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UKBF Common Race

Chavari little to go on and Sire stats not much help 1st run since wind op – is it case of getting the test out the way and seeing if it has worked , if so doubt they will be exerting to much on the horse today.
Chiavari had a wind op. four races ago !!??
 
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mlmrob

Sire
Three Cs record off marks above 51 reads 0-20 with two places.

Equidae has a couple of placed efforts off 65 on turf in the summer and a win over course and distance a year ago off the same which would suggest she looks a good thing off 58. However, I am not so sure as her yard are going through a rough patch at present, 0-51 in 2020. 15 have placed but not for me.

Crazy Spin is 3-6 over this course and distance when she is drawn in the lowest half of the draw, 2-3 under Jason Hart. All three wins have come in 0-55 whilst her record in 0-60 reads 0-6 with two places, bewten 3.5ls and beaten half a length. Both were off lower marks than today. Jason Hart is the 'go to' jockey for Furtado this season 5-15.

Double Reflection is going to find this much easier than trying keep up with 68 rated Double Martini but she has finished in front of two horses rated 69 and 66. The BHA Performance Figures for that race are not in but she did run to a mark of 60 in his previous race when fifth, beaten 2ls, in a 0-60. She is on a long losing run but she has dropped 10lbs since joining Mick Appleby and she has to be thereabouts.

Chiavari has the look of a horse that connections are clueless about. She is by Born To Sea whose progeny are 1-29 on the fibresand and are 1-84 over 8f on the synthetics.

Muqarred is 5-24 over 8f at Southwell. He has had a dozen races for Karen Tutty winning a 0-60 off 57 in September and he has a second in a 0-70 off 65 behind 69 rated Awa Bomba. Muqarred was noted staying on over 7f the other day at Southwell in a 0-60. Karen's horses are just coming into form after having the gallop relaid in January.

Conclusion: The key here is the pace angle. It is possible that Double Reflection will get a solo on the front end. If that is the case it is going to take a mega performance to peg the mare back. Muqarred is another who could run really well and one of those two looks the most likely and if pushed Double Reflection would be the selection.
 
Good post.

I agree Double - is my top rated and the trainer will know that the going will not hinder - hope I have not talked myself out the winner as have done so in the past . The die has been cast now so too late to change if I wanted to. Furtado knows what it takes to win here and I think the horse is proven and progressive . Good luck to all that invest in the race
 

OnTheNod

Gelding
Dont think any one had ??? View attachment 81844

mick said:


Great to see this thread on fire and just a polite reminder that it should not always be on Mark to choose the days common race. I have one of interest for this evening. I posted the below on another part of the forum when backing the horse yesterday afternoon. The price and value have now gone but with 13 run the race gives plenty of options for members alternative views and selections.

Thur 13th Chelm 8.30 : Bayston Hill @ 18/1

A 10 fur 0-65 with 13 run. This 6yo was my only possible on the day and tbh i have been blowing hot and cold Re his prospects for the past 48 hrs, but i have now been seduced by the price which aval at BOG odds is better than anticipated and has forced the bet. Lto Bayston ran a mare but returning off a 160 day break with 10.0 to hump and minus the CPs which were used for his most recent win then i suspect that was the intention. This has bought him a 1lb OR reduction to 66 which enables him to sneak in this 0-65 under 9-8 which is the lowest weight possible when taking advantage of this situation. My +2 rating is obtained from his 2lto CD run and suggests a repeat of this would make him the winner here.

He is well proven in these larger field contests with three previous wins in same. His CD score is 1-3 with the two losing runs being a 2nd and 3rd all of which show positive off my numbers, and he has proved his weight carrying ability by winning a 0-70 under 9-8. Another aspect i like is a past win off the back of a poor lto run, and this will be his first drop to a 0-65 grade at a course he appears to like. As ever there are negatives involved with his 13-13 draw being one, but while the stats show this is not helpful they also evidence that it has been done and my records remind me that Dec 2018 i backed Ertidaad won 20/1 when drawn 15-15 and this also helps.

The trainer shows a poor 0-28 Ytd but works with mostly moderate ammunition and it was good to note that 5 of his 15 flat winners last year came at Chelm. He has also trained Bayston to win six races a good achievement from a 13k buy. I feel no problem with the rider engaged who has done me a few good turns at bigger prices over the years, and I view as a decent journeyman type with plenty of course wins. Prob not significant but he makes the journey for just the one ride and his min 8-8 helps with the dead weight in comparison to some.

Earlier i typed a longer more detailed post which my computer then managed to delete while at the same time adding to the swear box coffers, but my perverse logic along the lines of additional efforts will surely increase the prospects of just reward led me to view this as a positive sign. Although even if Bayston obliges i have no intentions of making this part of my future MO.!

Click to expand...
That one was nearly a bet for me @mick i hope it wins for you, the reason i will be leaving it is 2 c/d winners in the race are close behind on form the way i read it with weights and lengths beaten by or won by on the track, but on breeding yours seems it has the right credentials to go close. So Good Luck!! Again.

