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USA Racing (Early Pace) Spot Picks

pete

Dam
Similar to other thread, but instead of late pace - this one concentrates on early pace horses.
Note : Last time I tracked this, it had a higher strike rate, but lost money overall, will try and grab early prices where possible and see if that can turn the loss into profit.

Tuesday : Early Pace (early prices available in brackets)
20:45 - Louisiana - R1 - #2 - Got Fashion (2.2)
21:04 - Philadelphia - R8 - #4 - Breithorn (2.5)
22:03 - Louisiana - R4 - #1 - Creative Plan (2.75)
 
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Graeme

Sire
Similar to other thread, but instead of late pace - this one concentrates on early pace horses.
Note : Last time I tracked this, it had a higher strike rate, but lost money overall, will try and grab early prices where possible and see if that can turn the loss into profit.

Tuesday : Early Pace
20:45 - Louisiana - R1 - #2 - Got Fashion
21:04 - Philadelphia - R8 - #4 - Breithorn
22:03 - Louisiana - R4 - #1 - Creative Plan

I guess that would tend to follow on from the rationale on Tote pricing - a clear lone speed horse will get market attention and be driven down in price almost irrespective hence needing a really solid strike rate to be able to profit?
 

pete

Dam
I guess that would tend to follow on from the rationale on Tote pricing - a clear lone speed horse will get market attention and be driven down in price almost irrespective hence needing a really solid strike rate to be able to profit?

Yes, early pace horses tend to get over-bet.

This does not concentrate on Lone early pace though, just horses that appear to have a speed advantage from the "early pace" speed figures.

If there are other Early pace horses in the field, it may well result in a speed dual and setup for a closer.
 

pete

Dam
I don't know when you sleep @
pete
pete but it must be stupid'o'clock in the states at the mo

7am right now. Bad storms rolled through here about 4am, dogs woke me up. Figured I would have an early breakfast before a mid-morning nap ;)
 

pete

Dam
Tuesday : Results
20:45 - Louisiana - R1 - #2 - Got Fashion (2.2) - 2nd
21:04 - Philadelphia - R8 - #4 - Breithorn (2.5) - 2nd
22:03 - Louisiana - R4 - #1 - Creative Plan (2.75) - lost

all three short odds, all three lost
Will persevere for a while and see where it goes.
 
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pete

Dam
Weds :
Early Pace
19:16 - Philidelphia - R4 - #1A - Sunshine Wild
21:37 - Louisiana - R3 - #5 - Miss Billie K
22:29 - Louisiana - R5 - #4 - Mangelsen
23:00 - Indiana - R6 - #3 = Boom Five Thousand
23:50 - Evangeline - R1 - #7 - Guitarzan
01:11 - Evangeline - R4 - #7 - High Cruise
01:36 - Penn - R7 - #2 - Wear My Ring
 

pete

Dam
Early Pace - results
19:16 - Philidelphia - R4 - #1A - Sunshine Wild - lost
21:37 - Louisiana - R3 - #5 - Miss Billie K - lost
22:29 - Louisiana - R5 - #4 - Mangelsen - non-runner
23:00 - Indiana - R6 - #3 = Boom Five Thousand - lost
23:50 - Evangeline - R1 - #7 - Guitarzan - lost
01:11 - Evangeline - R4 - #7 - High Cruise - lost
01:36 - Penn - R7 - #2 - Wear My Ring - non - runner

Again, they all lost, all led at some point early in the race and faded. some at very short odds.
A lay system we may have .. but its not my thing.

Will keep on picking and see what happens for a while.
 

pete

Dam
These are 0 from 10 so far:
If we show no intent soon i'm going to drop them.
I suspect we have proven that this selection method is poor.

Friday - Early Pace
Churchill - R3 - #1 - Paulas Game
Churchill - R7 - #2 - Copa
Belmont - R3 - #3 - Quiet Out East
Belmont - R7 - #4 - My Lips Are Sealed
Santa Anita - R4 - #3 - Club Cal
Penn - R7 - #1 - Troll Crossing
Penn - R10 - #6 - Lord Jacque
 

pete

Dam
Friday - Early Pace - results
Churchill - R3 - #1 - Paulas Game - lost
Churchill - R7 - #2 - Copa - lost
Belmont - R3 - #3 - Quiet Out East - lost
Belmont - R7 - #4 - My Lips Are Sealed - won @ 4.25
Santa Anita - R4 - #3 - Club Cal
Penn - R7 - #1 - Troll Crossing
Penn - R10 - #6 - Lord Jacque
 

markfinn

Sire
Nah, this early pace method has never made money, I was thinking early prices may push it into the black, but its looking unlikely.
Could it be a trainer ploy - give them a quick sprint in rediness for a genuine run - if so is the laying the answer
 

Sean

Gelding
Well done with My Lips Are Sealed , always look out to see if any of yours tally with mine , especially if its a first choice for mine (i had my lips .. as a danger and it proved right) . Maybe worth looking out for in future pete pete , any that correspond
 
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