Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day
- Thread starter markfinn
- Start date
markfinn
Sire
quite some improvement for your horse - Well Done
Donny
Filly
markfinn, yes i picked the wrong horse again even going against my own ratings. 
Average rating + delta vs. average
Field average = 64.62.
| Horse | Total | Δ vs. avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maris Angel | 77 | +12.38 | 94% |
| Simply Blue | 76 | +11.38 | 81% |
| Lucky Man | 73 | +8.38 | 69% |
| Pickering Castle | 69 | +4.38 | 56% |
| Good Earth | 62 | −2.62 | 44% |
| Zoulu Warrior | 57 | −7.62 | 31% |
| Sovereign Knight | 53 | −11.62 | 19% |
| Treacherous | 50 | −14.62 | 6% |
Sullybomb
Yearling
We've all been there.
Average rating + delta vs. average
Field average = 64.62.
Horse Total Δ vs. avg Percentile Maris Angel 77 +12.38 94% Simply Blue 76 +11.38 81% Lucky Man 73 +8.38 69% Pickering Castle 69 +4.38 56% Good Earth 62 −2.62 44% Zoulu Warrior 57 −7.62 31% Sovereign Knight 53 −11.62 19% Treacherous 50 −14.62 6%
Frightfully difficult race in my opinion and it follows that it won't be easy to find something worth saying but i have taken an interest in SOUTH SHORE ISLAND an ex irish 3yr old that started the season on a mark of 79, runs here off 55 but due to drop to 53 so running off a 2lb higher mark.
Further bad news is is a poor draw in 11 which probably means he might well go off at a breakneck pace with a view to dropping even further, this is how he was ridden the last time he ran over c/d and although btn over 5L finished 3rd in amongst horses rated around 62 and i wonder if he might have done a little better if ridden differently.
Another thought was the sectionals and i compare his numbers with SOUTHBANK who won over c/d two days later.
SOUTHBANK
14.27 / 11.78 / 11.99 / 11.65 / 11.45 / 12.13 / 1.13. 25s
SOUTH SHORE ISLAND
13.78 / 11.12 / 11.41 / 11.54 / 11.78 / 12.62 / 1.12. 24s
So a full second quicker which in truth was down to the early pace but just enough for me to think it's worth saying.
Once again i suspect the draw will dictate the tactics and the intent but i think the market might give a clue.
Further bad news is is a poor draw in 11 which probably means he might well go off at a breakneck pace with a view to dropping even further, this is how he was ridden the last time he ran over c/d and although btn over 5L finished 3rd in amongst horses rated around 62 and i wonder if he might have done a little better if ridden differently.
Another thought was the sectionals and i compare his numbers with SOUTHBANK who won over c/d two days later.
SOUTHBANK
14.27 / 11.78 / 11.99 / 11.65 / 11.45 / 12.13 / 1.13. 25s
SOUTH SHORE ISLAND
13.78 / 11.12 / 11.41 / 11.54 / 11.78 / 12.62 / 1.12. 24s
So a full second quicker which in truth was down to the early pace but just enough for me to think it's worth saying.
Once again i suspect the draw will dictate the tactics and the intent but i think the market might give a clue.
DuckandDive
Mare
Cameley Days @ 10/3+ should be able to convert turf form into all weather form, and Smasher 13/2+ will be in the clive holt fans notebook.
Dave
Colt
Tricky race for sure. I’m thinking Beau Jardine dropping back to 6F might just reverse the placing with Smasher now 1lbs better off.
Southbank will taking some stopping with a 7lbs claimer on board so long as the claiming jockey knows his job. He’s in experienced as far as Kempton is concerned having raced three times there but has got a win under his belt.
I’m going Southbank to beat the favourite with Beau Jardin and Smasher close by.
Southbank will taking some stopping with a 7lbs claimer on board so long as the claiming jockey knows his job. He’s in experienced as far as Kempton is concerned having raced three times there but has got a win under his belt.
