UK Racecourses

[Sheltie61]

I've been a keen advocate on time.Without sectional timing its hard to compile i believe good speed figures.
The one downside I have to achieving good ratings is the nature of the course.All courses are different and don't reflect a true rating.It's my belief that two horse's running on different courses on the same going and the same distance, equalling the course standard are not necessary equal.A horse running uphill will have shorter stride and cover less ground than a horse on a flat or downhill track.That stride (or length) would be even shorter on soft or heavy ground.That throws in another problem how long is a length.I've been using a very basic and crude equation to assess time,Time/Distance in yards or feet x by 220 yards to give a rough estimate of how long it took the winner to cover a furlong.Surprisingly it works out for some future races.The one thing that is missing and I believe would be the final piece to the jigsaw is a way of making all courses equal on time so you could see what time should be recorded at different tracks.If anybody has any thoughts on this and how to make all
courses equal by using some formula it would be interesting to test it.

 

[ArkRoyal]

Have you had a look here The Blues Brother - Speed Ratings

Lots of useful information contained within this thread.

 

[Chesham]

Hi S Sheltie61

Surely the standard time for each course and distance is the factor that you seek, along with going allowance on any particular day. TheBluesBrother has written many articles on the above as well as advising when the distance of a race has been altered by Rail Movements.

 

[TheBluesBrother]

I've been a keen advocate on time.Without sectional timing its hard to compile i believe good speed figures.
The one downside I have to achieving good ratings is the nature of the course.All courses are different and don't reflect a true rating.It's my belief that two horse's running on different courses on the same going and the same distance, equalling the course standard are not necessary equal.A horse running uphill will have shorter stride and cover less ground than a horse on a flat or downhill track.That stride (or length) would be even shorter on soft or heavy ground.That throws in another problem how long is a length.I've been using a very basic and crude equation to assess time,Time/Distance in yards or feet x by 220 yards to give a rough estimate of how long it took the winner to cover a furlong.Surprisingly it works out for some future races.The one thing that is missing and I believe would be the final piece to the jigsaw is a way of making all courses equal on time so you could see what time should be recorded at different tracks.If anybody has any thoughts on this and how to make all
courses equal by using some formula it would be interesting to test it.

I solved the problem you mentioned by calculating a lbs per length figure for every racecourse and distance.

Standard times: StandardTimes.xls

Even the problem with the daily rail movements.

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/race-info/fixtures/results/

Using my "constant 15" method, if on a national hunt racecourse, the rail movement has added 257yds to the distance, you simple divide 257yds by 15 = 17.13s (use the same standard times but subtract 17.13s) from the winning time.

To work out the lbs per length figures take a standard time like Ascot 5f = 59.00s

Divide 59.0s by 0.2 (one length) = 295
Then divide 295 into 1
1/295 = 3.3898
3.3898 * 1000 (decimal placement) = 3.39 (rounded up)
So the lbs per length figure for Ascot's 5f trip is 3.39lbs per length

So if you did this for every racecourse they should be brought into line.

My going allowance figures and speed figures for every meeting going back to Jan 2013.

Speed Figures.rar

Mike.

 

[Sheltie61]

I solved the problem you mentioned by calculating a lbs per length figure for every racecourse and distance.

Standard times: StandardTimes.xls

Even the problem with the daily rail movements.

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/race-info/fixtures/results/

Using my "constant 15" method, if on a national hunt racecourse, the rail movement has added 257yds to the distance, you simple divide 257yds by 15 = 17.13s (use the same standard times but subtract 17.13s) from the winning time.

To work out the lbs per length figures take a standard time like Ascot 5f = 59.00s

Divide 59.0s by 0.2 (one length) = 295
Then divide 295 into 1
1/295 = 3.3898
3.3898 * 1000 (decimal placement) = 3.39 (rounded up)
So the lbs per length figure for Ascot's 5f trip is 3.39lbs per length

So if you did this for every racecourse they should be brought into line.

My going allowance figures and speed figures for every meeting going back to Jan 2013.

Speed Figures.rar

Mike.

I find it very interesting your formula but something doesn't gel.Using your logic i have an imaginative race.My two horses A+B race lets say A races
at 5f Pontefract and wins equalling standard time on good ground.Horse B races at Epsom 5f equalling standard time on good ground.Both carried equal weights.
Using your lbs per length for each course horse B roughly covers 7.5 feet per second more than horse A.They both meet next time out equal weights at Epsom 5f which horse
should win.Horse A ran on a stiff track were stamina was essential.Horse B ran on an easy track were stamina was not essential.I am in no way criticizing your formula just trying to understand logic if you know what i mean.Using the lbs per length horse B should win because he can cover more feet per sec but will he?
Please give me your opinion has i have read loads of your posts and you have my respect,but can see what i'm getting at.

Lawrence

 

[TheBluesBrother]

S Sheltie61

Horses racing is linear, but not as linear as the holy grail which you seek, what you are missing from your equation is the going allowance.

Take it from me, the basis of being a speed figure compiler is the ability to calculate the daily going allowances, without this all you achieve
is a best fit scenario putting together a set of ratings.

Mike.

 

[TheBluesBrother]

An advance tutorial in compiling speed figures for yesterday's meeting at Cartmel.

In the first example note the COMP (comparison per furlong) and the first RATING columns.



Checking the BHA website I see that there were rail movements.

Soft 5mms rain since first race, currently raining (GoingStick: 7.0 on Sunday at 06:30)
Rails:Both bends moved out 6 yd out from innermost line to provide fresh ground.

I apply my "constant 15" method (seconds in brackets) and adjust the COMP times.

Race distances as follows;
Race 1 (2m6f H) - adds 77yds (5.13s)
Race 2 (2m1f H) - adds 68yds (4.53s)
Race 3 (3m1f CH) - adds 86yds (5.73s)
Race 4 (2m1f CH) - adds 68yds (4.53s)
Race 5 (2m5f CH) - adds 77yds (5.13s)
Race 6 (3m1f H) - adds 86yds (5.73s)
Race 7 (2m1f H) - adds 68yds (4.53s)

After applying the rails movement changes you can see COMP times have changed, along with the RATINGS.

My next step is calculating the going allowance or allowances.

GOING: GOOD changing to GOOD TO SOFT after Race 3 (3.20) changing to SOFT after Race 6 (5.00). Weather conditions: cloudy, rain from before 2nd.

After assessing the going allowance, I found that the rain didn't get into the ground until after the 4th race, first 4 races +0.20s/f (good) and the last 3 0.00s/f (good).

Adding the going allowances adjustment, the ratings have changed again, the second set of RATINGS is the weight adjustment using 11-0 and a base rate of 130



So to finish off these are my speed figures for yesterday's meeting at Cartmel.



Mike.

 

[markfinn]

@TheBlues Brother Thanks that's a great post

 

[Muttley]

TheBluesBrother, that is absolutely outstanding Analysis, class in a glass.