Thirsty1907
Filly
Inspired in part by the impressive showing of Si Woo Kim this weekend I thought I would finally look a little deeper into something that has intrigued me for a while, namely the apparent difficulty for golfers to follow up a low round of the day with another decent round.
I have taken a look at this seasons tournaments and analysed the following round scores of those players who shot the best (or equal best) score in the previous round. I’m not sure if there is any angle to be had here in terms of trading but it has satisfied my interest and proved quite enlightening.
I have not included any small field events (i.e. Nedbank Challenge, Hyundai tournament of champions) and also not included tournaments that are played on multiple courses.
Overall I have looked at 290 rounds following on from a low round previously, this covers 60 tournaments. The average increase in score between a low round and the follow up is 5.4 shots. This resulted in 37% of the time the follow up score being over par, 12% at Par and 51% under par.
There are only 7 occasions were a player has equalled or bettered a low round the following day and only 4 of these resulted in a second consecutive low round.
Of the 60 tournaments 35 (58%) were won by a player who shot a low round during the tournament.
If we remove the majors from the data and compare the European tour against the PGA tour we start to see a difference.
The swing in score in Europe is 6.3 shots following a low round compared to 5.46 in the US.
47% of the time in Europe the follow up round will be over par and only 39% staying under par whilst in the US these figures are 30% and 61%.
In Europe 10 out of the 25 winners posted a low score during the tournaments (40%) whilst in the U.S the figures are 22 from 31 (70.9%)
I am unsure why there is such a difference in the percentage of winners who have shot a low round and also the difference in the over / under par in the following round. The actual average score to par for a low round isn’t too different 6.4 below par in Europe and 6.8 in the U.S. so I don’t think it is simply a case of the U.S. courses being easier, although in general winning scores are lower there than in Europe.
Maybe someone will find this information useful or at least interesting but I thought I would finish with the “Hall of Shame” for the worst performance following a low round of the day!
In Europe there is a clear winner, Callum Shinkwin for his unbelievable performance at the Shenzhen International in China were he followed up a course record 62 during the 3rd round with a 79 in the fourth, a 17 shot swing.
In the U.S. nothing quite as big in terms of shot swing from one round to the next with several players shooting a score 12 shots worse than their low round of the day but a special mention must go to Keegan Bradley who shot an opening round 67 in the Valspar Championship and sat in a 3 way tie for the lead but then followed it up with a 79 and missed the cut!
I have taken a look at this seasons tournaments and analysed the following round scores of those players who shot the best (or equal best) score in the previous round. I’m not sure if there is any angle to be had here in terms of trading but it has satisfied my interest and proved quite enlightening.
I have not included any small field events (i.e. Nedbank Challenge, Hyundai tournament of champions) and also not included tournaments that are played on multiple courses.
Overall I have looked at 290 rounds following on from a low round previously, this covers 60 tournaments. The average increase in score between a low round and the follow up is 5.4 shots. This resulted in 37% of the time the follow up score being over par, 12% at Par and 51% under par.
There are only 7 occasions were a player has equalled or bettered a low round the following day and only 4 of these resulted in a second consecutive low round.
Of the 60 tournaments 35 (58%) were won by a player who shot a low round during the tournament.
If we remove the majors from the data and compare the European tour against the PGA tour we start to see a difference.
The swing in score in Europe is 6.3 shots following a low round compared to 5.46 in the US.
47% of the time in Europe the follow up round will be over par and only 39% staying under par whilst in the US these figures are 30% and 61%.
In Europe 10 out of the 25 winners posted a low score during the tournaments (40%) whilst in the U.S the figures are 22 from 31 (70.9%)
I am unsure why there is such a difference in the percentage of winners who have shot a low round and also the difference in the over / under par in the following round. The actual average score to par for a low round isn’t too different 6.4 below par in Europe and 6.8 in the U.S. so I don’t think it is simply a case of the U.S. courses being easier, although in general winning scores are lower there than in Europe.
Maybe someone will find this information useful or at least interesting but I thought I would finish with the “Hall of Shame” for the worst performance following a low round of the day!
In Europe there is a clear winner, Callum Shinkwin for his unbelievable performance at the Shenzhen International in China were he followed up a course record 62 during the 3rd round with a 79 in the fourth, a 17 shot swing.
In the U.S. nothing quite as big in terms of shot swing from one round to the next with several players shooting a score 12 shots worse than their low round of the day but a special mention must go to Keegan Bradley who shot an opening round 67 in the Valspar Championship and sat in a 3 way tie for the lead but then followed it up with a 79 and missed the cut!
