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UKBF Common Race

T tacker
don't know any software engineeres etc but how does anyone become a "racing expert" ? - specialise in a small area and live it day in day out
How many people would bet based mainly on someone else's opinion ? - most - its why most dont get anywhere
Lets say you did your own speed figures, could you still be influenced by what a "form reader" might think ? or a "data cleaner"? - Only if you allow it to - not reading others stuff will help sort that one out
The other day i was searching for any p/l threads on here but was surprised how few there were, or that were visable to everybody yet on a betting forum you might expect such things to be part and parcel of how a forum might function..................or not. - Unless you are trading it must be impossible to bet every day and and show a profit - for me the forum is intended for discussion not tipping or a pissing contest. The un viewable parts of the forum that perhaps I can see and some others not, would not help any one to find the magic key as there is none.

If you listen to the podcast I put up the other day - you will get some under standing of the problems facing both punters and traders - simply put - you have to put the hours in - whilst at the same time cut the number of bets - I suppose its called work
 
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Chesham

Sire
Forget Spades and look for Diamonds would be my advice.

Diamonds are usually hidden but often come together in a cluster.

Three Filters will get you the same results , (Hard Work or perhaps not) Find a Trainer who slips a few in under the radar and the Money is on and rarely left behind.

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Last one to run

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There is some discussion regarding the racing post is it doomed as printed page offering ? - is digital the way to go - It has a very limited readership does anyone on here buy it and read it any one read the digital offering other than the cards.

Personally I dont - in general the comments (include TV) and articles are usually forced and little more than a knee jerk reaction to a microphone stuffed unexpectedly into their face - is there any value in following such comment - I find trainers and jockeys comments stable tours - lists etc of Ten to follow, banal at best.

There is surely more value in the data bases where you can ask your own question's and see if the truth is borne out in the evidence of results.
 
I hadn't heard of this term "teams" , probably the only one on here not know about them, O Outlander points me in the direction of Tony Bloom and others so we can be sure it's the case and i for one find it interesting.

mick mick I have found MY MUDDLE , will read it later, thanks.

markfinn markfinn ...Not sure i've understood most of that but tipping is like a pissing contest....really?
Dont know what not to understand

P/L is a pissing contest - no one know whats happens of page - little point posting loads of miniscule odds winners with high SR and then betting randomly in private
 

mick

Sire
There is some discussion regarding the racing post is it doomed as printed page offering ? - is digital the way to go - It has a very limited readership does anyone on here buy it and read it any one read the digital offering other than the cards.
I have not bought a copy for years, and long prior to going on line my opinion was that the content and presentation was lacking when compared to The Sporting Life. Current times i have read that it is only the sales to the betting shops which keep the paper in business. My concern is RI which is also owned by the RP group.
 
(Hard Work or perhaps not)
Agree with this it is a nice summation of the fact - we have to "direct the work - eventually that is" - the important thing is to get into the work / study , even if its in the wrong direction initially - got to start some where - or one could just follow your class ratings - time form etc but then when we win, we dont know why ,equally , when we lose we dont know why and just get disheartened and blame the rating's.

Unfortunately there is no other way other than digging deep in that respect the data bases can make it worse - if you dont know the value of the questions how do you know the value of the answers.

Personally without the having done a shit load of reading(luckily for me that's not a chore) coupled to years of messing about creating ratings, I doubt that the data bases would help.

Once you know the question the data base will help and even show the value of the idea either through SR P/L etc , even so, the best data base cannot see into the future.

As with most things worth doing, there are so many aspects to take in and not many worthwhile shortcuts.
 

Chesham

Sire
I’ve worked in a team In the past ,for around six months (Around 5 in the team) and a Google Doc Page was set up and we each downloaded separate data to the sheet. It was a Pedigree Study using various aspects. It cut the individual research work down considerably as we all took different areas reseach, and then added the data to sheet. .

One area was the cost of mating with certain sires. Often a mare who for instance has produced a first progeny with a not too expensive sire will be mated Next Time with a more expensive sire fee.
I really enjoyed working with others to arrive at conclusion as to which were important areas to consider with Pedigree Handicapping .


For a Team to be successful you need a group of people who are keen to share their knowledge and accept the knowledge that others have.

