• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

UKBF Common Race

I'm a mug punter with the jumps but even thoough it's a class race, I'm really attracted to Defi Du Seuil in the 2.25, even though stable form is still a worry.

2.44 in a 4 runner race is better than I expected, although the fact he was beaten at 2/5 lto in this years Champion Chase will steer punters away, plus the fact the whole field are G1 chase winners.

I'm simply taken the view the horse simly wasn't right that day.

Won the race last year off 3lb less, beat top level chasers in novice division ( beaten by Lostintranslation a 171 chaser) and his heavy ground win was against Un De Sceaux off levels another 170 horse.
 
Last edited:

tacker

Mare
2.25
How does the younger 2m generation stack up against the present lot ? Hard to judge but a small point is that last years arkle was quicker than the queen mother chase, PUT THE KETTLE ON gets 10lb from DEFI today which might be enough to sway me but how bad will the ground be ?
 
How does the younger 2m generation stack up against the present lot ? Hard to judge but a small point is that last years arkle was quicker than the queen mother chase, PUT THE KETTLE ON gets 10lb from DEFI today which might be enough to sway me but how bad will the ground be ?

Different days and field size @ tacker and DDS was "never travelling"

Put The Kettle is the obvious one in terms of progression, but's worth the comparison you make re the two races; DDS run when he bombed was still officially stronger than PTKO's performance.

A bigger concern for me was the run of Sporting John who bombed last week in a novice chase, who also bombed at Cheltenham.
 
BALLYANDY has everything going for him here imo but just wish trainer had put up a claimer.

I totally agree with your comment T tacker .

He clearly looks the best in here, but 154 in this race is a tough ask for a 9yo. and the claim would have made perfect sense.

A mark that high you would really be looking at a younger potential Champion hurdle horse.

The big upside is the fact it looks a weak Greatwood, with only one Nicholl's runner and a couple of Alan Kings in the field, who tends to be far cuter with their horse placement/preperation.

best of luck
 

tacker

Mare
I totally agree with your comment T tacker .

He clearly looks the best in here, but 154 in this race is a tough ask for a 9yo. and the claim would have made perfect sense.

A mark that high you would really be looking at a younger potential Champion hurdle horse.

The big upside is the fact it looks a weak Greatwood, with only one Nicholl's runner and a couple of Alan Kings in the field, who tends to be far cuter with their horse placement/preperation.

best of luck
doomster doomster yes the point you make about this being a weak greatwood is sound and that's probably why the top weights come into it, what i would add is really deep ground and they really need to go in it.
Shame we haven't had more input.
 
Last edited:
I've just had a play around with the Greatwood on soft .

7 of the 8 runnings went to on OR band of 136 to 145.

Interestly the 2 King and Nicholls horses fall into that band, plus Cornier and Hunters Call
 

tacker

Mare
1.30 market rasen

This is a decent race and well worth a bit if scrutiny imo.

I will mention just 2 horses, first GLINGER FLAME who has won his last 4 races over hurdles, all at hexham on gd or gd - sft. I thought he was winning with a bit in hand last time but it became a little close, now up to 135 and going right handed it might be tougher but could go close.

The other one that interest me is COOLANLY who mixed it with some good novices inc a win over PYM 2 yrs ago, his last hdl run was a cl1 handicap chep and has run in nov ch since and winning the last of them in oct, they have put a 7lb claimer on top today so carries 10.13 and because he might be better suited to this longer dist is slightly preferred.
 

mick

Sire
Have just noticed no race for today so thought i would offer the below. I actually posted it elsewhere on the forum on Wen afternoon which proved a mistake in respect that the 10/1 taken at the time had improved to 14/1 with some this morning. The animal is currently a general 11/1 and i suspect this is a betting stable so probably not a positive but fortunately stranger things do happen.

Fri 20th Newc 6.15 : Captain Jameson @ 10/1

A 6 fur 0-85 with 14 run. I backed Jameson twice during the flat season and as he has not won for two years and is now on a losing run of 20 my initial reaction was BLA but another proper look triggered more positive thoughts which subject to price might cause me to give him a third and final chance. Currently i am thinking 10/1 would enable.

Lto was his first attempt over this CD and his 2.75 len 3rd of 12 under 9-9 while nothing to crow about in a 0-75 was at least the closest he has come to winning this year and he did earn favorable RI comment " didn't have the race run to suit but he was putting in some good work at the finish. It was only his fourth try on the AW and his first visit at this track, and it's easy to see him doing better here off a stronger gallop".

Then i had a look at the numbers because he runs here under a winsome 8-9. His two previous turf Hcap wins where both in this 0-85 grade and he carried 9-2 and 9-3. Above this weight he is 0-16 and above this grade 0-19 both of which account for 19 of the current LR 20 with the other one being over 7 fur with all of his previous wins coming at 6 fur. He also contests off an OR 13lbs lower than at this time last year.

He shows clear top off my ratings @ +2 but this was obtained from a turf run not a situation i like but an aspect i have been looking at more favorably recently. I note a previous win during Nov and he is proven in these larger Fields. His 7 box is probably not ideal but the five most recent 14 rn contests have included winners from stalls 5 8 8 so i can live with this.

The stables 41 ytd winners inc 5 at Newc and as mentioned recently although i do not tend to have Fav jockeys i am seldom uneasy when Jason Hart is on top. I note his min is 8-7 so he will carry no lead. I have just had a little grin because attempting these longer write ups is in part an aid to convincing myself and this one is a good example as i started with the BLA thought which has now progressed to a reasonable case to be made on balance.

WH have just opened @ the required 10/1 so snagging some of this will do for starters.
 
As mentioned on another thread, I'm finding it difficut to get a grasp on the pace/ draw angles at the track and probably best to ignore any percieved bias at the moment.

I took a look at the race, but the only bet I tried to get on was @Micks Captain Jameson @ 18.0, which never got matched .

I will check back pre race and have another try, but another couple had my attention.

Call Me Ginger could be well treated here and is a double figure price.

Returns to C&D off 82, having been beaten by Deep Intruige over C&D in conditions race . It looked a major cock up on 2nd run,, 170 bf sp and just getting beat by a solid 94 OR horse.

Goldie actually said after the race:
Call Me Ginger was a wee bit flattered because of the elements, there was a headwind and he was played late. But that was only his second run and he's from a nice family - Jim Goldie, trainer.

The horse had a break and came out and won a maiden off a break. The horse has since run 11 times on turf without a win but OR has dropped 87 to 82 and he certainly could be a better horse on this surface and does tend to be held up.

Dawson last rode the horse with a 5lb claim, so it's an obvious worry . Their hand has been forced as Dawson is riding Fantasy Keeper who he won on lto.

The other pick does get the claimer 1st time up flag, with Tyler Heard 3/7 for the trainer ( same horse all wins), who also rides Medicine Jack for the trainer in a later 6f contest.

Dandys Gold won on first run for the trainer early this year over C&D/ same class off a generous 76, by a decent 2.5 lths. That seemed a moderate event at the time but the 2nd was in form and rattled off a hatrick afterwards and a 12lb hike.

He has since run with credit at this track twice; over 8f in a 15k contest and 2nd over over C&D in the same class as today.

If the 7lb claim does assist, off the same mark, she should be in the mix.

I can see more than half the field struugling to get cover from the start and there will be hard luck involved.

I will cover all three horses, as they all appear to be double digits on the exchange.
 
Top