• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

Trainer change systems

newcomer

Filly
Results for May

4/33
+9.42

Results and profit so far by month.

March:
+35.99
359.90%

April:
+8.85
32.78%

May:
+9.42
28.55%

I haven't fully broken down flat, all-weather and jumps but I'll do that another time.
 

runnerjp

Colt
I wonder if looking at break down you could also look at months ... So NH do you want to be having those trainer changes in the summer months or winter.... Perhaps I trainer change in the peak of season would be a negative ie... Why are they moving a horse during the middle of jumps season
 

newcomer

Filly
Screenshot_20210602-103039.png
Thanks runnerjp runnerjp. I agree - I'd have expected the busier points to be at the start and end of the season (just focusing on jump season here as it's the simplest and historically most reliable system). It's actually a bit more evenly spread, but definitely quieter during January to March.
If there is such a thing as a bumper month, it would be June... 🤞
 

newcomer

Filly
Sorry, I should add... a key consideration here is my system has a "days since run" filter. Main idea being that it's a "fresh" change of scenery rather than one that happened months ago. That will remove a lot of October and November runners.

If I could check horses that haven't run in months but changed yards recently then I would, but it's not doable practically.
 

newcomer

Filly
I think Becky Smith might have brought him to the front sooner if she had her time again. He was travelling well enough. Some here will know better than me, but I doubt many horses in front coming round the bend at Cartmel end up losing.
Nevermind. Soldier on...
 

runnerjp

Colt
Attached are a couple of examples that show my different ideas.

The first one (for the flat) focuses on horse characteristics as the key thing. Fewer than 5 runs suggests an unexposed horse that might particularly benefit from a trainer trying something new. Additional criteria are that the trainer has had a winner in the last 30 days (hopefully removing ones horribly out of form), CD winners (a standard control variable of mine) and odds.

The second one (for NH) focuses on trainers who have done well with new recruits. This has been discussed on other threads, but I looked back at 2011-2019 to test it in 2020, and also made a system with odd years and one with even years, and grouped the ones who did well in both. This was the short list.

Both are guilty of backfitting (which system isn't...) but i'd welcome people's thoughts, as I can see arguments for building trainer change systems around the horse data or around the trainer data.
I had a check with these newcomer newcomer and 1 think you may need to change is if its a trainer change you will need to set it to this:
1622639968309.png

As at the moment you have it set to 0 which means its never ran before anyway - same with the NH as at the moment you have not set it to show it has been wit another trainer
 

newcomer

Filly
Fair comment (although the images from that first post aren't the filters I'm using).

I think the fact I only focus on handicaps (especially combined with a days since run filter) eliminates horses that genuinely haven't run before.
 
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