Teams can work very well and partly why mlmrob mlmrob and myself created The Blog as we have a group of individuals who have their own knowledge base, that is unique to them. None want to be seen as the greatest punter ever seen, and support each other with encouragement. Wagering on horses is a long game . To quote lyrics from ”“Wear Sunscreen “

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tacker

Gelding
Dont know what not to understand

P/L is a pissing contest - no one know whats happens of page - little point posting loads of miniscule odds winners with high SR and then betting randomly in private
markfinn markfinn
I've never heard p/l threads or tipping referred to in this way before but i do take your point in how it might be percieved, at the back of my mind is the idea that putting up a selection with some reasoning behind it might well fall into the same category, in that there is some gratification in being right..... or so i've heard.
 
at the back of my mind is the idea that putting up a selection with some reasoning behind it might well fall into the same category, in that there is some gratification in being right..... or so i've heard.
If forum members want to post - Black Jack 2.30 Newcastle fair enough but why would they ? and who would be interested - surely its better to work through a race and post the working that lead to a conclusion - you never know one day someone might point out why they dont think that you have reached the correct conclusion, or point to a better way of using the data - no matter the race result win or lose - the lads that post the workings win every every time because while posting they are also checking their work and sometimes ( no matter how good they are at the game) even learning from themself's how best to do it or spot a new trend etc.

There is no gratification from posting Black Jack 2.30 Newcastle - if it wins for you great whats your next trick - because more than likely the next one will lose and then where are you - who do you blame - the pin

What is your Modus Operandi how do you find your selections ?

Its one thing to be pessimistic, but totally another to be constantly negative.
 
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GLYCERINE

Yearling
Thanks for posting the video, I enjoyed it. If horses, like greyhounds, were given stalls according to running styles and preferences then on a fair course without much bias, in a small to average size field, the result might truly mirror a horses actual ability. assuming too, that all the horses were at, or very close to, peak fitness. Assuming too that there were no hard luck stories in the race and all jockeys were competent and did not underperform. That would give a baseline of ability, assuming too, the horses were all fully matured. Would that be a race worth study? Or could you take it as read, at face value.

Within each race there might be several mini races develop which might provide similar study. taking a performance based upon the horse around them with similar luck in running and equally advantaged or disadvantaged by the draw and how the race was run.
I guess though, that in the search for value its the horses that for whatever reason are better than they show that are of interest. Maybe through simply maturing, becoming experienced or through the vagaries of races and race riding.

The biggest trap in racing is the notion of a horse repeating a performance given, as far as one can tell the same conditions. They are always overbet. The truth is, we don't know all the variables, and the most important one, 'How does the horse feel' is an unknown. If I drank six pints, wore carpet slippers, had a meat pie and a packet of crisps and won a darts tourney at the Nags Head on Friday night, there is more chance of me tripping over than repeating the feat, the following Friday, even if the conditions are to all intents and purposes, the same.

HT makes the point that you can't make money backing the obvious, on the other hand some tipsters make a point of supporting the non obvious.....if a horse has just taken a heavy fall when fancied in the last race, its a sounder bet, pricewise next time out. The search for value makes for some strange bets. You could make money backing a true 180/1 horse at 200/1 in the long run, but you would need a strong stomach and deep pockets. There is value to be found in novice chasers that fall as they learn, but there's something odd about backing bad jumpers, up to now, in a jumping contest. Therein, I think lies the appeal of systems, they force you to follow the profits, devoid of sentiment. Doesn't have to be a system for horses, can be your own personal management that needs systemising, (think of JP's claim about no betting after a big setback). Only a system coud force someone to consistently back huge longshots and serial fallers. My favourite system is to back longstanding 12yr old maidens on the grounds that the long suffering owners need a win before the horse retires or dies. But only if its over 100/1 and ridden by a lady amateur, I have not had a selection yet but its only a matter of time.

The same principle of value based on race analysis goes hand in hand with all the other stuff they referred to in the piece, trainer and jockey, training methods race planning etc etc. If you were doing it seriously its very hard. The reason people specialize is because there's too much to look at. In specializing you make the work manageable, but as HT implies, you miss chances to profit. That maybe is the driving force for team based approaches. The Timeform 'Jury' has had horrendous losing streaks and that's the result of a collegiate approach. It is food for thought.

