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Trainer change systems


Results for May


Results and profit so far by month.




I haven't fully broken down flat, all-weather and jumps but I'll do that another time.


I wonder if looking at break down you could also look at months ... So NH do you want to be having those trainer changes in the summer months or winter.... Perhaps I trainer change in the peak of season would be a negative ie... Why are they moving a horse during the middle of jumps season


Thanks runnerjp runnerjp. I agree - I'd have expected the busier points to be at the start and end of the season (just focusing on jump season here as it's the simplest and historically most reliable system). It's actually a bit more evenly spread, but definitely quieter during January to March.
If there is such a thing as a bumper month, it would be June... 🤞


Sorry, I should add... a key consideration here is my system has a "days since run" filter. Main idea being that it's a "fresh" change of scenery rather than one that happened months ago. That will remove a lot of October and November runners.

If I could check horses that haven't run in months but changed yards recently then I would, but it's not doable practically.


I think Becky Smith might have brought him to the front sooner if she had her time again. He was travelling well enough. Some here will know better than me, but I doubt many horses in front coming round the bend at Cartmel end up losing.
Nevermind. Soldier on...


Attached are a couple of examples that show my different ideas.

The first one (for the flat) focuses on horse characteristics as the key thing. Fewer than 5 runs suggests an unexposed horse that might particularly benefit from a trainer trying something new. Additional criteria are that the trainer has had a winner in the last 30 days (hopefully removing ones horribly out of form), CD winners (a standard control variable of mine) and odds.

The second one (for NH) focuses on trainers who have done well with new recruits. This has been discussed on other threads, but I looked back at 2011-2019 to test it in 2020, and also made a system with odd years and one with even years, and grouped the ones who did well in both. This was the short list.

Both are guilty of backfitting (which system isn't...) but i'd welcome people's thoughts, as I can see arguments for building trainer change systems around the horse data or around the trainer data.
I had a check with these newcomer newcomer and 1 think you may need to change is if its a trainer change you will need to set it to this:

As at the moment you have it set to 0 which means its never ran before anyway - same with the NH as at the moment you have not set it to show it has been wit another trainer


Fair comment (although the images from that first post aren't the filters I'm using).

I think the fact I only focus on handicaps (especially combined with a days since run filter) eliminates horses that genuinely haven't run before.