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UKBF Common Race

John Whitley was being innovative when implementing his jockey rating system which was many years ago and plenty have copied since. But i think there are also other aspects in play. When a yard has no retained or regular rider it is always worth pondering why has this one been booked. I think many backers might be missing out by not looking at the 4 day decs because sometimes a rider shown as secured well in advance can prove a positive tell.
I have an Idea that I can produce best jockey by year on Proform I will try later -
 

Nellsman

Filly
Guy's,
sorry to butt in here with something off topic. I'm having a lot of trouble with Racing Post web site (not loading pages etc), Is anyone else having trouble?

Nellsman
 

mick

Sire
Guy's,
sorry to butt in here with something off topic. I'm having a lot of trouble with Racing Post web site (not loading pages etc), Is anyone else having trouble?

Nellsman
I have just tried and all OK at present but it is a frequent problem.
 

tacker

Colt
4.55 rip

Another race where it might be possible to eliminate a few...

PHILONIKA is better in at the weights with funny man but doesn't look good enough to me.
POTENZA Hard to see him winning this on his bare form but just might benefit from being raised in distance but needs to do more.
CUBA RUBA getting plkenty of weight but might need even more.

FUNNY MAN is fav and won his last 3 but i notice he has flopped at this track twice and might in any case have gone high enough with a mark 74, took a long time to get to the front lto so i will overlook him.

FIVE HELMETS Won his last 2 races so back up to 72 now and this 12f might well stretch his stamina, might be improving and there are some positives in the collateral form but falls a bit short for me.


MISTER CHIANG is solid enough at this level and can't easily be overlooked, his last run at brighton where he was bumped showed him to still be capable off 76 but his overall form suggests he might be better on quicker ground, just falls short for me.

EURO IMPLOSION.....Has crept up to a mark of 68 now and made all to win well lto, he ran really well over c/d distance behind THEATRO who i find hard to weigh up but they pulled 6L clear of a reasonable field on soft. Earlier his 3rd behind MOLL DAVIES now suggests a good run on ground that might have been a little quick but on balance i think he can win this and i've had a bit on at 3/1 but will watch the market.
 

mlmrob

Sire
VICTORY COMMAND......A more complicated approach needed i believe with this 3yr old getting the allowance and that's what sways me in his favour, this will be his 13th race this year which is typical of the stable and it started on dirt (meydan) , ran a decent 4th at goodwood lto and his overall form is well up to this imo but is another who need to prove he can act on the surface but i've always thought the allowance is a bit of a advantage at this time of year so i'll risk a few bob.

Nicley done @markfinn well deserved
 

tacker

Colt
Hi @tacker

Joe Fanning Rode Euro Implosion on his last two runs, bossed the race and today is not riding Euro Implosion today.
@Chesham Yeah! i did notice that but maybe fanning claimed by johnston or he might just prefer MC, either way fanning is used to front running and ripon suits front runners i believe so Euro might want some passing.
 

Chesham

Sire
@Chesham Yeah! i did notice that but maybe fanning claimed by johnston or he might just prefer MC, either way fanning is used to front running and ripon suits front runners i believe so Euro might want some passing.
Not a Race that I am going to have a bet in and my thoughts are irrelevant as you have already placed your bet.

Rob Morris who I thought was the best ever at creating a Tissue Price, give a set of guides that were either Positive or a Negative when pricing up a race. Change of winning Jockey was a negative .

Very little to go on stats wise, but when Fanning has won a horse for Dalgleish and then turns up in the same race as the horse NTO, only one that I can find.

Fanning Rode Sebastian’s Wish to,win in his LTO race

E3A30725-CF3A-4666-A1A9-BBB1CFE0AB88.jpeg

However, I do hope that I am proved wrong and that you collect on Euro Implosion
 

mlmrob

Sire
Ive got trends stretching back to 2010 for this race and the record of two trainers who have runners in the race today makes interesting reading. Neither had a runner in 2014.

Tim Easterby 112122

Mark Johnston 711531

Last year Mark Johnston sent Dr Richard Kimble to Brighton for the Challenge Cup over 12f and he finished third before winning this. This year Mister Chiang has followed the same path. he was 4.5ls off faylaq off levels in June over course and distance on good to soft and that would suggest a mark of 76 is very doable.

Tim Easterby hasn't won the race since 2015 but this Cuba Ruba has plot written all over him. However, maidens are 0-17 in this race so the trend compromises his and Philanika's chances.
 

mick

Sire
@Chesham your above is interesting is there any relevance in the opposite.? My bet today Sweet Pursuit two most recent runs with Oisin on top and well beaten but this evening a 3lb claimer rides, one who was also on board for the animals two most recent wins. In both cases Just coincidence or part of the plan. ?
 

mlmrob

Sire
My apologies @tacker must have been half asleep this morning. Same applies though a well deserved winner for the work you put in:handgestures-thumbup:

VICTORY COMMAND......A more complicated approach needed i believe with this 3yr old getting the allowance and that's what sways me in his favour, this will be his 13th race this year which is typical of the stable and it started on dirt (meydan) , ran a decent 4th at goodwood lto and his overall form is well up to this imo but is another who need to prove he can act on the surface but i've always thought the allowance is a bit of a advantage at this time of year so i'll risk a few bob.
 
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