Thanks for posting the video, I enjoyed it. If horses, like greyhounds, were given stalls according to running styles and preferences then on a fair course without much bias, in a small to average size field, the result might truly mirror a horses actual ability. assuming too, that all the horses were at, or very close to, peak fitness. Assuming too that there were no hard luck stories in the race and all jockeys were competent and did not underperform. That would give a baseline of ability, assuming too, the horses were all fully matured. Would that be a race worth study? Or could you take it as read, at face value.
Within each race there might be several mini races develop which might provide similar study. taking a performance based upon the horse around them with similar luck in running and equally advantaged or disadvantaged by the draw and how the race was run.
I guess though, that in the search for value its the horses that for whatever reason are better than they show that are of interest. Maybe through simply maturing, becoming experienced or through the vagaries of races and race riding.
The biggest trap in racing is the notion of a horse repeating a performance given, as far as one can tell the same conditions. They are always overbet. The truth is, we don't know all the variables, and the most important one, 'How does the horse feel' is an unknown. If I drank six pints, wore carpet slippers, had a meat pie and a packet of crisps and won a darts tourney at the Nags Head on Friday night, there is more chance of me tripping over than repeating the feat, the following Friday, even if the conditions are to all intents and purposes, the same.
HT makes the point that you can't make money backing the obvious, on the other hand some tipsters make a point of supporting the non obvious.....if a horse has just taken a heavy fall when fancied in the last race, its a sounder bet, pricewise next time out. The search for value makes for some strange bets. You could make money backing a true 180/1 horse at 200/1 in the long run, but you would need a strong stomach and deep pockets. There is value to be found in novice chasers that fall as they learn, but there's something odd about backing bad jumpers, up to now, in a jumping contest. Therein, I think lies the appeal of systems, they force you to follow the profits, devoid of sentiment. Doesn't have to be a system for horses, can be your own personal management that needs systemising, (think of JP's claim about no betting after a big setback). Only a system coud force someone to consistently back huge longshots and serial fallers. My favourite system is to back longstanding 12yr old maidens on the grounds that the long suffering owners need a win before the horse retires or dies. But only if its over 100/1 and ridden by a lady amateur, I have not had a selection yet but its only a matter of time.
The same principle of value based on race analysis goes hand in hand with all the other stuff they referred to in the piece, trainer and jockey, training methods race planning etc etc. If you were doing it seriously its very hard. The reason people specialize is because there's too much to look at. In specializing you make the work manageable, but as HT implies, you miss chances to profit. That maybe is the driving force for team based approaches. The Timeform 'Jury' has had horrendous losing streaks and that's the result of a collegiate approach. It is food for thought.
HT is a really expert racereader, much the best available for the ordinary punter, his preferred battleground is not for me. AW is made for 'unlucky in running' stories and he is pre-eminent in exploiting that. Good luck to anyone following his methods, you will certainly strain your eyesight, enlarge your middle and shorten your life. Its a strange way to enjoy a hobby and there are easier jobs...writing for one, as HT alludes to. Why do 99.9% of 'pro punters' change to punditry....it pays better. You don't have to worry about getting the money on and a pension.
Thanks again, it demonstrates another truism....the backroom anoraks are better than the pro pundits. HT over KB all day long.