VDW Van Der Speil

[JMCM]

I meant to say the three important things were: money management, discipline and record-keeping.

Staking plans are like a pair of shoes, you have to try a few before you can find comfort in them, whatever shoes I like, may not be the shoes that anybody else feels comfortable with, our selection base can have a big impact on what type of shoes we are prepared to wear, but it is obvious we all have a pair that suits us.
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For VDW, I believe he is just hammering home that you have to be disciplined, all of the components and how they go together tell you that this chap was thorough.

Going back to Little Owl and his race, it is easy to see why VDW favoured Little Owl over Wayward Lad when you observe the class of the field.

Little Owl

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Wayward Lad

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Thank you, Bobajobber. It was worth joining the forum just to read this article. Amazing what you can see when things are presented in their simplest form. Cheers.

 

[Tufnel]

ArkRoyal

Hello Kev,

Chugging along and you?

No I am saying the original ratings as shown in the letter 'Narrow The Field To Gain A Winning Strip' AKA ERIN numbers are a rating based on all of the elements of consistency, so two sets of odds and 1 set of form as I originally pointed out.
VDW did not want to flaunt it to early, so if you are spelling it out piece by piece, then you would offer up in digestable chunks over a time, this ERIN number is never used in its rating as first thought, it consists of the elements needed to get to the next place, they need to be broken up/separated.
As you know, I had the 2nd numerical form in the Erin rating, why would I use it twice to confirm the 2nd numerical form, it took some unravelling, but it always bothered me.
"Once you see it , you will wonder how on earth you could of missed it, then you will have the same horses as myself"
This line is shouting out that it is something visual, it is believe me.

Are you saying that the combined sets of figures VDW offered up in his reply Methodmaker are 3 representative elements of a horse's last 3 races, such as it's placing, it's position in the market and the position of the winner in the market?

So Prominent King's would be (3rd last race from left)
4-2-2
5-3-2
7-5-1
Beacon Light
1-1-2
2-1-1
2-1-2
Mr Kildare
1-1
1-1
1-1
Decent Fellow
3-1-3
1-1-3
3-1-1
Monksfield
3-3-6
3-1-4
1-3-5

I've laid them out like that in an attempt to make it more of a visual picture, as you suggested it is.

I'm thinking that VDW suggested looking at several horses who ran 2nd such as Weth Nan to Derrylin and Spartan Missile to Strombolus so as to see how their last 3 placings picture looked.

Spartan Missile (bypassing his Fall when odds on LTO)
1-1-1
1-1-1
1-1-1
Strombolus (bypassing his fall in the Sun Alliance Novice chase when 12/1)
1-1-1
1-1-1
1-1-1
Weth Nan
1-1-1
1-1-1
1-1-1
Derrylin
1-1-1
1-1-2
1-1-2

There's various ways to get the Erin figures as printed in the letter, but it struck me that as you were saying the figure is never used as presented and consisted of elements that needed to be broken up to get to the next place, that perhaps it is more useful to break them up and look at them laid out as above, to see at a glance the form, the market position and the market position of the winner, rather than just a number that could have been reached in various ways.

I think it's interesting that only Prominent Kings last run shows any significant improvement in the figures from previous runs. Mr Kildare's stayed the same, Beacon Light's slipped a bit and Decent Fellow and Monksfied's very much went the wrong way.