• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

UKBF Common Race

mick

Sire
OnTheNod OnTheNod "my luck" has proved fine on balance and my "still at it" comment was down to my self critical sense of humor, Re the other stuff tbf i have tried but you have me beat, because i cannot understand your explanations which tend to read as generalizations. Perhaps my bad but also frustrating. ! Look at how the other members contributing to this thread go about it and you may understand my confusion Re your own.
 

OnTheNod

Gelding
OnTheNod OnTheNod "my luck" has proved fine on balance and my "still at it" comment was down to my self critical sense of humor, Re the other stuff tbf i have tried but you have me beat, because i cannot understand your explanations which tend to read as generalizations. Perhaps my bad but also frustrating. ! Look at how the other members contributing to this thread go about it and you may understand my confusion Re your own.
I cant put it any clearer mick mick a horse won on the course and distance, has equal weight today and in the same class must have a chance of doing the same again, at least one has some proof of events that have taken place in this world if you like.
 

markfinn

Sire
It is a game that constantly knocks you down and that's fine as we all expect it. But it is the success of this thread that so many want to share their way with others, it is a fantastic learning curve.

To learn, read; to understand, participate.
Well we are see further from others shoulders. Yours in particular
 

mick

Sire
I cant put it any clearer mick mick a horse won on the course and distance, has equal weight today and in the same class must have a chance of doing the same again.
This is why clarity becomes the straighter because although both races where class 6 Thur was a 0-65 Hcap but the winners only previous win came in a 0-50 Classified stakes. This was one of several reasons why i mentioned that pre race i could not case its chance despite its CD form. You mentioned it showed top off your form ratings was it that 26Oct19 run which provided your rating. ? When i asked my question these where the sort of detailed answers i was hoping for to enable me to understand and learn from your thinking.

Fair dues to another member who wrote up the chance pre race when the animal was 8/1 and if you read he gave six clear reasons why he was backing it. Similar from any member would not trigger any questions because there would be no need. It did earn this from myself and i look forward to feeling able to offer the same to you.

1581744444491.png
 
Last edited:

tacker

Gelding
3.50 hayd

Iv'e always been a sucker for horses making their handicap debuts and WELSH SAINT fits that criteria today, his 15L win over some detail in heavy ground was given a little boost when that horse ran a decent 2nd last saturday. At first WS 3rd at chelts might seem a little disappointing but it was a listed nov hdl and the front two have boosted the form since and i'm hoping today's heavy ground and up to 3mile will be the key.
Out to 4/1 now which still doesn't appeal that much but just about fair......i think.

I'll leave the other runners to others but do just wonder about the fav PORTRUSH TED on this ground.
 

markfinn

Sire
True markfinn markfinn but at this level we are always guessing in iffs and buts, trying to second guess what connections are thinking is a nightmare but the other enemy is stats, here the problem is whether you can simply have faith or check them out
For me - The only stats worth bothering with the are BHA OR Trainer and SR history - the rest as mlmrob mlmrob and mick show is interpretation of any intent
 

markfinn

Sire
Sundays Target

1581785225811.png

4:30
32RED.COM HANDICAP (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-85) Winner £6,469 10 runners 6f Standard To Slow RTV (STALLS Inside)
RACE CONDITIONS £11,600 guaranteed For 4yo+ Rated 71-85 (also open to such horses rated 86 and 87; such horses rated 70 and below are also eligible - see Standard Conditions) Weights highest weight 9st 7lb Minimum weights: 8-7; Penalties after February 8th, each race won, 4-6yo 5lb; 7yo+ 4lb Count Otto's Handicap Mark 85 Entries 16 pay £50 Penalty value 1st £6,469.00 2nd £1,925.00 3rd £962.00 4th £481.00 5th £400.00 6th £400.00 7th £400.00 8th £400.00

10 runners with lots of form to look at
 

markfinn

Sire
What a race - Successful trainers and Jockey in yellow many of the horses have go to jockeys up

1581845685396.png
I have it has trainer stat dominated race and but with so many CD and multiple same trained winners I would need to write all up and simply dont have the time today

Fall back on the stats - the OR Count Otto 4lbin and dropped in class - Eldajaaaf 8lb well in bigger drop in class - SW weight all are about right Count Ottos has further 5lb - The Lamplighter 7lb - Martineo 3lb with claimers up

1581845835373.png

Dslr - Sparkalot and Lamplighter have both been absent for longer than normal - Eljaddaaf is fastest returner (from average DSLR)
Distance Prince of Wales is better at 5F - Lamplighter & this 6F may well be a bit too sharp
Future Plans Count Otto - Treacherous -Venture all have next races all ready booked

I backed [Count Otto Last night and perhaps that was a mistake but for me he has the most positives going into this race - his is the worst draw but the Jockey knows the course and the horse has placed 2nd from same draw I/V stat as today - what ever you choose to do today good luck

1581846677704.png
 

Attachments

Last edited:
For thr 4.30 at Kempton my selections are:

Count Otto @ 9/1 (1 point each way)

Positives:
* Course and Distance Winner
* Trainer is decent form
* Down in class
* Jockey gains 5 pounds

Things to Consider:
* Is the horse on the downgrade or trying to get back to a winning mark?


Busby @ 7/2 (1 point to win)

Positives:
* Down 1lb since his last run (where he finished 3rd at this track)
* Down in class for today’s race
* Down in distance from 7f to 6f today. Does 6f suit better?
* Jockey in decent form
* Course and Distance Winner

Things to Consider:
* Trainer form (0-3 in last 14 days)

Goodluck!
 
Top