Hi @markfinn they were my two top rated on form in the race after BH was taken out btw. I did not bet in the race because i concentrate on outsiders now could of done the r/fc though but never do those bets i use to on the greyhounds years ago.
 
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mick

Sire
Hi @markfinn they were my two top rated on form in the race after BH was taken out btw. I did not bet in the race because i concentrate on outsiders now could of done the r/fc though
Just to clarify you went from no bets pre race to having the 1st and 2nd post race. ? Even if they where not the long shots you seek i suspect many would have been pleased to read your thoughts prior to the off. Tbh i could not have made a good case for the winner or 2nd, so could you share your thinking now as i still have my notes on the race and it would be good to compare.
 
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That one was nearly a bet for me @mick i hope it wins for you, the reason i will be leaving it is 2 c/d winners in the race are close behind on form the way i read it with weights and lengths beaten by or won by on the track, but on breeding yours seems it has the right credentials to go close. So Good Luck!! Again.

Hi @markfinn they were my two top rated on form in the race after BH was taken out btw. I did not bet in the race because i concentrate on outsiders now could of done the r/fc though but never do those bets i use to on the greyhounds years ago.
The thread is about positive interaction, hopefully learning and questions posed would be answered where possible - what it is not about is pointless after timing or ridiculous claims - so please restrain from such - if anyone has an idea or thought it not much use claiming it after the fact- if on the other hand a poster gives a reason for -this or that - and in light of the result can see where he went wrong please share. Otherwise keep stum.
 

OnTheNod

Gelding
The thread is about positive interaction, hopefully learning and questions posed would be answered where possible - what it is not about is pointless after timing or ridiculous claims - so please restrain from such - if anyone has an idea or thought it not much use claiming it after the fact- if on the other hand a poster gives a reason for -this or that - and in light of the result can see where he went wrong please share. Otherwise keep stum.
Hi @markfinn i did not aftertime if you check the posts back i did post that before the race, i have said many times about courses and c/d i always use, and the lower the weight the better for my workings, if you check also both are carrying similar weights or less than they have won with before.

It does not work like it use to but is still their in patches i have found, i dont need to aftertime my methods and i have stated them over and over and yes i had all three nearly equal rates. So is class of race won, weight carried then and chances today with that weight and of course a liking for certain courses and hope for a repeat i cant be any clearer than that.

I have found with everything k.i.s.s. is best, too complex and things fail and the brain tires quickly.
 
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OnTheNod

Gelding
Just to clarify you went from no bets pre race to having the 1st and 2nd post race. ? Even if they where not the long shots you seek i suspect many would have been pleased to read your thoughts prior to the off. Tbh i could not have made a good case for the winner or 2nd, so could you share your thinking now as i still have my notes on the race and it would be good to compare.
@mick nr can bring other horses into play, you are a clever open minded fellow and have taught me loads and i hope i may of past a little on to you also, i admire anybody who can go full time like yourself it needs much bottle and time i know from experience.
 

mick

Sire
@mick nr can bring other horses into play, you are a clever open minded fellow and have taught me loads and i hope i may of past a little on to you also, i admire anybody who can go full time like yourself it needs much bottle and time i know from experience.
Well as i am now an OAP and still full time clearly not everything has gone to plan. :eek: Re teaching and learning i am always looking for the opportunity to do the latter which is why i asked if you could elaborate on your thinking Re your 1st and 2nd in yesterdays 8.30, I note you now say KISS is best which should make the thinking easier to explain when sharing on the forum.?
 
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tacker

Colt
7.45 I did have a little bit on TRANCHEE 11/1 this morning but when analysing the clock came to the conclusion that the dead heat he was involved in was a very run of the mill run at this standard or had little idea what to make of it. see now there has been money for it, don't know what to think.
 
7.45 I did have a little bit on TRANCHEE 11/1 this morning but when analysing the clock came to the conclusion that the dead heat he was involved in was a very run of the mill run at this standard or had little idea what to make of it. see now there has been money for it, don't know what to think.
The market seldom makes the idea clearer - you are left wondering who has backed or why haven't the connections backed it.
 

OnTheNod

Gelding
Well as i am now an OAP and still full time clearly not everything has gone to plan. :eek: Re teaching and learning i am always looking for the opportunity to do the latter which is why i asked if you could elaborate on your thinking Re your 1st and 2nd in yesterdays 8.30, I note you now say KISS is best which should make the thinking easier to explain when sharing on the forum.?
Yes that is what i thought a pension @mick i did it with no back up most right books and stuff like that, also i explained it simply in concise terms in my last post btw.

I have loads of collectors items i could sell off if needed, but snooker, golf and playing guitar dont cost much, and i have my training machines and weights at home here also.

I Hope Your Luck Changes Mick!! but is tough now.
 
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