markfinn, I will try although I am not sure what it is you want?
The 'market expected' are derived from using the OR in hcap as par for the race where all are weighted to have an equal chance, therefore, eight runners the odds of every runner in theory is 7/1, so, those longer than 7/1 are 'not expected'.
The Fineform master formula ratings top rating possible is 20.5+
3 pts each for the first three in the betting forecast (I use the early market odds instead)
Last two outings in the current season.
5 pts each win, 3pts each 2nd, 2 points each 3rd, 1 point each 4th. Except only one outing in the current season rates double points e.g., 1 win = 10
3 points C&D,CD. 2 points D, 1 point C.
4 points top three plus any joint from a form rating. I use RPR.
Splitting (I don't bother with this)
1/2 pt extra for top form rating and if still equal + for the shortest odds in the betting forecast.
Then all that need to be done is to convert the ratings to 'fair' odds, that is no advantage to any player, therefore longer odds are required to gain an edge.
The same system can be used for non-hcaps as the true mathematical odds for any race is one less than the number of runners in the field.