UKBF Common Race - Daily Review Thread

[mick]

ARAZI91 Ethics might play an interesting part if they where challenged to both explain and justify 9.1.2 to the GC or an MP (not on the pay roll).I might send it to that decent Guardian Journalist asking his understanding.

 

[OnTheNod]

Hi Samacas i will try and help about International Law on here to save clogging up the other thread.

From what i can see and was the reason i liked to back ew back in the day, if you ignore his last run because he had failed at further before, the Windsor run is not bad form providing he acts on todays type of course and the sand, on my ratings he is 3 lbs to heavy but again if he relishes the course and sand had a chance to win.

Also on my way of selecting i would never backed any like this mind you, mainly because i like to match the elements more closely but i would of seen the possible conflict.

Hope this helps abit.

 

[Samacas]

Thanks for that OnTheNod the form was obviously better than I interpreted it. I also hadn't realised that LTO was its first run for a new trainer.

I couldn't see why footstepsinthesand , markfinn and Jackform all had it rated high enough to be a value bet. I love these lightbulb moments that remind us we're never too old to learn.

 

[mick]

The make up of the race suggested messy with those at the top of the weights found wanting, occasionally this situation can leave the door open for an improver to pounce .I call these chancer bets and fair dues i did go back for a second look at what turned out to be the winner because he could be deemed to fit this MO being the lowest weighted 4yo, but with no course previous and other questions pending there was no way i would have felt able to back him.

As Samacas rightly says we should never stop the learning,and perhaps the best lesson to glean from this one is that knowing when not to bet is half the job.I feel no interest in placing token or fun bets because where is the fun in losing.? As i recall his EP was around 11/1 so the drift to 25/1 suggests that the win may have come as a surprise to connections as well as us.A situation which happens far more often than most punters believe,or may wish to........................PS well done those who switched the posting to this thread which was set up to accommodate additional thoughts and something i need to be more aware of when lost in the moment and cluttering the main thread.!

 

[OnTheNod]

Hi! M mike 68 i see your question on the main CR thread about hrb, best maybe to answer it on here as to not to clutter it up to much.

I think it depends on what you wish to research, personally i think it is ok for lay systems and breeding systems, plus trainers systems, and also for checking trainer records and stats in certain race. The form layout for the races is good as well i like it best from all the others i have tried.

But to me its hard to find good systems with it plus it needs much fiddling about, it has taken me nearly four years so needs loads of patience also, but for form reading and stats one can use it straight off if use to doing it from the other sites. I think now it is £20 each mth so one needs to make that back for it to be viable.

 

[mick]

I have just rated yesterdays race and my numbers are shown below in the blue col (the black one is the OR).Pre race there was talk of the OH being generous by dropping My Target 7lbs in one hit ,but my figs suggest that he ran exactly to his new OR ,which underlines what good judges the Official Handicappers are (to bloody good imo).Although i would say that by scoring a better fig than the two who fin in front of him he could be deemed the moral winner at the weights.? It will prove interesting to note how the OH reacts.

Also interesting to note that none of the young guns fared well and Uncle Les & Co left it behind.! I have to conclude that had Mr Scaramanga participated he would have drifted to 16/1 challenged late and won a len. What else can you do.

 

[markfinn]

I have just rated yesterdays race and my numbers are shown below in the blue col (the black one is the OR).Pre race there was talk of the OH being generous by dropping My Target 7lbs in one hit ,but my figs suggest that he ran exactly to his new OR ,which underlines what good judges the Official Handicappers are (to bloody good imo).Although i would say that by scoring a better fig than the two who fin in front of him he could be deemed the moral winner at the weights.? It will prove interesting to note how the OH reacts.

Also interesting to note that none of the young guns fared well and Uncle Les & Co left it behind.! I have to conclude that had Mr Scaramanga participated he would have drifted to 16/1 challenged late and won a len. What else can you do.

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Morning I agree - I was without access to all this on Friday - but did it yesterday - I had NRs Mr Scaramonger 2nd and Towerlands well down
it was very tight - arn't they all - From a poor draw Francos ( best weight) Secret ran a dream and may be one to watch for

 

[ARAZI91]

I thought the Burke runner Medici Banchiere , who i highlighted , ran a promising race - once thought a useful 2yo and tried in Group level - is on a very attractive mark now and the pressing tactics used yesterday would not have suited in this race , was also 2lb out of the handicap and was not beaten that far - would be interesting if turning out in the near future - Burke usually passes on horses at this stage if he does not think they can pay their way

 

[nicksar]

The winner came from the predicted weight range but was discarded by me on age,in fact the first three home failed on the age prediction so that has given me food for thought in future, it's always a challenge trying to assess these tight HCPs....the market in the morning and right up to race time was very chaotic but that is becoming increasingly the case?.
My pick in the race was a NR so I didn't have a bet.Worth mentioning as a general point is that last year I had reduced the value I placed DSLR this year to date it is right back in the mix for me and is proving to be of value.

