opinion the colt was feeling the effects of a long season. The Veterinary Officer reported that a post- race examination of the colt during routine testing failed to reveal any abnormalities.
 

jm77

Filly
ST and TYM top two for me aswell.

Both ran in the same races the last twice, TYM doing the better both times as expected.

Nicholls expecting ST to be better this season.

Record of LTO from graded races is poor, so one I'm leaving.
 
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