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VDW Van Der Speil

formtheory said:
Cheers for the above Bob, I had not yet looked at the form of the other horses in the race fully.
Click to expand...

formtheory formtheory
My argument would be, why did you cast an opinion about the horse, if you do not have all the information in front of you?. Glancing over the form book will not show the answers, it has to be laid out so you can see everyone involved.

I suspect everyone following VDW believe the same pictures pop up in every selection, surely that would be systematic.
 
It was a quick look at the horse when Jackform posted.

I said I would need to look at all the form and would be something to do in the future.
 
Boba,
I was thinking along the lines of being a form horse. VDW mentioned both Lucky Vane and Burrough Hill Lad as being "not form horses".
He says it is the class/form horse which should be selected. I can't figure out why Mark Of Esteem would be regarded as a form horse.
Can you please tell me what the following column headers mean DSLR, LCR1&2, TS1&2.

Thanks in advance
regards
nellsman.
 
Hi Nellsman!

I might be wrong but Mark Of Esteem was a horse I looked at and when you compare the class/form of the runners in the race he was beaten to the race he won on his LTO race it was much tougher. So being beaten was not really a negative.

That's my thoughts anyway.
 
Looking at Bobajobber Bobajobber above i would be interested to know the significance of the green marker used in two of the columns ,and i note the trainer- jockey are shown what use is made of this info as part of the whole.?
 
LTO Race, the winner had won a F maiden and was Fav (Key)

Bowden Rose just ahead of Whittle Rock had won next time out when dropped in class

LTO Form
WHITTLE ROCK , who left Eric Alston after her latest start, ran an eye-catching race for her new stable, running on steadily to be nearest finish after having been set plenty to do; she's better than this form.

Dropped in Class
 
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mick said:
Looking at Bobajobber Bobajobber above i would be interested to know the significance of the green marker used in two of the columns ,and i note the trainer- jockey are shown what use is made of this info as part of the whole.?
Click to expand...
mick mick
There is no significance in the green ticks, when you automate information, sometimes depending on what format the row or column is, will return a green flag, the reason you can see cells in the column with no flag, is because I have manually entered the info, basically I have overwritten an existing sheet
 
remember mg of kent also gave examples based on gr letter will try and find article
 
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Nellsman said:
Boba,
I was thinking along the lines of being a form horse. VDW mentioned both Lucky Vane and Burrough Hill Lad as being "not form horses".
He says it is the class/form horse which should be selected. I can't figure out why Mark Of Esteem would be regarded as a form horse.
Can you please tell me what the following column headers mean DSLR, LCR1&2, TS1&2.

Thanks in advance
regards
nellsman.
Click to expand...

Nellsman Nellsman
ArkRoyal ArkRoyal was correct with my field names.

In Mark Of Esteem's LTO race he was not the Class/Form horse, Oliver Peslier rides this time, I cannot find Frankie so assuming he was on a ban, but if you look at the previous race in the 2000 Guineas, the winning VDW race (Tripleprint Celebration Mile) and then later in the Queen Elizabetth II Stakes at Ascot, in all his big wins, MOE is covered up on the inside, look at his LTO race, you will find the horse is not covered up and the and on the outside losing ground, he got a speed rating of 82, which is a little deceiving, you can see the horse was not put into the race.

St James Palace

2000 Guineas

Tripleprint Celebration Mile

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

There are positives inside the LTO that are brought forward, just like Roushayd, but Mark Of Esteem was miles clear on class in respect to the rest of the field in the Tripleprint.
There is valid reasons for Lucky Vane and Burrough Hill Lad, it is no surprise that both horses were favourites LTO

The VDW method is more than just a number or sets of numbers, there is common sense
 
ArkRoyal thanks for the field names.

Boba,
I've watched the videos several times and I can see what you mean, I hadn't picked up before that Peslier was riding, which as you infer
may well have been a negative. However beaten LTO by twelve lengths in a mile race with both speed ratings and RP ratings showing
a very large downturn is a lot to forgive. I can't recall any VDW selection with a similar profile. I also noted That Spinning World ran below his previous form
in the Ascot race and subsequently won a Deauville Group1 Ten days before MOE won the Goodwood race. Was there something about this race which did not favour
either MOS or SW? If there was I can't see it
You say that there are positives in the LTO race that are brought forward. I can't see any. MOE finished half a length in front of a horse priced at 100/1.
I remember VDW's remark that Bishop's Yarn ( beaten 15 lengths in a 21 furlong chase) only managed to hold off Golden Friend by half a length and the inference was that this form was no good. For me it would be a massive leap to make MOE a form horse given his last run.
Maybe there will be parallels with this years horse, Churchill (who also seemed not to be put in the race LTO) There are similarities and it will be interesting as to where he is next placed.

Thanks and regards
nellsman.
 
Nellsman Nellsman
Its true we have the benefit of the video's, when really are eyes are the formbook, when a horse wins a high class race like the the 2000 Guineas in the fashion he did, we need to consider carefully what is happening to the horse next, if we consider VDW class of race like he showed us, it would appear that MOE was dropped a long way down in class and is the Class/Form horse
There is a similar case with Workforce, who wins the Derby and goes to Ascot as the hotpot and gets beat by the unbeaten stablemate Harbinger, Workforce next race the Arc De Triomphe and wins well.
In regard to Churchill, surely you should be looking at Barney Roy today and seeing how he performs?.
 
Nellsman said:
ArkRoyal thanks for the field names.

