UKBF Common Race - Daily Review Thread

[runnerjp]

Welcome to the "UKBF Common Race - Daily Review Thread". The purpose of this thread will be to analyse/review the UKBF Common Race thread to see how the winners and places where found.

By doing so, we may find the trends or be able to group different strategy's to improve how we look at a race.

 

[mick]

Well done runnerjp ,i wonder if Admin could do something Re pinning, sticking both threads.? It might prove helpful and worthwhile as the original is proving a success and i am sure this complimentary one will also.

 

[mick]

Kicking off with yesterdays winner,in a business that often appears rank with contradictions and confusion there are seldom any grey areas for myself when contemplating risking my wedge.I do not have interest or fun bets.As mentioned when Paddy opened 7/1 i did feel this offered decent value but because it was a race type i seldom look at there was no temptation to bet. On this occasion my loss but long term for myself the correct play.

Fun is a positive concept which i enjoy but betting wise i have found that discipline is very much a need just to have realistic expectation of breaking even,and where is the fun in losing money long term.?

 

[OnTheNod]

I have not been looking in lately because most have been N Hunt races which i dont really follow so i cant help much their, but yesterdays race i felt the winner had much going for him with a few course wins, and a distance win also which are all pluses for my way of rating on the flat. As well he had won with a heigher weight in the same grade which is another plus for me. Also for some reason i find 5f, 6f and races 2 miles or over the best races for me on the flat.

Well Done! runnerjp for making another thread i found the other one hard to follow at times.

 

[ARAZI91]

Good man runnerjp

 

[runnerjp]

Mick began his investigation looking at the front of the market Frontiersman to see if he could be taken on as was at evens “In this type there will usually be one favoured by the ORs but this obvious aspect is generally puffed by the press and reflected in the market, in this contest Frontiersman is a case in point. “

Notable negatives are never run on AW, Trip and the BL used for most recent win was not used in this race.

Watersmeet caught the eye as won over C&D and 4 class 2 contest so shown class ability. Recent form was also positive even though age was a concern. Did review the field size and noted horse runs better in single field figures.

Markfinn posted his own rating sections up

Pawras posted his own rating sections up

Jimbo also looked at why take on Frontiersman and came up with the same observations as Mick. He looked at the second fav for negatives with the 2m+ reads 10/14,7/7,6/8 and has obviously had a training setback having had only one run last season. Jimbo highlighted that Waters meet good course and distance ability and thought it should place at least

Dicko just liked the course profile of Watermeed and apparently, this was enough

I have put together a table that highlights what methods was used to find the winner

 

[runnerjp]

Correct picks again today, well done

Although Mickeddy had the winner there was no reason why so didnt add data to sheet

Jammy pointed out that Cougar Kid as an ew choice - this was because it was a course and distance winner, winner on soft,light weight although up in class. usual jockey on board and even noted her when she was 22/1!

elmoputney picked 1st and 2nd place but went for win only on Castafiore - doh! Look at the OR mark of 85 over CD and distance and noted it makes him competitive off a potentially still lenient mark carrying 9st 12lb with previous winning claimer.

So lets look at the stats so far:


The best indicators for looking at the winners so far form around the course and distance. To me at the moment it looks like a vital key piece of information you should start to look at is simply does the horse perform at the course and distance.

I am limiting the picks to win only unless you state ew in your pick - Dont forget that there is value in looking at the place market. This may not be just the case of how to find the winner but also whats the best best to do to get a constant return!

 

[mick]

winners so far form around the course and distance. To me at the moment it looks like a vital key piece of information you should start to look at is simply does the horse perform at the course and distance.

I have been involved for > 40yrs and its interesting to ponder how my long term attitudes have changed concerning aspects of form and sometimes gone full cycle.Older members will recall the 10% tax which had to be beat and i managed this by being very selective with an avg of 30 bets during a full turf flat season.

During those years i made positive previous course form a need with any horse i backed having winning or close up placed form at the course as part of.When the tax was abolished i became more flexible concerning this and remain so.What i have come to believe on balance is that correct interpenetration of course needs is more likely to help us swerve losers as opposed to finding winners but in the longer term this equates to same difference.

But the full cycle aspect mentioned has come into play for the AW.When i first became involved matters did not go well but for myself the positive turning point was when i made course form a need.I think this is less a case of track confirmation but more likely surface preference.

Re distance on turf or artificial,a stand alone topic.? I was brought up on the run it short to buy the OR reduction and future price but in recent years i notice that some stables appear to be using the opposite ploy. As with most matters racing it is unwise to generalize and once we have identified a horse of interest it is a need to dig deep Re correct trip at this course today.

 

[markfinn]

View attachment 54802

Mick began his investigation looking at the front of the market Frontiersman to see if he could be taken on as was at evens “In this type there will usually be one favoured by the ORs but this obvious aspect is generally puffed by the press and reflected in the market, in this contest Frontiersman is a case in point. “

Notable negatives are never run on AW, Trip and the BL used for most recent win was not used in this race.

Watersmeet caught the eye as won over C&D and 4 class 2 contest so shown class ability. Recent form was also positive even though age was a concern. Did review the field size and noted horse runs better in single field figures.

