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    Ark Royal
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  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
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    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


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    AR

UKBF Common Race

Graeme

Dam
Another tricky little contest with many in the field capable of running at pace faster than class pars. Revolutionise is top of my ratings and won well LTO going away and appears to be on an improving form cycle BUT competitive as I say and if I were to play that card it would have to be at least as an each way chance
 
Good post mlmrob mlmrob and interesting that your two are the respective choices for myself and F Frontrunner which we have both decided to swerve. God help us all but at least it don't get boring. :)
If Lord Rapscallion wins, it won’t bother too much as I didn’t look at race in detail so I never intended to bet on it. If I did look at it in more detail then I probably would have talked myself out of it because of first time on surface against as many as 5 course winners. I might kick myself more if Rathbone wins, for saying to you on Sunday that this looked a stronger race than last year :)

Agree, very good post from mlmrob mlmrob
 

mlmrob

Sire
F Frontrunner

Stuart Williams is at Newcastle quite a bit and they have 'schooling races' on non racedays and sometimes on the afternoon before an evening meeting. The problem is we don't know who is there with what horse. I have myself been down and noticed horseboxes from Yorkshire yards, Ellison is a frequent visitor and that winner of his you backed the other week had been a visitor.
Williams is mob handed in the race and won it with Suzis Connoisseur, I just think they may have had this on the radar as all three horses are owned by Tom Morley and though I am not 100% I believe Morley was part of the Connoisseurs syndicate that owned Suzi when he won it in 2017.
 

markfinn

Sire
Great response as per usual - but even more so as not an easy race -

Not a lot left to say and all the traditional views and form reading has been done -other than

I backed him early this morning - youngest of the pile - local stable absolutely on fire this year - stable owned, which applies to few others in this race - also there is only one stable that might be out of - Williams brings three which would normally lead myself to bailing out of the race before I began -

the speed and draw I think in a perfect world the race would play like this

1614093263362.png

But speed does not seem to be the best guide at the course and grit seems to come to the fore which give me a different shape to the race

My grit grid
1614093784521.png

Which is Handy as Lord of Lodge is my choice - just hope the French claimer is looking in
 

ardnehue

Mare
markfinn markfinn

just checking dutching calculations as per the handicap thread

random stake 8units
Revolutionise 10.0 betfair....... 8*12/22 = 4.36 stake
LOTL 12.0 betfair..8*10/22= 3.63 stake

gain/loss.....36.44/8 =4.55/1

does this number have to be over 2.75/1 or 3.75/1 to qualify as a bet for you?

its the decimal odds confuses me
 

markfinn

Sire
markfinn markfinn

just checking dutching calculations as per the handicap thread

random stake 8units
Revolutionise 10.0 betfair....... 8*12/22 = 4.36 stake
LOTL 12.0 betfair..8*10/22= 3.63 stake

gain/loss.....36.44/8 =4.55/1

does this number have to be over 2.75/1 or 3.75/1 to qualify as a bet for you?

its the decimal odds confuses me
oh going back a bit now - min odds 3.6 BET FAIR - inc 2% commission and 11/4 traditional bookies
 
I tried to figure how Repertiore got a mark of 95 before moving over from France.

It's based on his two runs on the fibresand over 6.5f. Both held up in rear and stayed on stedily. His first run was behind the Fabre stablemte, Duhail who was the fav . They were off levels and Duhail went on to win a turf h/cap off 102.

Repertoire failed to act on heavy on final run over there which is a surprise as he has a high knee action. Using the two f/s runs, even with the bad draw, 25/1 available and 30.0 on the exchange looks worth the risk of a shock here.

His run style looks ideal and getting a 1lb drop for an easy win on 1st run over here, is certainly no negative.
 

Emptymind

Filly
I tried to figure how Repertiore got a mark of 95 before moving over from France.

It's based on his two runs on the fibresand over 6.5f. Both held up in rear and stayed on stedily. His first run was behind the Fabre stablemte, Duhail who was the fav . They were off levels and Duhail went on to win a turf h/cap off 102.

Repertoire failed to act on heavy on final run over there which is a surprise as he has a high knee action. Using the two f/s runs, even with the bad draw, 25/1 available and 30.0 on the exchange looks worth the risk of a shock here.

His run style looks ideal and getting a 1lb drop for an easy win on 1st run over here, is certainly no negative.
Hi Doomster great research. I was put off by the horse who came 2nd at wolves coming last here NTO.
 

ardnehue

Mare
I did the race profiling..found 8 similiar races..same distance,class,course,age group.
4 winners from 8 drawn 1 to 3
5 from 8 down in distance
5 from 8 in the top 3 of the weights.
6 of the 8 ran last between 28 and 56 days
7 of the 8 had less than 6 runs on the aw
of 17 runners that ran last at Wolv none won.

only one horse fits all of these LORD RAPSCALLION my small ew bet

as well as dutched the top2 in my sheet REVOLUTIONISE and LORD OF THE LODGE
 
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I haven't looked into the race in depth Emptymind Emptymind , as I'm trying to limit my bets on the straight track to a handful over the year.

Having looked at tonight's races, the track looks faster than I'd expected, which now backs up your theory.

It's the Wolver race I like in terms of getting a price tonight. The horse basically had a schooling session, but actually ran stronger final fractions than three of the opposition tonight, from the Revoutionise race on the 10/02/21.

I bore people to death about how Gosden sent foe a maiden at Hamilton with a mark of 82, beating 50 rated horses. won by 18 lengths and h/capper kept on the same mark .

Ran 2 weeks later at Nottingham for a decent gamble and then won the Lincoln the following Spring.

Best of luck
 
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