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Trainer change systems

pawras

Gelding
these threads get little interest unfortunately. There was a discussion on here a few years ago that had an in-depth post about trainer changes ... its something that comes up a lot in the USA racing because of the number of claiming races .. some trainers do well when they are running first time for a new trainer, others take two or three runs before they have them dialed in.

edit : Just found the thread i was referring to, some good reading here. No idea if the same numbers apply, but probably worth dragging up and updating.


pawras pawras was involved in the initial findings, did you ever follow this up pawras pawras ? Anything interesting thrown out there?
I haven't looked at this since then but greyabbey newcomer seems to be doing very well from this kind of angle, well done
 
The jumps system is the most simple one. Any yard, having had a previous run for another yard in the last 6 weeks, is profitable (75% ROI to BFSP over 10 years). I try and avoid trainer-based criteria unless I think there's good reason. I quite like the Max Young yard and 2 or 3 of them have been heavily backed and it just hasn't happened.
 

pawras

Gelding
The jumps system is the most simple one. Any yard, having had a previous run for another yard in the last 6 weeks, is profitable (75% ROI to BFSP over 10 years). I try and avoid trainer-based criteria unless I think there's good reason. I quite like the Max Young yard and 2 or 3 of them have been heavily backed and it just hasn't happened.
Do you allow multiple runs? I.e. starts off with Trainer A, moves to Trainer B and then has x number of runs in the 6 weeks after the trainer change?
 
No, just the one. Not sure how I'd code that in HRB except to manually do it or add another system (eg 1 run, then <6 weeks since last run). Generally, I've found allowing trainers 2 shots isn't profitable. 1 can work, or they need a few goes in which case you're just keeping a general race reading eye?
 

pawras

Gelding
No, just the one. Not sure how I'd code that in HRB except to manually do it or add another system (eg 1 run, then <6 weeks since last run). Generally, I've found allowing trainers 2 shots isn't profitable. 1 can work, or they need a few goes in which case you're just keeping a general race reading eye?
Wouldn't know re that software I have my own bespoke thing, I just wanted to be clear on your criteria. This is what I got for about 20 yrs worth of data to isp.

First run with new trainer so long as it's within 6 weeks of the trainer change.
1626195651904.png

So I can see how bsp might show a good positive for chase and hurdle hcap, but with those sort of strikes you could easy be looking at some big losing runs.
 
Last edited:
Wouldn't know re that software I have my own bespoke thing, I just wanted to be clear on your criteria. This is what I got for about 20 yrs worth of data to isp.

First run with new trainer so long as it's within 6 weeks of the trainer change.
View attachment 103265

So I can see how bsp might show a good positive for chase and hurdle hcap, but with those sort of strikes you could easy be looking at some big losing runs.
Thanks pawras pawras, really interesting. To clarify, I use that for national hunt handicaps (between 7 and 42 days) with a basic odds filter of 3/1 to 33/1 on morning prices as a guide. I think those filters would hopefully make the chase and hurdle hcap results a little better.
For flat and all weather, that just doesn't work and I refine further. On the flat, I focus on young and unexposed horses (idea: new trainer sees a trick not yet fathomed) and on the AW I focus on a few different things. Guilty of backfitting and happy to share privately, but both profitable on testing here so far at least.
 

pawras

Gelding
Thanks pawras pawras, really interesting. To clarify, I use that for national hunt handicaps (between 7 and 42 days) with a basic odds filter of 3/1 to 33/1 on morning prices as a guide. I think those filters would hopefully make the chase and hurdle hcap results a little better.
For flat and all weather, that just doesn't work and I refine further. On the flat, I focus on young and unexposed horses (idea: new trainer sees a trick not yet fathomed) and on the AW I focus on a few different things. Guilty of backfitting and happy to share privately, but both profitable on testing here so far at least.

Cool if you fancy a bit of joint data mining on the subject just message me
 
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