UKBF Common Race
- Thread starter markfinn
- Start date
doomster
Dam
I totally agree with your comment T tacker .
He clearly looks the best in here, but 154 in this race is a tough ask for a 9yo. and the claim would have made perfect sense.
A mark that high you would really be looking at a younger potential Champion hurdle horse.
The big upside is the fact it looks a weak Greatwood, with only one Nicholl's runner and a couple of Alan Kings in the field, who tends to be far cuter with their horse placement/preperation.
best of luck
doomster yes the point you make about this being a weak greatwood is sound and that's probably why the top weights come into it, what i would add is really deep ground and they really need to go in it.Shame we haven't had more input.
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Frank Boyle
Filly
Watched the Novice race and ground looked quiet good maybe wrong The shunter draws the cash for Robbie Power Good Luck
doomster
Dam
Well done
Frank Boyle 
Ballyandy ran a cracker T tacker . Unfortunately, he probably set the race up The Shunter forcing it early.
Frank Boyle Ballyandy ran a cracker T tacker . Unfortunately, he probably set the race up The Shunter forcing it early.
Again you're probably correct jockey certainly committed but then he does have form over further and i go back to "if" they had taken 5lbs off his back, now he will get bit more from the handicapper.Well done
Ballyandy ran a cracker T tacker . Unfortunately, he probably set the race up The Shunter forcing it early.
markfinn
Sire
He was mentioned every where - I was very surprised at the 8/1 ? some one knew
1.30 market rasen
This is a decent race and well worth a bit if scrutiny imo.
I will mention just 2 horses, first GLINGER FLAME who has won his last 4 races over hurdles, all at hexham on gd or gd - sft. I thought he was winning with a bit in hand last time but it became a little close, now up to 135 and going right handed it might be tougher but could go close.
The other one that interest me is COOLANLY who mixed it with some good novices inc a win over PYM 2 yrs ago, his last hdl run was a cl1 handicap chep and has run in nov ch since and winning the last of them in oct, they have put a 7lb claimer on top today so carries 10.13 and because he might be better suited to this longer dist is slightly preferred.
This is a decent race and well worth a bit if scrutiny imo.
I will mention just 2 horses, first GLINGER FLAME who has won his last 4 races over hurdles, all at hexham on gd or gd - sft. I thought he was winning with a bit in hand last time but it became a little close, now up to 135 and going right handed it might be tougher but could go close.
The other one that interest me is COOLANLY who mixed it with some good novices inc a win over PYM 2 yrs ago, his last hdl run was a cl1 handicap chep and has run in nov ch since and winning the last of them in oct, they have put a 7lb claimer on top today so carries 10.13 and because he might be better suited to this longer dist is slightly preferred.
mick
Sire
Have just noticed no race for today so thought i would offer the below. I actually posted it elsewhere on the forum on Wen afternoon which proved a mistake in respect that the 10/1 taken at the time had improved to 14/1 with some this morning. The animal is currently a general 11/1 and i suspect this is a betting stable so probably not a positive but fortunately stranger things do happen.
Fri 20th Newc 6.15 : Captain Jameson @ 10/1
A 6 fur 0-85 with 14 run. I backed Jameson twice during the flat season and as he has not won for two years and is now on a losing run of 20 my initial reaction was BLA but another proper look triggered more positive thoughts which subject to price might cause me to give him a third and final chance. Currently i am thinking 10/1 would enable.
Lto was his first attempt over this CD and his 2.75 len 3rd of 12 under 9-9 while nothing to crow about in a 0-75 was at least the closest he has come to winning this year and he did earn favorable RI comment " didn't have the race run to suit but he was putting in some good work at the finish. It was only his fourth try on the AW and his first visit at this track, and it's easy to see him doing better here off a stronger gallop".
Then i had a look at the numbers because he runs here under a winsome 8-9. His two previous turf Hcap wins where both in this 0-85 grade and he carried 9-2 and 9-3. Above this weight he is 0-16 and above this grade 0-19 both of which account for 19 of the current LR 20 with the other one being over 7 fur with all of his previous wins coming at 6 fur. He also contests off an OR 13lbs lower than at this time last year.
He shows clear top off my ratings @ +2 but this was obtained from a turf run not a situation i like but an aspect i have been looking at more favorably recently. I note a previous win during Nov and he is proven in these larger Fields. His 7 box is probably not ideal but the five most recent 14 rn contests have included winners from stalls 5 8 8 so i can live with this.
The stables 41 ytd winners inc 5 at Newc and as mentioned recently although i do not tend to have Fav jockeys i am seldom uneasy when Jason Hart is on top. I note his min is 8-7 so he will carry no lead. I have just had a little grin because attempting these longer write ups is in part an aid to convincing myself and this one is a good example as i started with the BLA thought which has now progressed to a reasonable case to be made on balance.
WH have just opened @ the required 10/1 so snagging some of this will do for starters.
Fri 20th Newc 6.15 : Captain Jameson @ 10/1
A 6 fur 0-85 with 14 run. I backed Jameson twice during the flat season and as he has not won for two years and is now on a losing run of 20 my initial reaction was BLA but another proper look triggered more positive thoughts which subject to price might cause me to give him a third and final chance. Currently i am thinking 10/1 would enable.
