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UKBF Common Race

markfinn

Sire
Thanks but it was not backed - the race was a mess I only looked at it because it was up - I will have to watch it now to see what I have missed out on -

we have this conversation around Ratings V Profiling I am sorry to say the numbers work better for me most of the time, but one without the other seldom works well enough

Horses they make us all feel a little foolish every now and then
 

markfinn

Sire
1605960091300.png

Small fields so happy to have one runner carrying the beer money - Misty Whiskey is top rated - T1 WS1 does not appeal to me

Not much to go on in this race but I like Peace Prevails - Prev Winning Jockey Up, I dont think the going or course will prevent, horse knows how to win- the stable maybe small but form looks good average 35 winners a year and low numbers skew recency stats so he may be better than a casual glance reveals - the trainer to be strait forward and he has made public his opinion on Wind Op declaration -

1605960511972.png

Maybe but some maintain all info should be out for all to see ? - although we would not see other athletes (including Jockeys) in any other sports declaring Achilles, hamstrings , wrist, knee, eyes lasered- ops ?

Any way hopefully the promised Vaccines and Peace Prevail
 
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markfinn

Sire
markfinn markfinn The trainers intention to use ear plugs and also this being shown as part of a horses past form is another aspect which i suspect costs us punters on occasions. Re your above i get the writers gist but i would still prefer to know.
I am all for as much info as possible - but there are a number of different wind ops some more severe than others and I note some 2nd ops declared - Now is that a repetition of a failed 1st wind op or a separate routine - would you want to back horse to run its best when it is unsound.

I dont know the answer but note Jim Boyle is a veterinary surgeon - as usual the authorities have been dragged into a situation that should perhaps should have been routinely monitored and added to the particular horses passport - hopefully this is now being done and can be published - it could make for interesting form string's - 178241 WD1 2546 Wnd1 - 2453 Shin splints 4321 - 58585 tooth extraction ? 21 - Vaccination 000000 -
 
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tacker

Mare
In trying to find a reason for predicting a possible winner for this race or any other for that matter i'm hoping to see one horse that is or might be better than his/her mark so starting at the top with ....

MISTY WHISKY ...Fav here but her number looks about right and she i can see why some might like her but i feel the handicapper has it covered. one thing to add is they are tinkering with her, tongue tie, wind op even though she has finished 2nd on her last 3 runs, 253 days since.

FAIR KATE ...rated 111 is much the same as MW, the newb win looked good but overall form says handicapper on top.

LLANTARA .. Finished well behind FK at newb but ran a good 2nd over c/d (heavy) before a not so good run at exet, so on soft today you might see some hope off 110 but form is a little inconsistent and 275 since she ran.

NORTHERN PRINCESS... Has already run twice recently so she should be fit enough and having won a little novice was thrown into a listed race at hay where she was a respectable 6th just behind EARLY MORNING RAIN who was rated in the high 120s (level weights) so clearly you could argue she is well in here off 108 but back to those 2 races this season she has only run ok but nothing to recommend her today unless we consider that softer ground might help but also she might be better over 20f. not ruled out.

PEACE PREVAILS...First thing i spotted was 3 wins at epsom albeit fairly low grade, started her jumps career with a decent 3rd behind COURTANDBAULD now rated 141, also had QULOOB behind 117 so a fairly hopeful start, her 2nd run so finish 2nd behind PISGAH PIKE 129 where she was easily outpaced and receiving 14lbs from the winner. She then won her maiden back at plum in sft/ gd to sft in places, again looked fairly slow to my eye but maybe the softer ground was a help, her mark of 106 might be a bit low so she must be a player.

VERENIA....won a couple of poor races and handicapper raised her accordingly but she has been bad in her latest efforts and another coming back after a break.

AMELIAS DANCE ran ok on her southwell seasonal debut having pulled early, followed with an ok 2nd at plum but poor lto so hard to see she is improving and her mark of 96 probably correct.

Conclusions ...reading back through what i've written it appears PEACE PREVAILS will have to be my choice with NORTHERN PRINCESS the big danger if there's enough pace but hopefully nothing here will influence anyone to bet.
 
My only comment I can add T tacker is it's a series qualifier, so an 8th place will gain you entry to the final at Haydock.

It simply complicates matters as betting point of view. With only 7 runners here, I'd guess they will qualify if they complete.

There is a bonus for winning the final and a qualifier, so a likely progressive type might be worth a look.

I'm sure mlmrob mlmrob can put some meat on the bones of the event, as google tells me little.
 

markfinn

Sire
My only comment I can add T tacker is it's a series qualifier, so an 8th place will gain you entry to the final at Haydock.

It simply complicates matters as betting point of view. With only 7 runners here, I'd guess they will qualify if they complete.

There is a bonus for winning the final and a qualifier, so a likely progressive type might be worth a look.

I'm sure mlmrob mlmrob can put some meat on the bones of the event, as google tells me little.
I looked into it a little bit before posting the race - could not see any real pitfalls



- some these are just run of the mill races for run of the mill horses and although some may already have qualified does that mean that they are not decent gamble or win proposition for the owners. The auto qualification factor here might well mean that some are out for a fat trimming run but how would we know, the market might be an indicator as to intent.

Yesterday we saw Bristol D May win in what looks to be his summit (also got the preferred conditions) - class ceilings and the fact that can any improve or have to improve to win is the gauge.
 
I think you have hit the same problem as me markfinn markfinn

The links are for previous years and not for the 2020-21 season.

Last years final never took place, but I think there is an OR ceiling.

You are right about the fact there is nothing to stop a punt just on this race.

I actually view the tt and wind op as a positive for the fav.
 

markfinn

Sire
I think you have hit the same problem as me markfinn markfinn

The links are for previous years and not for the 2020-21 season.

Last years final never took place, but I think there is an OR ceiling.

You are right about the fact there is nothing to stop a punt just on this race.

I actually view the tt and wind op as a positive for the fav.
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

I did find


Also some press releases about Southern Trainers farming the races - cannot find those now
 
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