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23rd Jan ....

"Class Drop"
6.40 Newcastle - Rockley Point

Has gone desperately close the last twice both times being denied on the line by a neck from one coming from behind. Drops back down in grade tomorrow and should once again go very close. willhill have opened at 11/4 on this one, I suspect it will go off shorter.

.. more to follow.


I do an HRB system that incorporates rules 2,3 &4, I will however refrain from posting selections as I can stop horses quicker than Charlie Byrnes 😩😩😩
Mind if I ask how you incorporate rule #4 in HRB? I can see how you'd add weight relative to others, but not relative to the grade/weight classification? thanks in advance.


"Beaten Fav"
4.10 Chelm - Indigo Times
Won two on the bounce towards the tail end of last year and then was a nk second staying on well in a better race than this one today. Should be bang there if the break has freshened him up. @ 9/4ish right now, price seems close to my value (5/2)

"Class Drop"
2.10 Chelm - Casaruan
Looks to have been found a nice opening here. Seems to have a preference for this track and last two runs here have been nice indicators for this one. Went off fav though bottom weight in a 0-70 and was beaten just 1/2 length. Last time out over 7f in a 0-80 again bottom weight, was simply outclassed and beaten 4.5 lengths. Drops today into a 0-60 which should give him a fighting chance. Cheekpieces on for the first time, back up to 1 mile. I suspect will be very competitive against these. The early 8/1 was taken, 9/2 is still up on the boards as I type this. Has to be about right at those odds.

"New Rule"
7.45 Kemp - Wally's Wisdom
Lets take a flyer in this one. Only two wins this one has ever had have been over course and distance in a 0-55 handicap. The horse is two wins from three races under those circumstances. The defeat in the same conditions was by less than 2.5 lengths. Last run in Dec was off an OR of 58, horse needed to drop to 57 in order to get back into this race and was able to do so with a dismal 30 length defeat. Handicapper gave him a 1lb drop. That allows him in a 0-55 off 57 today. Last win was actually in this event last year. Looks like a plan has been in place, lets see if the horse can spring a decent run at massive odds (40/1 available on exchanges) and 20/1 available e/w with 365.


Two for Tuesday

"Hot Race"
5.40 Wolvs - Mack the Knife
Bottom of the barrel stuff. Mack the knife last time out in a 46-60 hcap running off a mark of just 42 was able to split horses rated much higher than him, beaten just 3.5 lengths after 12 months off the track, was having first run for new trainer and had a very inexperienced jockey up top. was a little slow away but ran round well enough and it looked like there could be a little more to come. Into a classified stakes race tomorrow. Nothing in this one rated higher than 50 and this may well be more his level now that they know what they are working with. Still very unexposed, early odds of 14's have gone, is now as low as 8's in most places. Worth taking a chance at that price given the two in front of him last time out and two that he had in behind have all gone on to win again.

5.10 Wolvs - Polyphony
Won a 0-85 event last time out over CD, this one looks easier and though now carrying more weight, is not being asked to do much more than repeat his last run in order to go close again. Four of the five horses he beat last time out are rated mid 80's, two from that last race have gone on to win again. Nothing of that caliber in this race tomorrow. at current odds of 11/2 is probably worth a small tickle.
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"Class Drop"
4.25 Southwell - Ustath
Following three wins on the bounce, handicapper seemed to have the measure of this one, however has been running well in defeat and tomorrow drops back in grade. I suspect that weight will prove too much again, but is still bang in form and this easier race may once again prove the difference, price of 9/2 seems fair abut a horse that likes course/distance and who has a very decent 7lb claimer up top.

6.00 Newcastle - Great Colaci
14/1 is too big about a horse that is proven over track and trip and that has proven can be competitive at this level. Last time out against better was staying on towards the end of the race and got within a coupe of lengths of horses rated 10lb higher. Is well worth taking a shot at this price.


So far

"Hot Races"
6 Bets - 1 win

"Beaten Favorites"
4 Bets - 2 Win

"Class Drop"
6 bets - 0 wins

"New Rule"
4 Bets - 1

Close today with Colachi 2nd @ 25's on exchanges. but not to be.


"Hot Races"
4.45 Wolvs - Lethal Talent
Last race won a class 4 event from Corazon Espinado. That one went on to win again comfortably and is now rated 87. Slight step up tomorrow but nothing that should be beyond her. Priced up at 17/2 and that seems like a more than fair price for the chance to follow up.

"Class Drop"
8.15 Wolvs - The Gravy Train
Won 2lto over CD but was then stepped up markedly in grade over the sharper track at Lingfield, did not disgrace even though 8 or 8 finishing just over 3l from winner that day, Back over CD of last win and back down in grade to something more his level. Up a couple of lbs for that win, but has won from this OR before and likes the track and distance. Kingscote up top has ridden the horse once before over CD, was a little too keen that day in front, needs to be close up with pace before pressing late. Price of 7's seems acceptable.