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UKBF Common Race



Top rated Gun Metal - have to go back to 2018 to find his last win of OR 97 now on 78 should be well in but 0/6 at his course

Lightly raced Asad rushing up the OR and a win here takes the 5yr into Class C and bigger purses where breeding suggests he ought to be - Stable currently consistently among'st the winners after a slow patch - good Jockey booking - Sire Lope De Vegas and the OR jump is well within his scope - won 1st time out WS - now 3WS - the horse horse seem to change stables every race but Appleby seems to have found the key

Ghathaafar CD - trainer going well -

Need both Asad and Ghathaafar


Hi markfinn markfinn

I picked up Asad when Chrisford purchased him for 2500 https://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/pedigree-notebook.57795/post-406009

Originally cost 3000,000

I will swerve this race as he is probably difficult to keep sound and has been off the track again for 55 days. With Asad’s pedigree I would not want to go against him, but for reasons above would not be confident about the horse being fit.


Below is the combined rankings sheet I have been working on for some time.

r1,r2,r3 and are rankings of 3 ratings I use..they are diverse as possible.. I use rsq in excel to examine correlation.

I sum these rankings and col h shows the ranking of these.

r4,r5 and r6 are other rankings I use and p1,p2 and p3 are additional pointers.

Asad has the optimum rankings...3....the odds is the problem
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ATR have this race forecast as weak. I don’t think so. I think Asad will go off super fast. I respect Asad. Lope De Vegas are going well again at the track. But I’m not interested at the price.
This should set be set for a closer. Trouble is there’s lots of closers who ive got notes like wins next time. I backed Atthoblair Boy who was a bit short of room LTO and will be close at the finish again. Devils Angel is a monster who I’ve also backed previously, timing is of the essence on this one as if ain’t delivered right on the line it doesn’t fight back. As I’m writing my selection has just been withdrawn I was getting big prices on the exchanges for Hart Stopper. So I’m going to play Atholblair Boy again and hope it gets a kinder passage. So it’s Megan vs Faye for me. Whos gonna time it right?


thank you ardnehue ardnehue I now get the Clement the bet is a CSF a mix of Clement & sigmund Freud 🤣
In races where there was a danger to his main selection, Freud would back his selection to win, and place a straight forecast on the danger to beat his selection.

This is a much more profitable bet than backing the selection each way. It costs the same as an each way bet but this insurance bet can be more profitable.

If your selection wins then all well and good. But if your hunch is right, and the danger beats the selection then you get a decent forecast up.