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  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
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UKBF Common Race

tacker

Mare
Standard to slow might make this a race where you need to truly stay 7f and probably won't suit the pace, to be honest i find it hard to know how the race will unfold. REVOLUTIONISE can be keen and again that won't help here but has improved to today's mark of 94 and is in very good form including lto when he had LORD OF THE LODGE just over 3L behind getting 15 lbs, today he gets 6lb but a 5lb claim could be taken into account if that's fair, so on balance I will go for LORD OF THE LODGE but happy to watch.
 

Emptymind

Filly
As ever the pace will decide these 7f races at Newcastle. Many of them will employ holdup tactics including last years winner Sannaadh. If they go a fast or just even pace then Sannadh will be delivered late up the near side rail to win under Franny Norton who seems to get even better with age. But hold your horses here so many want to be delivered late. Can we get clever jockeys up front being brave enough to go slow? In the middle we will have Lord of The lodge under Pierre Louis Jamin (5) pace setting on the near side rail we will have Papa Stour ridden by Marco Ghianni (3). Both these claimers need to show great mental strength and not get caught up in the noise of the rattle of hooves on the cold tapeta track.
Readers of my thread (that will be two of you) will know that K R Burke (Lord Of the Lodge) has been going amazingly well this month blasting in 8 victories all ready, mainly with the partnership of Clifford Lee. However PLJ did claim two of those victories. As Tacker points out LOTL has a 14lb swing with Revolutionise for a 1.5L defeat.
Papa Stour also ran in this race last year beaten 2.5l (Sixth). Hes better drawn this year in 10 and will tow along Sannadh (11). Marco will need to be at his best to out wit Franny. Can he do it? Well the market says no being one of the rags at a present 25/1. There is a piece of form over Kemptons 7f that gives Papa Stour a chance. Back in November Papa won off a mark of 88 beating today's current Fav (on the exchanges) Diocles of Rome. DOR went off 86 and lost by 0.5L. Today Papa Stour is running off 6lb lower including the claim so is 8lb better off and half a length over DOR. LTO PS ran over the wrong trip (8f) fading after leading over a furlong from home. This step down to 7f is sure to suit. So all in all I think PS is too big at 25s even when you consider his average course form.

So I will dutch for the likely 2 at the front Papa Stour and Lord Of the Lodge and hope they set slow fractions.
 

markfinn

Sire
As ever the pace will decide these 7f races at Newcastle. Many of them will employ holdup tactics including last years winner Sannaadh. If they go a fast or just even pace then Sannadh will be delivered late up the near side rail to win under Franny Norton who seems to get even better with age. But hold your horses here so many want to be delivered late. Can we get clever jockeys up front being brave enough to go slow? In the middle we will have Lord of The lodge under Pierre Louis Jamin (5) pace setting on the near side rail we will have Papa Stour ridden by Marco Ghianni (3). Both these claimers need to show great mental strength and not get caught up in the noise of the rattle of hooves on the cold tapeta track.
Readers of my thread (that will be two of you) will know that K R Burke (Lord Of the Lodge) has been going amazingly well this month blasting in 8 victories all ready, mainly with the partnership of Clifford Lee. However PLJ did claim two of those victories. As Tacker points out LOTL has a 14lb swing with Revolutionise for a 1.5L defeat.
Papa Stour also ran in this race last year beaten 2.5l (Sixth). Hes better drawn this year in 10 and will tow along Sannadh (11). Marco will need to be at his best to out wit Franny. Can he do it? Well the market says no being one of the rags at a present 25/1. There is a piece of form over Kemptons 7f that gives Papa Stour a chance. Back in November Papa won off a mark of 88 beating today's current Fav (on the exchanges) Diocles of Rome. DOR went off 86 and lost by 0.5L. Today Papa Stour is running off 6lb lower including the claim so is 8lb better off and half a length over DOR. LTO PS ran over the wrong trip (8f) fading after leading over a furlong from home. This step down to 7f is sure to suit. So all in all I think PS is too big at 25s even when you consider his average course form.

So I will dutch for the likely 2 at the front Papa Stour and Lord Of the Lodge and hope they set slow fractions.
That deserves the 👏
 

mick

Sire
Good post Emptymind Emptymind a very interesting contest with my hope now being that anything wins other than Rathbone, because i had built a case of sorts but decided to swerve. Yesterday when B365 opened @11/1 this felt tempting but i concluded best stay with my swerve decision, and i now hope he runs a decent race but without winning. :eek:
 

Emptymind

Filly
Good post Emptymind Emptymind a very interesting contest with my hope now being that anything wins other than Rathbone, because i had built a case of sorts but decided to swerve. Yesterday when B365 opened @11/1 this felt tempting but i concluded best stay with my swerve decision, and i now hope he runs a decent race but without winning. :eek:
Yep Megan will have her pefectly positioned next to Lord.
 
Had a quick look at this race on Sunday. Very competitive, I am not having a bet but speculative choice is Lord Rapscallion (20/1), had some good form in Ireland and ran well at big price in a Listed race on stable debut. One of three Stuart Williams runners here. Surface an unknown, sire’s record on it is not good but smallish sample size.
 

ardnehue

Mare
Sannadh is 1 win from 13 OR 91 to 100..thats aw + flat though 1 from 6 on aw

Rathbone 1 from 17 Handicaps both codes

3 runners in the race from last years race: Sannadh,Rathbone,Papa Stour

only 2 horses in the race with more wins than 2nd or 3rds in career:Sannadh and Lord of the Lodge
 
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mlmrob

Sire
The race has been run four times and all four winners were drawn in the lowest half of the draw. With not that much information to go on, I noticed only one of the four winners had won at least one of their last three races. In fact, the stat says three horses have qualified for this race who hadn't had a top three finish in at least one of their last three races and all three won.
This year Rathbone and Lord Rapscallion qualify.

Lord Rapscallion is probably better over a mile so this stiff seven will be right up his street. His record in handicaps when carrying between 9-1 and 9-6 reads 12313101. The unplaced run was when he was drawn in the Irish Sea in the Ahonoora at Galway. A repeat of his second in the Sovereign Path off 101 would probably be enough here.

Rathbone was second in this last year from the wrong side and is 6lbs better off with Sanaadh for a neck. He is officially 2lbs higher. He had a sighter with a 7lbs claimer on his back when fifth to Sanaadh last month. Megan Nicholls takes over, she must of tossed a coin with her boyfriend Kevin Stott to see who rides him. Rathbone has been here four times and placed three and beaten a length into fifth last time. He is back in his range as his record since 3yo off marks of less than 90 reads 1125, with that fifth looking like a prep for this.

This year on the straight track at evening meetings it has been beneficial to be drawn in the middle two sectors as they have won 20 of the handicaps as opposed to 12 from the other two sectors. In fields of 9 or more runners the middle sector has won 14 of the 16 handicaps. That stat makes Rathbone a little bit stronger and therefore the selection.
 
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