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Trainer change systems

hello greyabbey that horse cartmel 18.20 hungry tiger it was trained in Ireland and won comfortably the new trainer has had it just over a month it also was flag up with another system i used to use from a mr webley years ago 5/1 fav bet365
 
Thanks eeyore eeyore, I thought the horse was a bit overweighted by the handicapper. Ran well enough but always struggling.
Inevitably a thing of this system - it throws up horses you don't fancy. :)
 
I think another good idea when considering trainer changes is to decide whether both the old and new trainer have had a good season or not.

As an example, the 9.00 race at Kempton last Wednesday.
The horse is Bankrolled.
Left Richard Fahey and gone to Jane Chapple-Hyam.
Richard Fahey has had a pretty disappointing season in general, (although I consider him to be a very good trainer).
Whilst Jane Chapple-Hyam has had a pretty good season.
Richard Fahey ran Bankrolled in a couple of big sales races last season as a 2 year old, but this season has only been able to get a distant 5th, (albeit in a class 4 0-85 handicap), at Haydock.

First run for new yard after a five week or so break, came 2nd in this Kempton race at SP of 12/1, (in a class 6 0-65). Only beaten by a horse that made all for the first time (Pinball Wizard). The winner has been criticised as a very tricky horse, but looked very straightforward in this race, with the change of tactics seeming to make a big difference. He also had amongst the best form in this weak race anyway.

Main point being: that I expect Bankrolled to be winning soon, and in all likelihood to be rated higher than 59.
Think the headline angle with trainer changes is often the strike-rate achieved by trainers with horses making their debut for the yard. Whereas, I think the key thing is whether the new yard will improve the horse, (whether that be compared to the horse's career-best form or best form from the previous yard). Very few trainers achieve a strike-rate of above 17 or 18% on debut for their yard anyway.
Of course, you then have to work out when the yard will improve the horse. Things are rarely easy when betting on horses!
 
Imagine the success we could have if there were certain real life filters we could throw into HRB...

Shared a van with another trainer. Ignore.
Had a banging headache but thought the trip would be worth it. 3pt win.
Course is 500 miles away but only 50 yards from his Mam, who he was visiting for the week. Ignore.
Jockey had an extra Weetabix this morning and is up for it. 2pt win.

Thanks for this M mattyboy. On your last point, I agree it's the challenge! I posted the above elsewhere, and it feels appropriate...

I've looked at focusing on individual trainers before for trainer changes and I've found it a struggle. I know some trainers actively try to recruit horses who have been poorly trained previously (either by just not being very good or because they poorly placing their horses).

I try and remember horses and keep an eye on them. The issue with Bankrolled (I watched that race and noted the same) is that the horse won't be double figures next time out. I'd sooner the horse had shown promise and finished last...
 
Isn't Seven for a Pound a qualifier ?
I wish! Alas, not. I'm not sure which filter knocked the horse out. I have filters for removing fields with CD winners in and number of career runs, which seem to improve the flat returns. I think I've said before, the flat system is annoying filled with filters. The NH one is way summer.
 
I wish! Alas, not. I'm not sure which filter knocked the horse out. I have filters for removing fields with CD winners in and number of career runs, which seem to improve the flat returns. I think I've said before, the flat system is annoying filled with filters. The NH one is way summer.
Bummer !!
Must admit I really really like the NH bit of this thread, the Flat...not so much. Roll on October.
 
It has done well at various points on the season across the years. Ultimately, it's a 10-15% system. It'll have long losing runs.
 
Regional wins at 7.6. Cooperation and Sir Min were both very well backed. Copake drifted to a daft price and ran accordingly.

17/145
Profit (BSP): +26.18
ROI: 17.93%

August was a small loss.
3/28
-6.51

Overall, I think this is going well. I missed a 9.6 winner due to posting the wrong qualifier, a 40-odd qualifier lost the race in the stewards room, a 17 odd shot traded at 1.02 and a 44 shot traded at 1.14. Long losing runs but I think it's worth sticking with.
 
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