• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Value Place odds on Exchange

P

PHS

Stallion
When looking at odds in bigger field handicaps, it seems to me that there is often tremendous value in the 3 place market compared to the 4 place market.

For example, today I was trying to get on Classic (14:05 Sandown) in the win market. It was trading around 36 this morning, then it just kept getting backed, to the point where it was virtually the same price on BF as with some Books, around 20/1, so I ended up backing it at 16/1 3pl Cover with B365. After the race, I still had the BF screen open and was amazed that I could have had 6/1 in the BF 3 place market.

Similarly, in the York 16:45, although I didn't back it, just before the off Pisanello piqued my interest when I saw it was around 7 in the 3 place market. The BFSP was 7.47 compared to 5.00 for 4 places. To me, that's a big difference for one place less.

Any opinions/observations on this?
 
In that 16:45

Zozimus 4.11 3TBP, 3.11 4TBP

1pt or 32.15% less for 1 place less!

OK, so the 3.11 was a winner while the 4.11 was a loser, I know.
 
P PHS

Forgetting the result, surely at the odds you record, 4 to place was the "bargain buy". By taking the 3.11 rather than the 4.11, one would have increased one's chance of success by 33.3% for a 24.3% reduction in potential winnings.
 
JennyK said:
P PHS

Forgetting the result, surely at the odds you record, 4 to place was the "bargain buy". By taking the 3.11 rather than the 4.11, one would have increased one's chance of success by 33.3% for a 24.3% reduction in potential winnings.
Click to expand...
Not ignoring you JennyK JennyK , was just hoping someone would come along and confirm this is correct. It doesn't seem to take into account the number of runners in the race. You're saying that opting for 4 places instead of 3 places increases your chance of success by 33%. Does it (anyone)?

Then there's the question of whether a 24.3% reduction in winnings gives the correct price for getting 4 places. I might understand that better once I've read Chesham Chesham 's links (or I still might not :) ).
 
Hi P PHS

The tool was written by a Maths professor. The Harvard method only works out places to 3. He devised his own formula that worked outm4 places (You just change the Place Box.) You can change how much value you wish to achieve.

The original tool downloaded the BF win odds directly in the Tool. If the BF Book is nearly 100% then the win odds are accurate and can be used by the formula to work out true place odds. The Lay place odds are often out in favour of the backer. (Dr Z wrote about this )

The maths boffin also wrote a tool for me to convert Tony Drapkin Hoof odds to load into the Tool by using a txt file
 
P PHS

I'm no mathematician and usually only bet in the place market as a safety net on a bet I expect to win.

One I am interested in today is Looking For Lynda in the 5.45 Thirsk. A few minutes ago, the place options on Betfair were:

3 places 3.50, so (ignoring commission) potentially £250 profit from £100 staked.

4 places 2.72, on the same basis £172 profit

5 places 2.10, .... £110 profit.

Assuming £100 to win, any of those bets would cover the loss if the horse were to finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

As regards "best buy", from my point of view by going for 4 places rather than 3, I'd be increasing my chance by 33.3% but would lose 31.2% of the maximum profit from a place bet.

Going for 5 places would increase the chance of success by 66.7% at a potential cost against maximum profit of 56%.

It therefore seems to me that, given my aim, the 5 place option would be the "best buy" as the additional 2 places is proportionately more than the loss of profit against the maximum possible.

If I was trying to make money betting place only, I'd have thought that was still the case, irrespective of number of runners, though clearly the more runners the more scope for not being in the first 3, 4 or 5.
 
JennyK said:
P PHS

Forgetting the result, surely at the odds you record, 4 to place was the "bargain buy". By taking the 3.11 rather than the 4.11, one would have increased one's chance of success by 33.3% for a 24.3% reduction in potential winnings.
Click to expand...
Ah! Your including the stake there, so those percentages are not correct (for decimal odds)

4.11-3.11 = 1, then divide by 4.11 = your 24.3%

It should be 3.11-2.11 = 1 divide by 3.11 = 32.15%
 
Hi,

Doing it the same way as the Looking For Lynda example:

3 places, 4.11, with £100 staked would generate £311 profit less commission
4 places, 3.11, with £100 staked would generate £211 profit ...

So for the additional place (which I see as 33.3% extra chance of a return) one "pays" a notional £100, or 100/311 x 100, equals 32.2% of the maximum available profit from a place bet (£311), so yes, a calculation error on my part first time around. Not a lot to choose between the two options at those prices.
 
I Have fed BF win odds into the Place tool . We know that the BF over Round was 98.8%!and as near to True win odds as you can get

The tool produces True Place odds

I have loaded the race in finishing order

The total stake is £100

Place tool set to 4

The True Place Odds are in Column I
Column G is the Value odds if set to 5% in your favour, you change that in A16ifmfor,example,you wanted 10% in your favour as being value against True Place odds

Tomorrow the returned BF Place odds should be available to see which of the Runners were giving place Value

IMG_1390.jpeg
 
From the True Place odds above and using the 5% value compared to the
true odds

Winner Back if 2.30

Returned place odds 2.35

2nd Back if 3.29
Returned Place Odds 3.3

3rd Back if 3.09

Returned 3.33

4th Back if 1.73

Returned 1.95


Poor odds for the 5th

Back if 6.45
Returned 5.3
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: PHS
Chesham said:
Place Tool

https://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/place-tool.47819/post-185949
Click to expand...
Used this tonight to try and get on Havanarama. Asked for 2.24 but it never got there, so I I had the win bet on (5/1). Beaten a nose.

The sheet said 2.11 about 5mins before the off but Hava must've got backed in as went off at 2.00 and 4/1.

I looked at 2pl saver earlier in the day but the best offer was 7/2 which seemed a bit short for a 5/1 shot, but maybe not with only 7 runners.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top