Markfinn posted his own rating sections up

Pawras posted his own rating sections up

Jimbo also looked at why take on Frontiersman and came up with the same observations as Mick. He looked at the second fav for negatives with the 2m+ reads 10/14,7/7,6/8 and has obviously had a training setback having had only one run last season. Jimbo highlighted that Waters meet good course and distance ability and thought it should place at least

Dicko just liked the course profile of Watermeed and apparently, this was enough

I have put together a table that highlights what methods was used to find the winner
View attachment 54803

I applaud the the thread as an idea to see where form is most effectively used - but personally speaking I do not think its a good idea to create a league only my view but I for one don't want entering into it.

 

[mick]

I applaud the the thread as an idea to see where form is most effectively used - but personally speaking I do not think its a good idea to create a league only my view but I for one don't want entering into it.

Mark i had similar thoughts although i am sure we both agree that runnerjp intentions where good.Which actual member is doing or saying what is not important ,it will be the collective learning which will come from the many which counts.

 

[markfinn]

all the above form part of my ratings - not fav or any market consideration - but - plus OR today Historic and second guess at what might be following the days race - the weight - any Jocky claim - DSLR - historic weight and age of winners - etc etc

 

[markfinn]

Mark i had similar thoughts although i am sure we both agree that runnerjp intentions where good.Which actual member is doing or saying what is not important ,it will be the collective learning which will come from the many which counts.

Yes I applaud runnerjp offer and effort - any effort by others freely given for others -that in turn leads to further ideas - that's what we are here for just think that league tables are best left to those want to be inc - not for me

 

[elmoputney]

I also agree and time would maybe be better spent looking at post race analysis of the runners, this way we may even spot next time winners as well, maybe start with a full results sheet of all runners then if anyone wishes to comment on any of the runners performances they could, tbh when I make selections I do consider most of the above but I haven't got time to write it all up so Just highlight what I see as important and what hasn't been said already.

 

[runnerjp]

Sorry this was not meant to be "Who is the best~" type thread was more around what common things where highlighted that lead to the success of the selection.

If I am correct from posts on here, you all share in the IS information such as the ratings you produce. I did feel this as the same kind of evaluation of what works best – I want to highlight the evaluation on the front Frontiersman that Mark and Jimbo did on why it shouldn’t win. That was brilliant as I have shown, I like to reduce the field before I start looking and now want to start with just the Fav (I often start with the higher priced runners)– why is it fav? Should it be Fav – Should I lay the fav to cover be bet?

But I’m happy to scrap the current format (tbh I was dipping my toe in) and go with any ideas people have. This all came about as ARAZI91 rightfully pointed out - what are we getting from the post?
I come from an IT role and every week (even in my home life) I question 2 things:

1) is what I am currently doing adding any benefit?

An example could be pulling race cards every day but if I only concentrate on all weather then why don’t I just pull the AW cards?
2) Can I improve what I am doing?

I shall take Mick’s example here -

“The full cycle aspect mentioned has come into play for the AW. When I first became, involved matters did not go well but for myself the positive turning point was when I made course form a need. I think this is less a case of track confirmation but more likely surface preference.”

So, I am happy to help and do whatever people find beneficial - I took a stab at what I would find beneficial and maybe didn’t get it wright (sorry if I upset you in doing so markfinn as this was never my intention) but we all want to suggest something I’m happy to put the work in.

 

[mick]

Well said runnerjp i see no problem with you collating any points or aspects discussed but i would suggest swerving user names when doing so.I do not mind you quoting something i have posted as per above but i think it is the individual league type references which some members (myself inc) would feel less keen about. That is all and its no big deal so lets move on.

 

[mick]

An additional thought.The common horse thread has already attracted many posts and with only one exception to my eyes all have been constructive positive and polite.This encourages continuation from members already contributing but just as importantly increases the prospects of others joining in.

 

[ARAZI91]

well said all runnerjp markfinn mick elmoputney - democracy in action!! and a little dab of socialism thrown in for good measure
No need for contests agree but intentions were well meant and heart felt - sorted

 

[runnerjp]

So moving forward what do we want to see?

Shall we pull apart the race after and see what things we found (no names ) and then what we missed!

Perhaps that's the key here .... what did we miss!

 

[mick]

runnerjp your above question should lead to some interesting posts,but my hope is that the thread also progresses to inc all form profile ratings aspects.This is just my personal take but when i start a thread it seldom bothers me if some appear to be posting a little off topic because often this will cause additional and interesting contributions.The time to worry is when there is no interest shown.

As i explained i am out of the running for the majority of chosen target races at this time of year,and i feel absolutely no problem with this ,but attempt to balance via offering more general over views.

Tbh i have become leery and cynical about sharing on any open forum and with good reason,but what i have witnessed to date on both common threads gives heart.Of course people are going to disagree sometimes and this is healthy ,but under these circumstances it is seldom what is said but rather the way its presented which causes the problems.?

I would say zero tolerance to keyboard warriors but currently not needed as we do not have them.

 

[ARAZI91]

So moving forward what do we want to see?

Shall we pull apart the race after and see what things we found (no names ) and then what we missed!

Perhaps that's the key here .... what did we miss!

runnerjp - maybe start with a general overview of the race , type , etc , then strategies played , ideas suggested then highlight any successful strategies eg - "vulnerable favourites" "ratings to odds" also any post race snippets that might prove of value down the line and hopefully contributors will add to it which might open up the thread to more valuable discussion.