I’m going Southbank to beat the favourite with Beau Jardin and Smasher close by.
markfinn
Sire
WIN - Cameley Days tops integrated rankings by combining elite ability (OR 144, 2nd highest OR+T) with strong improving form signals. Poss OR Diff -8 at age 3 indicates handicapper significantly upgraded rating after last run - the horse ran 8lbs better than official mark suggested. Form status classification UNDERRATED with +3% adjustment applied. Base integrated score 86.21 reflects 80% horse ability + 20% jockey (Muscutt: FAIR, 18.5% course success). Prominent pace style (P) suits race shape (P IV 1.19), though draw (0.83 IV) slightly below optimal. Neutral 1.0x pace/draw multiplier maintains strong position. Won at Bath (22 gradient - HILL course), proving versatility. Partnership shows intent flag despite 0.0% course form (0 from 4 runs) - potentially questionable but booking suggests confidence. Age 3 with proven_form task qualification. Ability assessment EXCELLENT despite zero course wins to date.
WIN & PLACE - STARSONG Final Score: 85.84 | Win Chance: 80.0% | OR+T Position: 4th (137) ranks 2nd in integrated analysis, combining proven course form with improving status. OR 137 (4th in field), but 28.9% course strike rate (38 runs, 11 wins) is highest in field - clear course specialist. Poss OR Diff -4 at age 6 signals handicapper upgraded rating (IMPROVING status, +3% adjustment). Base score 83.34 gets neutral 1.0x multiplier (leading pace style favored by IV 1.9, but draw 0.80 slightly below threshold). Jockey Paetel rated FAIR (15.7% course success). Form status UNDERRATED. Won at severe gradient (Beverley, 81 gradient) showing versatility. Partnership shows 25.0% course form with intent flagged. Proven_form task suitability (90/90). Six-year-old gelding at peak age with 38 runs at venue providing statistical reliability. Ability level EXCELLENT. Only concern: lower raw OR+T than top ability horses, but course form and improving trajectory
Michael231
Colt
In preferance order
18:00 Kempton Southbank 41 5 74.2
18:00 Kempton Cameley Days 34 5 74
18:00 Kempton Smasher 39 5 68.3
18:00 Kempton Southbank 41 5 74.2
18:00 Kempton Cameley Days 34 5 74
18:00 Kempton Smasher 39 5 68.3
gerry
Mare
Not a race i am crazy about but found it interesting when won well last time the trainer said the track which it had previous good form at was reason for revival which sounds bollocks to me as only run once at track and was 5th in poor race so it definitely improved on that last time and the booking of young toby tells me there trying again.
Oh lol not mentioned horse yet SOUTHBANK.
Oh lol not mentioned horse yet SOUTHBANK.
Donny
Filly
| Runner (stall) | OR | Base | Market | Adjusted | %ile | Δ vs avg | Best odds | Target (Exchange-style) | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southbank (1) | 59 | 81.6 | 5.5 | 78.9 | 100 | +31.8 | 5.0 | 7.0 | ✖︎ |
| Smasher (4) | 55 | 75.5 | 6.7 | 72.9 | 91.7 | +25.7 | 6.0 | 7.7 | ✖︎ |
| Cameley Days (7) | 56 | 59.1 | 10.1 | 59.2 | 58.3 | +9.3 | 10/3 | 8.3 | ✖︎ |
| Classy Clarets (2) | 60 | 63.2 | 4.2 | 57.4 | 83.3 | +13.4 | 20.0 | 11.0 |  |
| Hallowed Time (6) | 60 | 59.9 | 4.9 | 56.6 | 66.7 | +10.1 | 14.0 | 11.1 | |
| Starsong (8) | 56 | 61.3 | 5.0 | 56.3 | 75.0 | +11.5 | 16.0 | 11.0 | |
| Tomorrow Day (3) | 52 | 49.0 | 3.4 | 47.4 | 50.0 | −0.8 | 12.0 | 12.8 | (marg.) |
| Beau Jardine (5) | 54 | 47.1 | 4.4 | 46.8 | 41.7 | −2.7 | 10.0 | 12.5 | ✖︎ |
| Watermelon Sugar (9) | 57 | 31.0 | 2.7 | 27.9 | 33.3 | −18.8 | 40.0 | 22.3 | |
| Darn Hot Mystery (12) | 59 | 25.6 | 2.9 | 25.7 | 25.0 | −24.2 | 14.0 | 21.8 | ✖︎ |
| South Shore Island (11) | 55 | 23.7 | 3.8 | 24.0 | 16.7 | −26.1 | 15.0 | 23.1 | ✖︎ |
| Calafrio (10) | 53 | 20.5 | 3.8 | 22.2 | 8.3 | −29.3 | 11.0 | 23.6 | ✖︎ |
NO BET
