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USA Racing (Early Pace) Spot Picks

pete

pete

Sire
Similar to other thread, but instead of late pace - this one concentrates on early pace horses.
Note : Last time I tracked this, it had a higher strike rate, but lost money overall, will try and grab early prices where possible and see if that can turn the loss into profit.

Tuesday : Early Pace (early prices available in brackets)
20:45 - Louisiana - R1 - #2 - Got Fashion (2.2)
21:04 - Philadelphia - R8 - #4 - Breithorn (2.5)
22:03 - Louisiana - R4 - #1 - Creative Plan (2.75)
 
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pete said:
Similar to other thread, but instead of late pace - this one concentrates on early pace horses.
Note : Last time I tracked this, it had a higher strike rate, but lost money overall, will try and grab early prices where possible and see if that can turn the loss into profit.

Tuesday : Early Pace
20:45 - Louisiana - R1 - #2 - Got Fashion
21:04 - Philadelphia - R8 - #4 - Breithorn
22:03 - Louisiana - R4 - #1 - Creative Plan
Click to expand...

I guess that would tend to follow on from the rationale on Tote pricing - a clear lone speed horse will get market attention and be driven down in price almost irrespective hence needing a really solid strike rate to be able to profit?
 
Graeme said:
I guess that would tend to follow on from the rationale on Tote pricing - a clear lone speed horse will get market attention and be driven down in price almost irrespective hence needing a really solid strike rate to be able to profit?
Click to expand...

Yes, early pace horses tend to get over-bet.

This does not concentrate on Lone early pace though, just horses that appear to have a speed advantage from the "early pace" speed figures.

If there are other Early pace horses in the field, it may well result in a speed dual and setup for a closer.
 
Larry said:
I don't know when you sleep @
pete
pete but it must be stupid'o'clock in the states at the mo
Click to expand...

7am right now. Bad storms rolled through here about 4am, dogs woke me up. Figured I would have an early breakfast before a mid-morning nap ;)
 
Tuesday : Results
20:45 - Louisiana - R1 - #2 - Got Fashion (2.2) - 2nd
21:04 - Philadelphia - R8 - #4 - Breithorn (2.5) - 2nd
22:03 - Louisiana - R4 - #1 - Creative Plan (2.75) - lost

all three short odds, all three lost
Will persevere for a while and see where it goes.
 
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Weds :
Early Pace
19:16 - Philidelphia - R4 - #1A - Sunshine Wild
21:37 - Louisiana - R3 - #5 - Miss Billie K
22:29 - Louisiana - R5 - #4 - Mangelsen
23:00 - Indiana - R6 - #3 = Boom Five Thousand
23:50 - Evangeline - R1 - #7 - Guitarzan
01:11 - Evangeline - R4 - #7 - High Cruise
01:36 - Penn - R7 - #2 - Wear My Ring
 
Early Pace - results
19:16 - Philidelphia - R4 - #1A - Sunshine Wild - lost
21:37 - Louisiana - R3 - #5 - Miss Billie K - lost
22:29 - Louisiana - R5 - #4 - Mangelsen - non-runner
23:00 - Indiana - R6 - #3 = Boom Five Thousand - lost
23:50 - Evangeline - R1 - #7 - Guitarzan - lost
01:11 - Evangeline - R4 - #7 - High Cruise - lost
01:36 - Penn - R7 - #2 - Wear My Ring - non - runner

Again, they all lost, all led at some point early in the race and faded. some at very short odds.
A lay system we may have .. but its not my thing.

Will keep on picking and see what happens for a while.
 
These are 0 from 10 so far:
If we show no intent soon i'm going to drop them.
I suspect we have proven that this selection method is poor.

Friday - Early Pace
Churchill - R3 - #1 - Paulas Game
Churchill - R7 - #2 - Copa
Belmont - R3 - #3 - Quiet Out East
Belmont - R7 - #4 - My Lips Are Sealed
Santa Anita - R4 - #3 - Club Cal
Penn - R7 - #1 - Troll Crossing
Penn - R10 - #6 - Lord Jacque
 
Friday - Early Pace - results
Churchill - R3 - #1 - Paulas Game - lost
Churchill - R7 - #2 - Copa - lost
Belmont - R3 - #3 - Quiet Out East - lost
Belmont - R7 - #4 - My Lips Are Sealed - won @ 4.25
Santa Anita - R4 - #3 - Club Cal
Penn - R7 - #1 - Troll Crossing
Penn - R10 - #6 - Lord Jacque
 
pete said:
Nah, this early pace method has never made money, I was thinking early prices may push it into the black, but its looking unlikely.
Click to expand...
Could it be a trainer ploy - give them a quick sprint in rediness for a genuine run - if so is the laying the answer
 
Well done with My Lips Are Sealed , always look out to see if any of yours tally with mine , especially if its a first choice for mine (i had my lips .. as a danger and it proved right) . Maybe worth looking out for in future pete pete , any that correspond
 
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