• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

TSATW II

pete

pete

Dam
Trying to jumpstart my interest and will start with a series of quickfire methods that I suspect will each throw out a few selections each week.
I have never tried nor tested these, so beware if following along. 5 selection methods in all.

First based on qualifiers from "Hot Races"
Second concentrating on "Beaten Favorites"
Third looking at horses dropping in class.
Fourth Looking at horses weighted 1 or 2lbs above the grade of race that it is running in (as mick mick likes to call it - the "new rule")
The fifth will be looking at low price lays (may turn into a get the favorite beat backing thread)

All of these are based around the idea that they will allow me to quickly look at races and find a selection, in the hope that it may reignite my interest in the game and push me back towards my daily race-watching and taking notes, which is generally where my money is made.

This is NOT the end point, this is a starting point and as such should not be considered as something that anyone should follow. These are not really "systems" as such, no strict rules to follow, but they are selection methods with a loose criteria alongside a vague judgement of win potential combined with a little "value" play sprinkled on top.

Am about to run through the cards and see if anything stands out for tomorrow.

:)
 
pete

pete

Dam
Selections for 1/20

"Hot Races"
6.00 Southwell - Engrave
Last time out was staying on well, first run at Southwell. Beat current fav for tomorrows race by 2+ lengths and gets an extra 1lb or two for this time. Seems decent value for one that seemed like a step up in trip might suit and that seemed to handle the surface just fine last time out. Three that she beat in that last race have gone on to win since. @ approx 6/1+ it seems the value play.

"Beaten Fav"
7.30 Southwell - Arcavallo
Has gone off fav or joint fav in last six races without getting head in front. Has been beaten around a length or less in 6 of last 8 starts, so is running consistently well, this one tomorrow looks like another rock bottom 5f handicap, last time here shaped well enough, led and just caught close home. Is tomorrow finally the day. Looks like he could go off fav again ! @ 7/2+

"Class Drop"
5.30 Southwell - Alminoor
Won two class fours on the bounce in Aug and Sept of last year, then upped to class 3 for next two races and was not able to compete, though ran respectably last time out at Chelmsford over 7f when weakening in the final furlong. A drop back in class and trip tomorrow should suit and a prior run at Southwell showed that the surface should be ok. Price of 7/2 seems fair for the chance in this 5 runner handicap.

"New Rule"
4.30 Southwell - Delph Crescent
Drops back into a 0-70 for the first time since October of last year when winning on heavy ground at Musselburgh. Should have the speed here and shows up well when going off fav with 3 wins from 4.

5.30 Southwell - Alminoor
See above - Both wins last year were in 0-85 events. Was then pushed up to OR of 88 so not able to compete at this level for next race, stuck in 0-90 last time and now down to an OR of 86, is able to get into this race because of the "new rule" and already has another entry at Newcastle in another 0-85 in a few days which he could get into with a penalty should he win this.
 
pete

pete

Dam
just the one winner yesterday. also had a 6/1 second, so some positive .. ad it did make me watch the replays, so mission accomplished.

Thurs 21st

"Hot Races"

4.30 Newcastle - Nine Elms
Last race was back in December when staying on well from behind over 1m at Southwell to finish fourth.
The second, third and fifth from that race have all won since. Opened @ 9/1 with 365, but is now down to 15/2, does not have much form outside of Southwell and this race looks a little better than that last one, but should be able to compete here if in the same form as last time out at a reasonable price.

"Beaten Fav"

4.00 Ling - Top Boy
Is probably on the downward road to retirement nowadays, but has shown sparks of ability remain recently and a drop into a 0-55 in this one has to see him have his best chance for a while. Already backed at higher prices should go close here as this does not look like it will take much winning.

6.00 Newc - Chosen World
Back to 7f and running off a mark of 58 must go close again here tomorrow. Seems ready to run into a bit of form again and would not surprise me if a couple of races were picked up with this one over the next few weeks.

"Class Drop"

6.00 Newc - Global Destination
Been off track for quite some time, last seen running off an OR of 71 in a 0-80 hcap at Chelmsford back in October 2019. Has been allowed a 6lb drop by handicapper for this return to racing and if he is able to hold anything like previous form he should put up a good show at a big price.

"New Rule"

4.00 Ling - Storm Melody
Drops into a 0-55 for first time in career off a mark of 57. Last time out in a 0-65 beaten by odds on fav who was rated 68. Should be ultra competitive in this one against these.
 
Last edited:
Larry

Larry

Mare
I do an HRB system that incorporates rules 2,3 &4, I will however refrain from posting selections as I can stop horses quicker than Charlie Byrnes 😩😩😩
 
pete

pete

Dam
So far

"Hot Races"
2 Bets - 0 wins
-2pts

"Beaten Favorites"
3 Bets - 1 Win @ 6.40 bfsp
+3.27pts

"Class Drop"
2 bets - 0 wins
-2pts

"New Rule"
3 Bets - 1 Win @ 2.60
-0.45pts
 
pete

pete

Dam
22nd Jan

Just the two tomorrow.

"Hot Races"
1.00 Ling - Waqaas
Finished with a flourish in his last race coming from way back round the final turn to get within a head of the winner. Is obviously in good form and on a decent mark. Three of the horses he had behind him that day have gone on to win races since that race three weeks ago. This is a slight step up in class, but the extra furlong may suit. Seems like horses at this level all hit form at some point. currently 11/2 and price seems about right for the chance.

3.10 Ling - Buy me Back
Was beaten a length and a neck last time out , but both of those in front have since gone on to win again. This race looks to be a small amount easier than last time and the sharper track may suit and if he can get out ahead of Indian pursuit could well come round that final bend on the inside with a bit of an advantage to hold to the line. Backed in from 7's to 11/2 already but price still seems about right.
 
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