• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Value calculator

hedgehog

hedgehog

Dam
I recently was looking through the web and came across the value calculator by rob mull on the olbg blogs. It is based on the rp postdata ticks only with 1 tick equal to 2 points, 2 ticks 3 points and 3 ticks 4 points. You then multiply all the points for a horse together to get its score. The scores are then added together and each score is divided by the sum of scores to get a probability which is compared to the current odds which themselves have been converted to probabilities. The bets are were the horse probability is bigger than the odds probability.

Has anyone come across this before? And if so have you had any success with it? I'm interested in using a modified version to help me work out which of my qualifiers are value.

Thanks in advance
 
Hi Hedgehog

Yes I use the value calculator a lot to check the odds in the market. It’s quite clever the way it highlights the bets from the post data table so there is logic behind the calculations.

I also work it to a 90% figure rather than the straight 100% so it allows for a little leeway.

Rob is a nice guy and he talked me through it all when I started to use the calculation so if you need any help just shout and I will try my best to help!

Smithy
 
I would suggest its a given that any backer who achieves long term profits is also obtaining value as part of,but as with all aspects of this business individual interpretations will vary.Personally i could not embrace the concept of backing horse B because i feel its price is good value when i think that A whose price is not should win the race,but i understand that some do make it pay via this MO and this is all that matters.Given this circumstance i would just swerve the intended bet on A.

My own use of value is that once i have identified the horse i wish to back i then create what i call a MAP Minimum Acceptable Price and will only bet if this or higher is available.It would prove difficult to describe how i go about this in a way which would enable others to emulate exactly because every race is a one off.But the basics are i consider the strengths and needs in my selection and then compare via doing the same in the opposition.

I am not seeking to create a tissue pricing up each runner but only attempting to establish a fair and value price for the horse i am interested in backing.Being very disciplined in following this can of course on occasions prove frustrating as i end up swerving what proves to be a winner,but these are always the ones we recall and swear about,as opposed to the more frequent occasions when the swerve proves correct.

I back plenty of losers which is a sod but seen as part of the price,but i never back a poor value loser and this helps. This might sound like a contradictory statement but racing is full of those,and following this MO does work for myself. :)

For anyone who wishes to investigate the concept i can offer a simple way to start,i used this myself years ago but then progressed to preferring my own judgement.Once you have your horse of interest use the avg price of the two fc prices offered by the RP and SL betting fc,as your MAP or at least as the starting point to arrive at same.
 
Last edited:
Value is a subject I’ve seen cause a lot of ‘debate’ over the years lol.

Personally I see the bottom line and making a profit as the only true measure of obtaining ‘value’, other than that it’s subjective opinion even if you’re creating your own tissue etc.

Someone might be picking lots of 10/1 shots and think when placing the bets they’re great value but if the strike rate at that price actually only ends up being 5% then they’re can’t be because they’ve made a loss and ergo their chance of winning was much less than they thought.
But if their strike rate is 50% and avg winning odds is 11/10 then they’re getting ‘value’.

However that’s just my viewpoint and everyone is entitled to their own and people come at this from different angles.

Like mick mick I wouldn’t back horse B over first choice horse A, however if horse B is a reasonably bigger price than horse A but a very close second in my ratings I might be tempted to have an extra bet on horse B.
 
Last edited:
Thank you for all your responses. I simplified the approach and find it most helpful especially if, as I have done, a minimum value is considered below which its a swerve for the horse.

The factors I've found most helpful are trainer and jockey stats for 14 days, stat at the distance and going. I find course stats and jockey stats on the horse influential but not necessary to include.

Good luck tomorrow
 
Hello all,

I'd normally put this on my thread but seems right here

I also look at the horses strike rate. The trainer a jockey stats are added together. I don't multiply the factors but add them up as the horse totals are then more manageable.

I've looked at the 7.15 Chelmsford and the horses I'm interested in are desert frost, commander Han and insurgence which I have as 7/2, 2/1 and 5/4 respectively. The last 2 are value and pass my minimum so my hopes are with them.

Good luck today
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top