That deserves theAs ever the pace will decide these 7f races at Newcastle. Many of them will employ holdup tactics including last years winner Sannaadh. If they go a fast or just even pace then Sannadh will be delivered late up the near side rail to win under Franny Norton who seems to get even better with age. But hold your horses here so many want to be delivered late. Can we get clever jockeys up front being brave enough to go slow? In the middle we will have Lord of The lodge under Pierre Louis Jamin (5) pace setting on the near side rail we will have Papa Stour ridden by Marco Ghianni (3). Both these claimers need to show great mental strength and not get caught up in the noise of the rattle of hooves on the cold tapeta track.
Readers of my thread (that will be two of you) will know that K R Burke (Lord Of the Lodge) has been going amazingly well this month blasting in 8 victories all ready, mainly with the partnership of Clifford Lee. However PLJ did claim two of those victories. As Tacker points out LOTL has a 14lb swing with Revolutionise for a 1.5L defeat.
Papa Stour also ran in this race last year beaten 2.5l (Sixth). Hes better drawn this year in 10 and will tow along Sannadh (11). Marco will need to be at his best to out wit Franny. Can he do it? Well the market says no being one of the rags at a present 25/1. There is a piece of form over Kemptons 7f that gives Papa Stour a chance. Back in November Papa won off a mark of 88 beating today's current Fav (on the exchanges) Diocles of Rome. DOR went off 86 and lost by 0.5L. Today Papa Stour is running off 6lb lower including the claim so is 8lb better off and half a length over DOR. LTO PS ran over the wrong trip (8f) fading after leading over a furlong from home. This step down to 7f is sure to suit. So all in all I think PS is too big at 25s even when you consider his average course form.
So I will dutch for the likely 2 at the front Papa Stour and Lord Of the Lodge and hope they set slow fractions.
Yep Megan will have her pefectly positioned next to Lord.Good post Emptymind a very interesting contest with my hope now being that anything wins other than Rathbone, because i had built a case of sorts but decided to swerve. Yesterday when B365 opened @11/1 this felt tempting but i concluded best stay with my swerve decision, and i now hope he runs a decent race but without winning.