 

[mick]

Re this evenings race i did not participate because i had little idea,but it was sad to see Third Time finish last.!

 

[mick]

Hi nagwa i recall last Sunday when on another part of the forum you received plenty of good advice and support from members,which you appeared to like and agree with.It was mentioned about the positives of you starting a thread and sharing your thoughts and selections.I was wondering if any progress has been made concerning this.?

 

[nagwa]

Hi nagwa i recall last Sunday when on another part of the forum you received plenty of good advice and support from members,which you appeared to like and agree with.It was mentioned about the positives of you starting a thread and sharing your thoughts and selections.I was wondering if any progress has been made concerning this.?

Hi mick due to work commitments I have not been able to go over races as would prefer but hopefully will do in time thanks

 

[Chesham]

Hi mick due to work commitments I have not been able to go over races as would prefer but hopefully will do in time thanks

Some days you are on the Forum for hours at a time. You find the time to read everybody else’s contributions.why not use that time to make your own contributions.

 

[mick]

Re yesterdays race ,you can never be sure with the stable concerned but my view is that Nouvelle Ere was running brakes off and was just not up to it.The wind op not appearing to make a positive differance The RP view "Chased leaders, ridden entering final 2f, just getting outpaced and losing place when short of room over 1f out, soon switched left and driven, no impression 1f out, weakened inside final furlong "

He has plenty of miles on the clock and may have soured or just a case of age regression.(i know the feeling) ! Generally i prefer to listen to the commentary rather than watch a race ,and waiting until the off before tuning in i knew i was doomed as soon as i realized that Dear Derek was calling it.!

I heard a story recently,apparently a well known jockey bought the house next door and Tommo collared him in the garden saying " great that we are next door neighbor's" The jockey replied "not really because i will now need to buy a bigger fence".

 

[ARAZI91]

Thommo really is a buzzkill - i have noticed with these wind ops mick that sometimes it can take a few runs , just like blinkers , tongue ties etc. As usual the focus is on First time , but there might be an edge retaining some for down the line - dont know? Might do some checking. Point being that the wind op sorts the problem but lack of race fitness remains.

 

[mick]

Thommo really is a buzzkill - i have noticed with these wind ops mick that sometimes it can take a few runs , just like blinkers , tongue ties etc. As usual the focus is on First time , but there might be an edge retaining some for down the line - dont know? Might do some checking. Point being that the wind op sorts the problem but lack of race fitness remains.

I agree ARAZI91 i have certainly noticed this with head gear so why not same for a wind op.What i can say is that even if this had not taken place i would still have placed yesterdays wager.I had made the case working from RI and it was only afterwards when viewing the RP decs that i gleaned the wind op info,which i then viewed as an additional "possible" positive to support what i felt i already had.!

 

[ARAZI91]

I agree ARAZI91 i have certainly noticed this with head gear so why not same for a wind op.What i can say is that even if this had not taken place i would still have placed yesterdays wager.I had made the case working from RI and it was only afterwards when viewing the RP decs that i gleaned the wind op info,which i then viewed as an additional "possible" positive to support what i felt i already had.!

i agreed mick - i certainly gave yours a big shout in that field , thought the win at the same time last year was a stand out , and with the additional positives of same jock and the "potentially improve" with the wind op , at even the SP of 10-1 is still value in my eyes. I actually expected a few points shorter than that.

 

[mick]

I actually expected a few points shorter than that.

Tbh me too,i backed the evening before with most on @11/1 and some snagged @ 14/1.The stable often has runners that are smashed but when this did not occur on the day i did not view it as a neg.There appeared to be plenty of interest in other contenders and i also noted that mine had won before @ 25/1 and 10/1 perhaps unexpected on both occasions it does happen ,prob more often than most punters wish to believe or trainers admit to.?

 

[ARAZI91]

Tbh me too,i backed the evening before with most on @11/1 and some snagged @ 14/1.The stable often has runners that are smashed but when this did not occur on the day i did not view it as a neg.There appeared to be plenty of interest in other contenders and i also noted that mine had won before @ 25/1 and 10/1 perhaps unexpected on both occasions it does happen ,prob more often than most punters wish to believe or trainers admit to.?

mick - yes once again agree fully -those unexpected winners - trainers might not admit to this , but they are only human after all , and have heard a quote by one US trainer saying "sometimes we just throw shit at the wall - sometimes it sticks"

 

[markfinn]

mick - yes once again agree fully -those unexpected winners - trainers might not admit to this , but they are only human after all , and have heard a quote by one US trainer saying "sometimes we just throw shit at the wall - sometimes it sticks"

Good point - randomness - luck in running - etc to often over looked - the other the night the slipped slipped on one and the apprentice did a good job just to stay on.