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UKBF Common Race

mick

Sire
@OnTheNod "my luck" has proved fine on balance and my "still at it" comment was down to my self critical sense of humor, Re the other stuff tbf i have tried but you have me beat, because i cannot understand your explanations which tend to read as generalizations. Perhaps my bad but also frustrating. ! Look at how the other members contributing to this thread go about it and you may understand my confusion Re your own.
 

OnTheNod

Gelding
@OnTheNod "my luck" has proved fine on balance and my "still at it" comment was down to my self critical sense of humor, Re the other stuff tbf i have tried but you have me beat, because i cannot understand your explanations which tend to read as generalizations. Perhaps my bad but also frustrating. ! Look at how the other members contributing to this thread go about it and you may understand my confusion Re your own.
I cant put it any clearer @mick a horse won on the course and distance, has equal weight today and in the same class must have a chance of doing the same again, at least one has some proof of events that have taken place in this world if you like.
 

mick

Sire
I cant put it any clearer @mick a horse won on the course and distance, has equal weight today and in the same class must have a chance of doing the same again.
This is why clarity becomes the straighter because although both races where class 6 Thur was a 0-65 Hcap but the winners only previous win came in a 0-50 Classified stakes. This was one of several reasons why i mentioned that pre race i could not case its chance despite its CD form. You mentioned it showed top off your form ratings was it that 26Oct19 run which provided your rating. ? When i asked my question these where the sort of detailed answers i was hoping for to enable me to understand and learn from your thinking.

Fair dues to another member who wrote up the chance pre race when the animal was 8/1 and if you read he gave six clear reasons why he was backing it. Similar from any member would not trigger any questions because there would be no need. It did earn this from myself and i look forward to feeling able to offer the same to you.

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tacker

Colt
3.50 hayd

Iv'e always been a sucker for horses making their handicap debuts and WELSH SAINT fits that criteria today, his 15L win over some detail in heavy ground was given a little boost when that horse ran a decent 2nd last saturday. At first WS 3rd at chelts might seem a little disappointing but it was a listed nov hdl and the front two have boosted the form since and i'm hoping today's heavy ground and up to 3mile will be the key.
Out to 4/1 now which still doesn't appeal that much but just about fair......i think.

I'll leave the other runners to others but do just wonder about the fav PORTRUSH TED on this ground.
 
True @markfinn but at this level we are always guessing in iffs and buts, trying to second guess what connections are thinking is a nightmare but the other enemy is stats, here the problem is whether you can simply have faith or check them out
For me - The only stats worth bothering with the are BHA OR Trainer and SR history - the rest as @mlmrob and mick show is interpretation of any intent
 
Sundays Target

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4:30
32RED.COM HANDICAP (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-85) Winner £6,469 10 runners 6f Standard To Slow RTV (STALLS Inside)
RACE CONDITIONS £11,600 guaranteed For 4yo+ Rated 71-85 (also open to such horses rated 86 and 87; such horses rated 70 and below are also eligible - see Standard Conditions) Weights highest weight 9st 7lb Minimum weights: 8-7; Penalties after February 8th, each race won, 4-6yo 5lb; 7yo+ 4lb Count Otto's Handicap Mark 85 Entries 16 pay £50 Penalty value 1st £6,469.00 2nd £1,925.00 3rd £962.00 4th £481.00 5th £400.00 6th £400.00 7th £400.00 8th £400.00

10 runners with lots of form to look at
 
What a race - Successful trainers and Jockey in yellow many of the horses have go to jockeys up

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I have it has trainer stat dominated race and but with so many CD and multiple same trained winners I would need to write all up and simply dont have the time today

Fall back on the stats - the OR Count Otto 4lbin and dropped in class - Eldajaaaf 8lb well in bigger drop in class - SW weight all are about right Count Ottos has further 5lb - The Lamplighter 7lb - Martineo 3lb with claimers up

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Dslr - Sparkalot and Lamplighter have both been absent for longer than normal - Eljaddaaf is fastest returner (from average DSLR)
Distance Prince of Wales is better at 5F - Lamplighter & this 6F may well be a bit too sharp
Future Plans Count Otto - Treacherous -Venture all have next races all ready booked

I backed [Count Otto Last night and perhaps that was a mistake but for me he has the most positives going into this race - his is the worst draw but the Jockey knows the course and the horse has placed 2nd from same draw I/V stat as today - what ever you choose to do today good luck

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For thr 4.30 at Kempton my selections are:

Count Otto @ 9/1 (1 point each way)

Positives:
* Course and Distance Winner
* Trainer is decent form
* Down in class
* Jockey gains 5 pounds

Things to Consider:
* Is the horse on the downgrade or trying to get back to a winning mark?


Busby @ 7/2 (1 point to win)

Positives:
* Down 1lb since his last run (where he finished 3rd at this track)
* Down in class for today’s race
* Down in distance from 7f to 6f today. Does 6f suit better?
* Jockey in decent form
* Course and Distance Winner

Things to Consider:
* Trainer form (0-3 in last 14 days)

Goodluck!
 
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