HT is a really expert racereader, much the best available for the ordinary punter, his preferred battleground is not for me. AW is made for 'unlucky in running' stories and he is pre-eminent in exploiting that. Good luck to anyone following his methods, you will certainly strain your eyesight, enlarge your middle and shorten your life. Its a strange way to enjoy a hobby and there are easier jobs...writing for one, as HT alludes to. Why do 99.9% of 'pro punters' change to punditry....it pays better. You don't have to worry about getting the money on and a pension.

Thanks again, it demonstrates another truism....the backroom anoraks are better than the pro pundits. HT over KB all day long.
 

Chesham

Sire
Thanks for posting the video, I enjoyed it. If horses, like greyhounds, were given stalls according to running styles and preferences then on a fair course without much bias, in a small to average size field, the result might truly mirror a horses actual ability. assuming too, that all the horses were at, or very close to, peak fitness. Assuming too that there were no hard luck stories in the race and all jockeys were competent and did not underperform. That would give a baseline of ability, assuming too, the horses were all fully matured. Would that be a race worth study? Or could you take it as read, at face value.

Within each race there might be several mini races develop which might provide similar study. taking a performance based upon the horse around them with similar luck in running and equally advantaged or disadvantaged by the draw and how the race was run.
I guess though, that in the search for value its the horses that for whatever reason are better than they show that are of interest. Maybe through simply maturing, becoming experienced or through the vagaries of races and race riding.

The biggest trap in racing is the notion of a horse repeating a performance given, as far as one can tell the same conditions. They are always overbet. The truth is, we don't know all the variables, and the most important one, 'How does the horse feel' is an unknown. If I drank six pints, wore carpet slippers, had a meat pie and a packet of crisps and won a darts tourney at the Nags Head on Friday night, there is more chance of me tripping over than repeating the feat, the following Friday, even if the conditions are to all intents and purposes, the same.

HT makes the point that you can't make money backing the obvious, on the other hand some tipsters make a point of supporting the non obvious.....if a horse has just taken a heavy fall when fancied in the last race, its a sounder bet, pricewise next time out. The search for value makes for some strange bets. You could make money backing a true 180/1 horse at 200/1 in the long run, but you would need a strong stomach and deep pockets. There is value to be found in novice chasers that fall as they learn, but there's something odd about backing bad jumpers, up to now, in a jumping contest. Therein, I think lies the appeal of systems, they force you to follow the profits, devoid of sentiment. Doesn't have to be a system for horses, can be your own personal management that needs systemising, (think of JP's claim about no betting after a big setback). Only a system coud force someone to consistently back huge longshots and serial fallers. My favourite system is to back longstanding 12yr old maidens on the grounds that the long suffering owners need a win before the horse retires or dies. But only if its over 100/1 and ridden by a lady amateur, I have not had a selection yet but its only a matter of time.

The same principle of value based on race analysis goes hand in hand with all the other stuff they referred to in the piece, trainer and jockey, training methods race planning etc etc. If you were doing it seriously its very hard. The reason people specialize is because there's too much to look at. In specializing you make the work manageable, but as HT implies, you miss chances to profit. That maybe is the driving force for team based approaches. The Timeform 'Jury' has had horrendous losing streaks and that's the result of a collegiate approach. It is food for thought.

HT is a really expert racereader, much the best available for the ordinary punter, his preferred battleground is not for me. AW is made for 'unlucky in running' stories and he is pre-eminent in exploiting that. Good luck to anyone following his methods, you will certainly strain your eyesight, enlarge your middle and shorten your life. Its a strange way to enjoy a hobby and there are easier jobs...writing for one, as HT alludes to. Why do 99.9% of 'pro punters' change to punditry....it pays better. You don't have to worry about getting the money on and a pension.

Thanks again, it demonstrates another truism....the backroom anoraks are better than the pro pundits. HT over KB all day long.
Mark Littlewood did A really good analysis of Hugh Taylor . Scroll down to the 5th <arch Entry and scroll upwards after reading

Sentiment Analysis and Hugh Taylor – Make Your Betting Pay
 

Samacas

Mare
There is some discussion regarding the racing post is it doomed as printed page offering ? - is digital the way to go - It has a very limited readership does anyone on here buy it and read it any one read the digital offering other than the cards
I was always a Sporting Life man, could never get on with RP. The online version just slows the computer too much without an ad blocker so only use the cards if absolutely necessary(which its not), and rarely look at anything else.
 
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