Boba,
I've watched the videos several times and I can see what you mean, I hadn't picked up before that Peslier was riding, which as you infer
may well have been a negative. However beaten LTO by twelve lengths in a mile race with both speed ratings and RP ratings showing
a very large downturn is a lot to forgive. I can't recall any VDW selection with a similar profile. I also noted That Spinning World ran below his previous form
in the Ascot race and subsequently won a Deauville Group1 Ten days before MOE won the Goodwood race. Was there something about this race which did not favour
either MOS or SW? If there was I can't see it
You say that there are positives in the LTO race that are brought forward. I can't see any. MOE finished half a length in front of a horse priced at 100/1.
I remember VDW's remark that Bishop's Yarn ( beaten 15 lengths in a 21 furlong chase) only managed to hold off Golden Friend by half a length and the inference was that this form was no good. For me it would be a massive leap to make MOE a form horse given his last run.
Maybe there will be parallels with this years horse, Churchill (who also seemed not to be put in the race LTO) There are similarities and it will be interesting as to where he is next placed.

Thanks and regards
nellsman.
Click to expand...

MOE was due to run in the Derby, but had been running a temperature so never took up that engagement. Was also suffering at Ascot and not right. Having said that you would need to have stable information as to his well being before backing him in the race that GR claimed. Personally I think it was another after time based on past form to fit the picture
 
I have never read the form on his latests methods like in these ones and Roushayd, but he seemed to gain more knowledge after his two year break as he called it. Before that i dont think anyone could make head nor tail of it all and also their were loads of contridictions in his first ideas as well.

So i think it is to best look at the form of these ones in a new light if you have the books, i never purchased any of them myself and never realised G. R. Lincolnsire was him at the time either.

I know with my methods sometimes if a sudden dip in form appeared, i would sometimes use the betting as a guide which he may of done with this one, because he had spotted these illusions, with me most times it was the going, course, jockey, weight or doc, that had caused the illusions in the form though.

But i would not spend to much time on it all though because he could of done as Chesham Chesham has stated, because why all the changes in names plus form reading is not as consistent as back then either for me at least.
 
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Chesham said:
MOE was due to run in the Derby, but had been running a temperature so never took up that engagement. Was also suffering at Ascot and not right. Having said that you would need to have stable information as to his well being before backing him in the race that GR claimed. Personally I think it was another after time based on past form to fit the picture
Click to expand...

Chesham Chesham
I cannot ever remember VDW saying you would need stable information for his method, so would scoff you remark. considering you are quick enough to point out to others what VDW would of said or done in other circumstances.

I have removed your post on Ulysees because it is not inkeeping with my blog (but well done), there is a thread available if you wanted to offer up a selection and you know this.
 
Nellsman said:
I remember VDW's remark that Bishop's Yarn ( beaten 15 lengths in a 21 furlong chase) only managed to hold off Golden Friend by half a length and the inference was that this form was no good. For me it would be a massive leap to make MOE a form horse given his last run.
Click to expand...

Nellsman Nellsman
I am not sure what you are saying in this sentence compares to MOE LTO race, the horses involved with your remark are horses who are older, who are exposed, I also believed that VDW is pointing out the fact that you should be aware of what other horses are involved in the field, Sunset Christo and Silver Buck, Another Captain.
The fact that we are told the horse was due to run in the Derby makes no difference, the horse never par took in anywhere near the distance of the Derby, EVER, so was never aimed for middle races, remembering that horses are entered at a very early age before the trainer ever knows what the horse can acheive at all.

I am not totally sure about your question about Spinning World, the horse had not run in the UK, I think he needed some give in the ground, where as Bijou D'Inde liked the firmer ground.
My argument about being able to forgive a horse with a poor SR and RPR, would you really believe that MOE's win in the 2000 Guineas was pure luck, because that is what you are suggesting.
 
Formtheory,
apologies are due for missing your earlier post. I fully understand what you are saying in regard to the class, but VDW said it was the
class/form horse who should have our attention. I cannot make MOE a form horse whichever way I look at it. This selection gives me a lot of trouble
and I just can't figure it out as being a VDW selection.
regards
nellsman
 
Boba,
no I don't think that MOE's win in the guineas was a fluke. I think with hindsight we can all see that he won on merit. My problem is
that the run subsequent to the Guineas was very poor. Is there any way that it can be excused? I am aware that VDW excused horse who were
put into a race where they had no chance (class wise), but this was not the case with MOE. He was second favourite in a field of nine and finished
eighth beating the 100/1 outsider by half a length. I don't think that there is any other VDW example of a horse being forgiven in such circumstances.
It's a long time ago and I don't remember the circumstances surrounding the race. Maybe VDW realised that the horse had problems (as Chesham pointed out).
And in this situation was willing to forgive his poor run and given the class of the field in the Goodwood race make him a selection. I can see the logic of your argument.
My problem is I just can't square the circle and make him a form horse.
In regard to Churchill, I think that we can say he was beaten by a very good horse in the shape of Barney Roy.

regards
nellsman
 
Nellsman Nellsman
When G Hall was burning the midnight oil, he certainly was not looking at the stable information along with the race form for him to spot the 'key'.

I am guessing you may of made EKBALCO a non-form horse as well, when finishing down the field last time out as a 3rd favourite and beaten by the 6th favourite, but thats another story.

I concede and hope you find the answer in time.
 
Hi @Bobajobber,
Boba I completely forgot Ekbalco. I remember years ago this horse being discussed on another forum and no one knew the answer to that one either.
And yes everyone made him a non form horse. I don't remember anyone getting to the bottom of it.I think it was trained by D. Elsworth and this trainer was well known for having a gamble. Boba are you teasing me ? Or are you actually saying that both MOE and Ekbalco's LTO run were actually not considered non form runs or could be excused for some reason that I am not aware of.

Thanks and regards
nellsman.
 
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