Lto was his first attempt over this CD and his 2.75 len 3rd of 12 under 9-9 while nothing to crow about in a 0-75 was at least the closest he has come to winning this year and he did earn favorable RI comment " didn't have the race run to suit but he was putting in some good work at the finish. It was only his fourth try on the AW and his first visit at this track, and it's easy to see him doing better here off a stronger gallop".
Then i had a look at the numbers because he runs here under a winsome 8-9. His two previous turf Hcap wins where both in this 0-85 grade and he carried 9-2 and 9-3. Above this weight he is 0-16 and above this grade 0-19 both of which account for 19 of the current LR 20 with the other one being over 7 fur with all of his previous wins coming at 6 fur. He also contests off an OR 13lbs lower than at this time last year.
He shows clear top off my ratings @ +2 but this was obtained from a turf run not a situation i like but an aspect i have been looking at more favorably recently. I note a previous win during Nov and he is proven in these larger Fields. His 7 box is probably not ideal but the five most recent 14 rn contests have included winners from stalls 5 8 8 so i can live with this.
The stables 41 ytd winners inc 5 at Newc and as mentioned recently although i do not tend to have Fav jockeys i am seldom uneasy when Jason Hart is on top. I note his min is 8-7 so he will carry no lead. I have just had a little grin because attempting these longer write ups is in part an aid to convincing myself and this one is a good example as i started with the BLA thought which has now progressed to a reasonable case to be made on balance.
WH have just opened @ the required 10/1 so snagging some of this will do for starters.
doomster
Dam
As mentioned on another thread, I'm finding it difficut to get a grasp on the pace/ draw angles at the track and probably best to ignore any percieved bias at the moment.
I took a look at the race, but the only bet I tried to get on was @Micks Captain Jameson @ 18.0, which never got matched .
I will check back pre race and have another try, but another couple had my attention.
Call Me Ginger could be well treated here and is a double figure price.
Returns to C&D off 82, having been beaten by Deep Intruige over C&D in conditions race . It looked a major cock up on 2nd run,, 170 bf sp and just getting beat by a solid 94 OR horse.
Goldie actually said after the race:
The horse had a break and came out and won a maiden off a break. The horse has since run 11 times on turf without a win but OR has dropped 87 to 82 and he certainly could be a better horse on this surface and does tend to be held up.
Dawson last rode the horse with a 5lb claim, so it's an obvious worry . Their hand has been forced as Dawson is riding Fantasy Keeper who he won on lto.
The other pick does get the claimer 1st time up flag, with Tyler Heard 3/7 for the trainer ( same horse all wins), who also rides Medicine Jack for the trainer in a later 6f contest.
Dandys Gold won on first run for the trainer early this year over C&D/ same class off a generous 76, by a decent 2.5 lths. That seemed a moderate event at the time but the 2nd was in form and rattled off a hatrick afterwards and a 12lb hike.
He has since run with credit at this track twice; over 8f in a 15k contest and 2nd over over C&D in the same class as today.
If the 7lb claim does assist, off the same mark, she should be in the mix.
I can see more than half the field struugling to get cover from the start and there will be hard luck involved.
I will cover all three horses, as they all appear to be double digits on the exchange.
I took a look at the race, but the only bet I tried to get on was @Micks Captain Jameson @ 18.0, which never got matched .
I will check back pre race and have another try, but another couple had my attention.
Call Me Ginger could be well treated here and is a double figure price.
Returns to C&D off 82, having been beaten by Deep Intruige over C&D in conditions race . It looked a major cock up on 2nd run,, 170 bf sp and just getting beat by a solid 94 OR horse.
Goldie actually said after the race:
The horse had a break and came out and won a maiden off a break. The horse has since run 11 times on turf without a win but OR has dropped 87 to 82 and he certainly could be a better horse on this surface and does tend to be held up.
Dawson last rode the horse with a 5lb claim, so it's an obvious worry . Their hand has been forced as Dawson is riding Fantasy Keeper who he won on lto.
The other pick does get the claimer 1st time up flag, with Tyler Heard 3/7 for the trainer ( same horse all wins), who also rides Medicine Jack for the trainer in a later 6f contest.
Dandys Gold won on first run for the trainer early this year over C&D/ same class off a generous 76, by a decent 2.5 lths. That seemed a moderate event at the time but the 2nd was in form and rattled off a hatrick afterwards and a 12lb hike.
He has since run with credit at this track twice; over 8f in a 15k contest and 2nd over over C&D in the same class as today.
If the 7lb claim does assist, off the same mark, she should be in the mix.
I can see more than half the field struugling to get cover from the start and there will be hard luck involved.
I will cover all three horses, as they all appear to be double digits on the exchange.
Terrific stuff
markfinn
markfinn
Sire
Thanks but it was not backed - the race was a mess I only looked at it because it was up - I will have to watch it now to see what I have missed out on -
we have this conversation around Ratings V Profiling I am sorry to say the numbers work better for me most of the time, but one without the other seldom works well enough
Horses they make us all feel a little foolish every now and then
we have this conversation around Ratings V Profiling I am sorry to say the numbers work better for me most of the time, but one without the other seldom works well enough
Horses they make us all feel a little foolish every now and then